104-game Update
I'm sure Schwarze will do his update here at some point, but I was curious where my teams were stacking up so here's a quick look at things. Note that "50/50 1-run Win%" is what the team's win% would be if you took all their 1-run games and gave them wins in half of them.
13 teams very likely to advance for 11 spots (cuz pedrocerrano is crushing)
These 13 all have 58+ wins (.558+ win%), Exp% of at least .534, and (with one exception) are 6+ games clear of the advancement line (e.g. vs the 7th-best team in the league). The one exception is pedro's 14 CHW team which is only 4 games up in the toughest league (Lg2 NL), but he has a strong win%, exp%, and has 4 teams in this group so two of them will be forfeited anyway.
Essentially, this group will likely take up 11 spots, so almost half of the final round is mostly set.
Rk |
Lg# |
AL/NL |
Div |
Team |
Owner |
W-L |
PCT |
Exp.% |
50/50 1-run Win% |
AdvGB |
1 |
1 |
NL |
West |
85NYG 85DET 87PHI 88IND |
emanes10 |
65-39 |
0.625 |
0.564 |
0.563 |
17 |
2 |
1 |
AL |
West |
88SLB 90PHI 89BAL 89COL |
toysboys |
63-41 |
0.606 |
0.626 |
0.558 |
11 |
3 |
1 |
NL |
Central |
1886 Wolverines + friends |
footballmm11 |
63-41 |
0.606 |
0.548 |
0.577 |
15 |
4 |
1 |
NL |
East |
1886 Chicago White Stockings |
schwarze |
62-42 |
0.596 |
0.579 |
0.577 |
14 |
5 |
2 |
NL |
West |
96 92 O's 92 Bridegrooms 15 Buffalo Feds |
barracuda3 |
61-43 |
0.587 |
0.583 |
0.567 |
6 |
6 |
1 |
AL |
East |
88 NYG - 89 CWS - 87 BALT - 89 WASH |
pedrocerrano |
61-43 |
0.587 |
0.561 |
0.548 |
9 |
7 |
2 |
NL |
Central |
93BOS94BRO97NYG15CHW |
SteveIzzy |
61-43 |
0.587 |
0.540 |
0.582 |
6 |
8 |
2 |
NL |
West |
Nary a Homer to be Found |
mllama54 |
61-43 |
0.587 |
0.538 |
0.577 |
6 |
9 |
2 |
NL |
Central |
14 CHW - 96 CHC - 93 CLEV - 99 WASH |
pedrocerrano |
59-45 |
0.567 |
0.570 |
0.572 |
4 |
10 |
1 |
NL |
East |
91 BOS REDS - 87 LOU - 85 NYM - 90 CLEV |
pedrocerrano |
59-45 |
0.567 |
0.567 |
0.572 |
11 |
11 |
2 |
AL |
West |
95 BALT - 14 KC - 96 PHIL - 15 BALT |
pedrocerrano |
58-46 |
0.558 |
0.564 |
0.591 |
9 |
12 |
2 |
AL |
West |
Turn Your Head and Kauff |
redcped |
58-46 |
0.558 |
0.556 |
0.553 |
9 |
13 |
2 |
AL |
East |
1894 Phillies + friends |
footballmm11 |
58-46 |
0.558 |
0.534 |
0.529 |
9 |
9 teams very likely to be eliminated
These 9 teams are all 45-59 (.433) or worse and at least 6 games out of the final qualification spot. They also have Exp% of .470 or lower (many are far below that even). To advance, these teams would have to make up a lot of ground and play a lot better than their underlying numbers indicate, so they're all likely longshots at this point.
Rk |
Lg# |
AL/NL |
Div |
Team |
Owner |
W-L |
PCT |
Exp.% |
50/50 1-run Win% |
AdvGB |
40 |
2 |
NL |
East |
94 BSN 92CIN 99LOU 92LOU |
toysboys |
45-59 |
0.433 |
0.457 |
0.442 |
-10 |
41 |
1 |
AL |
Central |
1887 Browns + friends |
footballmm11 |
44-60 |
0.423 |
0.467 |
0.438 |
-9 |
42 |
1 |
NL |
West |
19th Century Ohio Players |
DarthDurron |
44-60 |
0.423 |
0.406 |
0.428 |
-6 |
43 |
2 |
AL |
East |
Bigwig's Giant Pirate Senator Spiders |
njbigwig |
43-61 |
0.413 |
0.470 |
0.413 |
-8 |
44 |
1 |
NL |
Central |
Bigwig's Giant Philly Colt Burghers |
njbigwig |
42-62 |
0.404 |
0.410 |
0.471 |
-8 |
45 |
2 |
AL |
West |
great names... all the wrong years |
3dayrotation |
41-63 |
0.394 |
0.373 |
0.394 |
-10 |
46 |
2 |
AL |
Central |
Red Beans a Gassy Colonel Make |
Jtpsops |
40-64 |
0.385 |
0.391 |
0.389 |
-11 |
47 |
1 |
NL |
Central |
Animal Farm |
Taxman2008 |
35-69 |
0.337 |
0.370 |
0.346 |
-15 |
48 |
2 |
NL |
West |
Nap ED Reunion |
Taxman2008 |
34-70 |
0.327 |
0.384 |
0.375 |
-21 |
26 teams on the bubble for 13 spots
These 26 teams are--as you'd guess--right around .500 and right around the cutline. The records span from 56-48 (.538) to 47-57 (.452). The Exp% are in the same range, excluding the highest (.557) and lowest (.446) from this group the rest are between .461 and .534. And nearly all are within 5 games of the cut line, in either direction. glowguy's In Cy we trust and toysboys' 93PIT are the lone exceptions, 7 and 6 games up, respectively. But both have Exp% below .500 so I kept them on the bubble.
