Collective Strategy:
As mentioned in the past, given what I've seen with HRs allowed vs errors in overall RA/G, and how the HR impact was priced in, such that a pitcher similarly priced as another pitcher will essentially have the same RA/9 without regard to how they get to it. I generally don’t even look at the HR/9 for the pitchers I draft, most of the time, their HR/9 is relatively high.
I've also continued to play around with very heavily offensive oriented teams maximizing every roster spot with typically 2-4 platoons to use every $ productively. I no longer draft $200k scrubs or mop ups.
I have become a huge fan of non-traditional pitching staffs that are built almost entirely of RPs or shorter IP SPs. There's so much value in these pitchers with 80-130 IP, especially with IP/G <2. On most teams these days I run pitching staffs of 11-13 80-130 IP guys at roughly a 20-30% discount to a similar staff built around higher IP/G or traditional roles due to dynamic pricing and most of these guys being generally ignored as it takes a little more careful effort to use them effectively.
I really like to use players I’ve never used before, and I like to maximize value as much as possible. I prefer pitchers post-1960 and hitters pre-1930 (but especially from the 1880s).
So, as you read through each of the team specific thought processes below, remember that all of them start with this basic set of goals.
$70m: 2023 Tampa Bay Rays - Tropicana Field (-1, 0, 1, -1/-1):
No secret that I love the low caps. The lower the better. My favorite is $25-40m and have been delighted to have the old HLCYG theme revived of late. I started with this one. I had an initial idea of trying to find a team that had a bunch of great players, but that was missing 1-2 key pieces. My main thought was:
Try to avoid 1969-70 and pre-WW2 era teams due to dynamic pricing making most of these teams above $70m, which meant I’d mostly be using my FA to downgrade, not upgrade, at least salary-wise.
I started with the 1996 Florida Marlins. This was a team that was right around .500, had legit stars in Sheffield and Brown, and great pieces like Devon White, Charles Johnson, etc… They were solid, but even with the FA, there was too much wasted salary on the bench. They didn’t have enough PA to be useful platoon players, and the starters had enough PA to not need to platoon, so I’d end up either replacing most of the bench with $200k scrubs and still waste $1.2-1.5m, or I needed to look elsewhere and find a team that better utilized it’s pieces. They also had nearly 1500 IP, which is overkill at any cap, except $180m+, so that was also a factor.
I decided I needed to look for a team that emphasized platoons and shuffling pitchers. After seeing some of the salaries for the ‘96 team, I also added a third thought in that I now wanted to focus entirely on 2017-2023 to minimize dynamic pricing impact altogether. Obviously, the Rays are a standout team in playing matchup baseball, so I figured I’d look at their 2017-2023 teams and see what came up.
However, when I did my search, the 2017 starting year didn’t take, so I only searched for 2023. Which may or may not have worked to my advantage. This team was perfect. Only offensive shortcoming was catcher, easily fixed with FA 1, and pitching-wise, they utilized the matchup game so well, they were about 200 innings short of my target IP. FA 2 helped with that, though, I’m still about 45 IP short of where I’d ideally like to be. If I’m going to be short IP in any league, this is the one. Plus, this whole roster has high RL K/9 pitchers, so they should all benefit from throwing less pitches than allocated and not fatigue as much as other pitchers might. Especially, if as I expect, most owners draft teams pre-1980. The negative hit factor of my park –and I also expect, most parks – should also help here. I liked this one so much, despite the short IP, I didn’t even bother to look at the other six seasons I meant to check out. I also had the idea long after I entered this team, that I probably should have looked at the ‘17-20 Cubs knowing they have a bunch of guys who are great at lower caps like Zobrist, Happ, Schwarber, Baez, plus Hendricks to anchor a rotation, but I never even looked at any of them… So, I’ll be curious to see how many other Cubs and Rays teams from these eras show up.
