There's an old saying that Rodney don't get no respect. At least in the following case, the disrespect is warranted.
In the $80M theme my Rodney Scott is having a monumentally bad season. In the league forum I lamented the fact that WIS does not have a built-in WAR calculation, then opined that Scott's would likely be -4 or -5. I then decided to see if I could estimate how close to the mark that guess really was.
According to the interwebs, the lowest single-season WAR in MLB history was Jerry Royster's -4.1 in 1977. And, as it turns out, that Royster season is a good comp for my Rodney Scott, although the fault for that (even above and beyond me rostering him in the first place) is party mine.
First, let's look at offense. OPS+ seems like a good measurement. Royster's was a pitiful 46. It turns out OPS+ is easy to calculate ((OBP/LgAvgOBP)+SLG/LgAvgSLG) - 1)*100), and Rodney's abysmal .188/.249/.224 slash line yields an OPS+ of 40. Advantage, Royster.
Now, defense. Royster split time between 2B, SS and 3B. Comparing innings-weighted averages of his fielding % and range factor, compared to identically weighted league averages of the same, show that Royster's fielding % was 26 points below league average, and his range factor was .22 below league average. Now here's the problem that I created. For some bizarre reason, which is primarily the fact that, for me, an A range factor at SS is some kind of shiny object no matter how bad the fielding rating (in this case, D), I've been playing Scott at SS and Jean Segura at 2B, when it clearly should've been the other way around. So Scott shouldn't be as bad defensively as he's been. Another problem is that it would be time-consuming to calculate league average fielding % and range factor per position, so as a proxy I used an innings-weighted average of the 25 players listed on the SS fielding page in the League Leaders list. And Scott's fielding % is...wait for it...26 points below league average. Exactly the same as Royster. However, his A range has yielded a range factor that's .37 above league average, so slight advantage to Scott.
Finally, there's base stealing. Royster was 28/38, for 74%. Scott is obviously bolstered in this respect by the restrictions on catcher's arms in that theme, and he's 37/45, or 82%, which given the arm restriction is pretty pathetic come to think of it. Still, advantage Scott.
In 1977 Jerry Royster only played in about 68% of his team's innings, and Scott's stats quoted above were from a similar percentage of the eventual total season. So, given how close the two are statistically compared to league average, I think -4 is a pretty good approximation of Scott's current WAR. However, I have pretty much no choice but to start Scott every game, so unless he turns things around his WAR will continue to decrease. I've moved him to 2B to see if that will help, but by the end of the season I expect that he will have registered something along the lines of a -5 to -6 WAR. Truly remarkable, and another way of stating yet another time-tested adage: namely, that I'm a dumbass.