My bunch is teetering on the precipice of irrelevance. Slipped below .500 overall for the first time since opening day and just suffered another 2-4. Couple of pitching staffs are one more bad start from death spiral of fatigue.

Hanging in there despite one stinker
One mistake away from missing the clinker
Hard to keep up with every game under the sun
when your RL dynasty baseball team is second to none
Yeli’s back Lindor awakes from his slumber
And JD Martinez proves age is just a number
King Tuck King Tuck oh where did thou go
Now Bradish needs TJ this season a rodeo
Surely this was the one to win it all
But just like the four seasons, we inevitably reach the fall

Posted by redcped on 6/13/2024 6:26:00 PM (view original):

Posted by redcped on 6/6/2024 1:32:00 PM (view original):
One-run losses are just killing me ... Up to 6-17 now after 3 more this cycle.

70M: 0-2 (.500 Win% vs. .500 Exp%)
80M: 2-1 (.571 Win% vs. .594 Exp%)
100M: 2-2 (.357 Win% vs. .304 Exp%)
110M: 1-2 (.571 Win% vs. .658 Exp%)
120M: 0-6 (.286 Win% vs. .515 Exp%)
140M: 1-4 (.357 Win% vs. .561 Exp%)

On the bright side, all but my 100M team show actual promise of being competitive. And that's the only team that is winning more than expected, awful as it is. The 120M and 140M teams are just ridiculously out of whack, though.

Let's see how things are going a week later ... We got within a good cycle of .500 overall but posted a 2-4 in the pm2 thanks to 3 more 1-run losses. So the answer to "will it even out in the long run" remains stubbornly elusive.

70M: 2-5 (.528 Win% vs. .530 Exp%)
80M: 4-2 (.556 Win% vs. .579 Exp%)
100M: 5-9 (.417 Win% vs. .439 Exp%)
110M: 5-6 (.583 Win% vs. .641 Exp%)
120M: 1-8 (.417 Win% vs. .514 Exp%)
140M: 5-7 (.417 Win% vs. .465 Exp%)

So every team is underperforming, if I'm looking for any bright spots. A 22-40 record in 1-run games will tend to do that.

After a slow start that had us ranked down in the 50s for a while, we've climbed to 12 games over .500 and up to 30th, definitely in sight of the Cage.

70M: 8-7 (.538 Win% vs. .520 Exp%)
80M: 6-3 (.519 Win% vs. .552 Exp%)
100M: 10-11 (.481 Win% vs. .481 Exp%)
110M: 8-8 (.615 Win% vs. .632 Exp%)
120M: 7-9 (.519 Win% vs. .578 Exp%)
140M: 6-9 (.442 Win% vs. .464 Exp%)

Now 45-47 in 1-run games, which means we've gone 23-7 in them since my previous post! Now that things have evened out as we approach the 1/3 point of the season, with two teams still under .500 in Exp% I have to think it's going to be a tight race to try to sneak into R2. Four underperforming teams at least provide some hope that the scales will keep shifting.

My 1st WISC is a failure. Clearly should have spent more time on a couple my teams.....I didnt expect to Win but definitely didnt expect to finish outside the Top 50. Took some serious gambles that are blowing up in my face. My goal now is to learn and be a pain in the *** to other owners who take my teams for granted...hahaha.

Game of the tournament so far -- the Boxes go to the 13th tied 2-2 after Horlen, Roberts, and Dean go 12 fantastic innings. Pinch hitters, pinch runners, both teams using the whole bench. 81% Earl Smith throws out 43-for-47 SB Jim Wynn but we go up one anyway. Then Bill freaking North hits his first HR of the season off 269 HR/9+ Don McMahon and we lose 4-3. Ya can't make it up!! @#*($&)

I wish my dad could have seen my performance this year. He'd have two reactions

1. I'm proud of you, David
2. I will figure out how to beat you.

He was a fearsome competitor

Back-to-back 5-1s!! We’re not dead yet!

Posted by tigerrott on 6/23/2024 1:10:00 PM (view original):
I wish my dad could have seen my performance this year. He'd have two reactions

1. I'm proud of you, David
2. I will figure out how to beat you.

He was a fearsome competitor

Your dad is missed. And marinerott was indeed a fearsome competitor.

Why in the hell would the sim let Harvey Haddix bat with the leadoff man on base in the bottom of the 9th of a damn tie game?!?!

Posted by Qhadow123 on 6/24/2024 6:53:00 PM (view original):
Why in the hell would the sim let Harvey Haddix bat with the leadoff man on base in the bottom of the 9th of a damn tie game?!?!

Expecting him to pitch 12 perfect innings would be my only guess.

Actual vs Exoected Win % for all my teams:

$70M - .458 (.520)
$80M - .417 (.469)
$100M - .514 (.561)
$110M - .500 (.482)
$120M - .500 (.579)
$140M - .444 (.465)

Shouldnt necessarily be dominating but I should be a lot better overall than I am. That’s 20+ wins below expected.

Posted by Jtpsops on 6/25/2024 8:16:00 PM (view original):
Actual vs Exoected Win % for all my teams:

$70M - .458 (.520)
$80M - .417 (.469)
$100M - .514 (.561)
$110M - .500 (.482)
$120M - .500 (.579)
$140M - .444 (.465)

Shouldnt necessarily be dominating but I should be a lot better overall than I am. That’s 20+ wins below expected.

Exp% is only according to your runs differential.... if you win big vs weaker teams it might look like you should have a better win% but it's not always the case

In leagues with 200k mopup pitchers and/or fatigued pitchers, Exp Win% can be skewed.

1-run record is a better indicator of good or bad luck.

I just returned from a three-day trip to Kansas City. Before I left, my record was the best it had ever been at this point of Round One in all of the years I've participated in the WISC. While I was gone, the team that I didn't expect much from (the $70M team) went 8-2 and is currently on a W7 (kick in jinx here). Unfortunately, the other five teams combined for a 12-38 record. Unless a miracle occurs fairly soon, I'm pretty sure that this is the beginning of the end of my dream of making the Cage (please kick in reverse jinx here).

Posted by d_rock97 on 6/19/2024 3:10:00 AM (view original):
Hanging in there despite one stinker
One mistake away from missing the clinker
Hard to keep up with every game under the sun
when your RL dynasty baseball team is second to none
Yeli’s back Lindor awakes from his slumber
And JD Martinez proves age is just a number
King Tuck King Tuck oh where did thou go
Now Bradish needs TJ this season a rodeo
Surely this was the one to win it all
But just like the four seasons, we inevitably reach the fall

heh!