LINEUP (FA Italicized):
C Keibert Ruiz .260/.308/.409
1B Yandy Diaz .330/.410/.522
2B Brandon Lowe .231/.328/.443
3B Isaac Parades .250/.352/.488
SS Wander Franco .281/.344/.475
LF Luke Raley .249/.333/.490
CF Josh Lowe .292/.335/.500
RF Randy Arozarena .254/.364/.425
Platoon Pieces:
OF Michael Brantley .278/.298/.426
2B/3B/SS Taylor Walls .201/.305/.333
1B/OF Harold Ramirez .313/.353/.460
ALL Osleivis Basabe .218/.277/.310
I'm running a 3-man rotation with:
Taj Bradley 105 IP 5.59/.255/1.39
Logan Webb 216 IP 3.25/.248/1.07
Zach Eflin 178 IP 3.50/.235/1.02
Key Bullpen Pieces:
Shane McClanahan 115 IP 3.29/.222/1.18
Tyler Glasnow 120 IP 3.53/.209/1.08
Overall stat lines:
Hitting: 5,155 PA, .268 AVG, .344 OBP, .455 SLG w/ 194 HR and 134 SB (80% success rate).
Pitching: 1,208 IP, 3.39 ERA, .226 OAV, 1.11 WHIP, 0.99 HR/9
$80m: Double Teaming Hit Parade - Hilltop Park (+3, +3, +3, 0/-3)
For this theme one of the obvious choices was to lean hard into SB to take advantage of the lack of quality C arms, especially with the requirement of a minimum of 300 SB. A bunch of guys like Raines, Rickey, Coleman, Willis in Dodger Stadium to give them the best shot at just getting on base and then running around. I’ve done that in OL a couple of times and it was fun. Not as fun when at least a good percentage of other teams will be trotting out that same strategy. I thought it would be fun to go for a power/speed team and had a fun roster with Bonds, Marte, Carroll, Bonilla, and I ended up with 313 SB and 306 HR. But I didn’t really like the balance on defense or how HR reliant the team truly was. I figure with the mostly post-WW2 era most owners would be looking to minimize HRs with their ballparks and that we’d see a bunch of Dodger, Target, Petco, etc.
Then, I thought, if there’s a bunch of Dodger Stadiums, I could try to capitalize on the +hit factor and go all in on AVG and then take that to an extreme. My initial thought had me building this team for Coors where their park adjusted AVG# for Coors would be .412. I loaded up on doubles hitters as a secondary factor to try to drive in as many runs as possible. No player has less than 7 2B/100#, with a couple of them reaching 10+ 2B/100#. Factor in Hilltop with the +3 hit factor and the +3 2B factor, their park adjusted AVG# is .404 and they would be expected to hit more than 350 doubles. Now, the other side of this is my opponents ballparks, so if everyone is in Dodger, expect my team to hit close to .385 with around 300 doubles. If mostly Petco, somewhere around .330 with about 265 doubles. In any case, this offense should be on base constantly and hit lots of 2B.
For pitching, I made two assumptions, most everyone is going to lean into SB, others may flirt with the idea of a power/speed team and add some HRs, especially with more modern pitchers, but that overall, I wouldn’t run into too many HRs and there will be more Target fields to combat that strategy than there will be HR oriented teams. Teams leaning into SB are mostly going to be low BB rate singles hitters, so in addition to ignoring HR rate, my pitching staff also ignored BB rate. I focused solely on OAV. I drafted the absolute lowest OAV# I could get. Nothing else mattered.
In the end, I switched off of Coors and settled on Hilltop as I do have a decently high HR/9, also, my entire pitching staff is RH (except for Randy Johnson), so the -3 HR RF will help negate the platoon advantage somewhat when I do run into a HR friendly offense, plus the hit factor and double rate there was only slightly less than Coors, so the overall impact I was going for still holds up.
LINEUP:
RF '01 Ichiro Suzuki .350/.381/.457
CF '71 Ralph Garr .343/.372/.441
LF '89 Tony Gwynn .336/.389/.424
2B '91 Julio Franco .341/.408/.474
SS '21 Trea Turner .328/.375/.536
1B '75 Rod Carew .359/.421/.497
3B '89 Carney Lansford .336/.398/.405
PITCHER
C '12 Jordan Pacheco .270/.363/.351
PH ‘75 Tommy Harper .319/.373/.464
PH ‘90 Joey Cora .270/.311/.300
PH ‘18 Adrian Sanchez .276/.288/.345
Again, I’m running a 3-man rotation:
’20 Justin Dunn 123 IP 4.34/.189/1.36
‘92 Randy Johnson 211 IP 3.77/.206/1.42
‘73 Jim Bibby 197 IP 3.76/.202/1.34
Key Bullpen Pieces:
No RP has more than 96 IP or fewer than 72. OAV ranges between .185-.212, WHIP between 1.28-1.41.
