Another mauch. Really no point in checking in regularly anymore, as any matchup decisions are completely irrelevant to the algorithm.

5 of my 6 teams are below their expected win totals.

Had a Mauch 3 cycles ago and a Schwarze in the pm today. My $120M team just finished a 10 game losing streak after starting off 14-7. What a rollercoaster.

All 6 teams below their projected win totals now.

I'll check back in in a couple weeks. Maybe something will have changed by then.

The two teams I researched the most are my poorest performing teams - the $70m and $80m teams. Paralysis by analysis.

Zero winning sessions since the second 162-game period has started. Every session 3-3 or 2-4... slowly dropping out of the cage... death by paper cuts.

Posted by redcped on 6/6/2024 1:32:00 PM (view original):
One-run losses are just killing me ... Up to 6-17 now after 3 more this cycle.

70M: 0-2 (.500 Win% vs. .500 Exp%)
80M: 2-1 (.571 Win% vs. .594 Exp%)
100M: 2-2 (.357 Win% vs. .304 Exp%)
110M: 1-2 (.571 Win% vs. .658 Exp%)
120M: 0-6 (.286 Win% vs. .515 Exp%)
140M: 1-4 (.357 Win% vs. .561 Exp%)

On the bright side, all but my 100M team show actual promise of being competitive. And that's the only team that is winning more than expected, awful as it is. The 120M and 140M teams are just ridiculously out of whack, though.

Let's see how things are going a week later ... We got within a good cycle of .500 overall but posted a 2-4 in the pm2 thanks to 3 more 1-run losses. So the answer to "will it even out in the long run" remains stubbornly elusive.

70M: 2-5 (.528 Win% vs. .530 Exp%)
80M: 4-2 (.556 Win% vs. .579 Exp%)
100M: 5-9 (.417 Win% vs. .439 Exp%)
110M: 5-6 (.583 Win% vs. .641 Exp%)
120M: 1-8 (.417 Win% vs. .514 Exp%)
140M: 5-7 (.417 Win% vs. .465 Exp%)

So every team is underperforming, if I'm looking for any bright spots. A 22-40 record in 1-run games will tend to do that.

Posted by schwarze on 6/13/2024 11:30:00 AM (view original):
Zero winning sessions since the second 162-game period has started. Every session 3-3 or 2-4... slowly dropping out of the cage... death by paper cuts.

Followed by 0-6. I'd rather have the paper cuts than the kick to the groin.

We just stole 15 bases in the am game. Insane.

The three best teams in my $80m league are ranked 1st, 2nd and 4th in stolen bases.

90-72 after the first 162 games. Since then, 17 straight sessions of 3-3 or worse. Unreal.

How do you know a team's expected win% ??

Change the view of your team center from Basic to Advanced

Posted by schwarze on 6/14/2024 4:08:00 PM (view original):
90-72 after the first 162 games. Since then, 17 straight sessions of 3-3 or worse. Unreal.

First world problems.

my $70M team was 15-15. They’ve since lost 9 straight to drop to 15-24. Yet our expected win % is still at .500

This is why I hate this damn game.

I'm going through a stretch similar to schwarze. And I've realized that even though I'm normally somewhere between optimist and realist, when it comes to the WISC, my basic belief is:
--If I'm on a hot streak, I expect regression to the mean imminently
--If I'm on a cold streak, I think all my teams stink and I'll never see the cage for R2

1/4 of the way to the cage
a fair dose of Jtpsops rage
70M brilliance from Mitchell Page
Losing streaks we strive to assuage
It’s Tigerott we must upstage

brought to you by the anonymous owner whose 0 stamina mop-ups have contributed 30+ runs to inflated expected win percentages everywhere

Haha nicely done rebjebb