As for owners with potentially more than 2 advancers...all of pedro's 4 teams are in the top group. I have two in the top group so my 1895 Phillies are likely to be forfeited if they claim an advancement spot. schwarze has one "lock" and 3 bubble teams, so if he's able to get 2 of the 3 bubble teams through, he'd forfeit one of them. Similarly, redcped has one lock and 2 bubble teams.
Rk |
Lg# |
AL/NL |
Div |
Team |
Owner |
W-L |
PCT |
Exp.% |
50/50 1-run Win% |
AdvGB |
14 |
2 |
NL |
West |
1895 Phillies + friends |
footballmm11 |
56-48 |
0.538 |
0.530 |
0.534 |
1 |
15 |
2 |
AL |
Central |
In Cy we trust or it’s bust |
glowguy |
56-48 |
0.538 |
0.481 |
0.529 |
7 |
16 |
1 |
AL |
West |
Sam Trottin' Along |
richiebrown6 |
55-49 |
0.529 |
0.515 |
0.514 |
3 |
17 |
2 |
NL |
East |
Joyce and Re-Joyce |
redcped |
55-49 |
0.529 |
0.515 |
0.486 |
0 |
18 |
2 |
NL |
Central |
Goshen Redhawks |
ybjsports |
55-49 |
0.529 |
0.503 |
0.514 |
0 |
19 |
2 |
AL |
West |
93PIT 99BSN 93CIN 14SLT |
toysboys |
55-49 |
0.529 |
0.494 |
0.510 |
6 |
20 |
1 |
AL |
East |
85 Browns,87 Quakers,89 Spiders,90 Reds |
kstober |
55-49 |
0.529 |
0.472 |
0.481 |
3 |
21 |
1 |
AL |
Central |
Bigwig's Athletic Brown Bison Brewers |
njbigwig |
54-50 |
0.519 |
0.557 |
0.519 |
2 |
22 |
1 |
AL |
West |
1889 New York Giants |
schwarze |
53-51 |
0.510 |
0.493 |
0.514 |
1 |
23 |
2 |
NL |
Central |
92 Beans, 94 Colts 98 Pirates, 01 O's |
kstober |
53-51 |
0.510 |
0.478 |
0.486 |
-2 |
24 |
2 |
NL |
East |
Gonna Be Ugy II |
Bill_James47 |
53-51 |
0.510 |
0.461 |
0.500 |
-2 |
25 |
1 |
AL |
Central |
Kelly, Clarkson |
nocomm999 |
52-52 |
0.500 |
0.508 |
0.519 |
-1 |
26 |
1 |
AL |
East |
The Colonel Loves Eating Beans |
Jtpsops |
52-52 |
0.500 |
0.475 |
0.500 |
-1 |
27 |
2 |
AL |
East |
Kelley's Heroes |
nocomm999 |
51-53 |
0.490 |
0.534 |
0.505 |
2 |
28 |
1 |
NL |
East |
i've got two glass "roosters" |
3dayrotation |
51-53 |
0.490 |
0.468 |
0.510 |
3 |
29 |
2 |
NL |
East |
1915 St. Louis Terriers |
schwarze |
50-54 |
0.481 |
0.519 |
0.500 |
-5 |
30 |
1 |
NL |
East |
Gonna Be Ugly |
Bill_James47 |
50-54 |
0.481 |
0.486 |
0.500 |
2 |
31 |
1 |
AL |
Central |
Puzzled again |
BeAllEndAll |
49-55 |
0.471 |
0.513 |
0.505 |
-4 |
32 |
1 |
AL |
West |
Reading Red Knights |
ybjsports |
49-55 |
0.471 |
0.505 |
0.481 |
-4 |
33 |
2 |
AL |
East |
19th Century Rowdies |
thejuice6 |
49-55 |
0.471 |
0.481 |
0.490 |
-2 |
34 |
2 |
AL |
Central |
1897 Baltimore Orioles |
schwarze |
48-56 |
0.462 |
0.530 |
0.486 |
-3 |
35 |
2 |
AL |
Central |
93PHI 99STL 15PIT 14BRO |
emanes10 |
48-56 |
0.462 |
0.512 |
0.476 |
-3 |
36 |
1 |
NL |
West |
86 Pit,89 A'S,89 Reds, 90 Orioles |
eman7400 |
48-56 |
0.462 |
0.489 |
0.466 |
-2 |
37 |
1 |
AL |
East |
Nary a Decent Fielder |
mllama54 |
48-56 |
0.462 |
0.446 |
0.471 |
-5 |
38 |
1 |
NL |
West |
The Two Jake Beckleys |
calhoop |
47-57 |
0.452 |
0.498 |
0.514 |
-3 |
39 |
1 |
NL |
Central |
Sam Wise and 1 Browning to Rule Them All |
redcped |
47-57 |
0.452 |
0.463 |
0.428 |
-3 |