Overall stat lines:
Hitting: 5,464 PA, .335 AVG, .383 OBP, .451 SLG 301 SB (77% success rate)
Pitching: 1,348 IP, 3.71 ERA, .200 OAV, 1.35 WHIP, 0.98 HR/9
$100m: Boxed Into Claude Raymond - Baker Bowl (0, +4, +1, +2/+1)
After some initial frustrations trying to figure out the best way to approach this theme and build a team that fit my overall team building strategy, I finally built one I was comfortable with and received a message that my team was illegal as I had players post-1980 (four of them as a result of taking the 1993 Fisk and 1984 Schmidt. Ironically, both hitters were taken because of who I could get from their pitching teammates (Roberto Hernandez and John Denny). I already knew that team was only already an acceptable compromise, and I would now be very unlikely to be able to draft a pitching staff I liked that didn’t have any pitchers with more than 170 IP and that now my only options at catcher were Torre or Hartnett since I already had my catcher platoon from other boxes that were too valuable to my preferred playstyle to disrupt, and that the only teammate of Torre’s that fit my requirements was Seaver, who is another box player, and who I also already had, and Hartnett, whose pitching teammates sucked for what I was trying to build. Which really limited me to either a complete redraft and trying not to draft a team the way I like with all of my pitchers between 70-150 IP and more limited platoons, or I’d have to compromise on quality. Budget wasn’t the issue… Could’ve made this work several ways with the players from the boxes if the years restriction wasn’t there, or their usable teammates weren’t literally all in other boxes, or if they had just as many seasons at positions they weren’t assigned to than the one they were. So, it really came down to, compromise on quality or compromise on how I like to build my teams. I did the quality compromise. I’d rather draft teams that play how I like than to win. So, I sacrificed a bunch of OAV, WHIP, BB/9, and HR/9 to keep my pitchers and rotational setup how I like. I sacrificed AVG, OBP, and defense to keep platoons and minimize wasted PA or salary. I still had some waste with high IP pitchers and $200k Torre. Which really frustrated me. Even more so when I realized in my shuffle of trying to do this, I ended up with two players from Box 6 and none from Box 11. At this point, I never even considered a round 2 team here because the amount of effort and time spent – just to make one team I was barely OK with even as a compromise – was more time of almost pure frustration that I hoped to not have to deal with again. Thinking was: If I do make round 2, I’ll conform and just draft a boring cookie team with the standard 3-man rotations and such so I don’t have to even think about building a fun team. At this point, I knew redraft was necessary, and there was likely no way to draft the team I was trying to. I also posted most of this and my original drafted final thoughts (which I’ve removed from here) in the other thread.
At this point I did two things simultaneously:
1. I modified the WIS salary sheets to only include the 1920-1980 seasons, removed a handful of stats and added a couple of custom normalized stats, and removed all players except the box players and their teammates. I also put together a script to iterate through combinations within specific parameters of PA ranges, IP ranges, hitting and pitching salary ranges, stats to focus on, etc to have the script choose the most optimal team within the constraints I gave by selecting box players and their teammates. It took the script 37 hours to give me the following roster:
1920 Dave Bancroft
1920 Cy Williams
1923 Jim Bottomley
1923 Rogers Hornsby
1924 Babe Adams
1924 Eddie Moore
1925 Tris Speaker
1925 Joe Klugmann
1927 Gabby Hartnett
1927 Fred Haney
1940 Joe Dimaggio
1940 Tiny Bonham
1942 Jimmie Foxx
1942 Bill Butland
1943 Harry Brecheen
1943 Howie Pollet
1954 Al Rosen
1954 Don Mossi
1968 Andy Messersmith
1968 Tom Murphy
1968 Wilbur Wood
1968 Hoyt Wilhelm
1968 Don McMahon
1979 Bruce Sutter
1979 Ken Henderson
This was my favorite offense, however, while I gave it IP constraints for the individual pitchers, I didn’t for the whole team, and it was about 100 IP short from where I felt comfortable at this level (1,251 total IP). I thought about adding in the team-wide IP restraint and re-running it, but I had a short trip over the holiday weekend that ended up leaving me without the time to work on this more, and by the time I was back, I definitely didn’t have even half a day to let the script run, let alone up to 3-days…
2. While the script was doing its thing, I worked on two distinct teams, one that would meet as many of my fun criteria as possible for the pitching staff without concern for the hitting meeting my ideals and ended up with a team that was close to what I’d like to see from a pitching staff (had to make a couple of compromises, but overall I like the pitching). From my hitting, I had to make a large number of compromises and really only like about half the lineup, but I do have a couple of interesting platoons and virtually no wasted salary across 5400 PA and 1380 IP. It’s not a team I would ever intentionally build, and it’s not quite how I like to build my rosters, but it’s close enough that I went ahead and entered it. The other I worked on was one designed to just draft the cheapest pitching staff regardless of how I got the IP as long as it had at least 1,330 and no more than 1,420. It had just 7 pitchers, and a fun offense, but I didn’t like it as much as the one above.
If perchance, I make it to round two, I’ll fine tune the script a little more and give it the restraints to cut out the players I’ve already used and use whatever it gives me just for kicks.
LINEUP (box selections italicized):
SS '20 Dave Bancroft .299/.346/.387
LF ‘25 Ty Cobb .378/.468/.598
CF ‘20 Cy Williams .325/.364/.497
2B ‘24 Frankie Frisch .300/.374/.441
RF ‘40 Joe Dimaggio .352/.425/.626
1B ‘46 Roy Cullenbine .335/.477/.537
3B ‘54 Al Rosen .300/.404/.506
PITCHER
C ‘37 Gabby Hartnett .354/.424/.548
Platooning with the following key players giving PA at LF, 1B, 3B, and C:
‘25 Bob Fothergill .353/.377/.451
‘46 Doc Cramer .294/.342/.368
‘42 Jimmie Foxx .270/.392/.460
‘37 Lonny Frey .278/.381/.369
Still running a 3-man rotation:
'40 Tiny Bonham 105 IP, 1.90/.224/0.97
‘66 Gary Peters 205 IP, 1.98/.212/0.98
‘72 Vida Blue 158 IP, 2.80/.215/1.09
Key Bullpen Pieces:
‘42 Bill Butland 119 IP, 2.51/.206/1.06
‘54 Don Mossi 98 IP, 1.94/.176/1.02
‘65 Robin Roberts 76 IP 1.89/.216/0.93
‘66 Bob Locker 95 IP, 2.46/.206/.1.01
‘66 Hoyt Wilhelm 82 IP, 1.66/.178/0.83
‘68 Andy Messersmith 82 IP, 2.21/.157/0.98
‘68 Tom Murphy 100 IP, 2.17/.191/0.96
‘72 Rollie Fingers 117 IP, 2.51/.212/1.05
Overall stat lines:
Hitting: 5,485 PA, .323 AVG, .398 OBP, .492 SLG
Pitching: 1,384 IP, 2.26 ERA, .206 OAV, 1.00 WHIP, 0.47 HR/9
$110m: Fort Huachuca Nine - Fenway Park (+2, +4, 0, +1/0)
I only looked at one season and unlike my normal strategy, I built my offense first. Any chance I can use ‘99 Delahanty, I do. Plus ‘19 Ruth, an opportunity to use Hornsby and Foxx and Ted Williams! Done… I was all in on offense. I had to adjust slightly and drop Foxx as I couldn’t quite afford him and a C and still provide what I felt was a moderately competitive pitching staff. If only the ‘39 Foxx qualified at C. My only real disappointment was having to take ‘99 Brian Anderson for IP purposes. If only Williams salary was a few thousand less and I could’ve made those IP up with Bobby Shantz, whom I liked much better. That said, I have this crazy offense that hits tons of doubles in Fenway. My pitching is a little suspect, but mostly on BB rate, OAV is tenable for the ballpark and cap, but if we aren’t destroying pitching staffs, then we aren’t winning, so we leaned into this fully.
LINEUP (Hero Italicized):
3B ‘89 Wade Boggs .330/.430/.449
2B ‘29 Rogers Hornsby .380/.459/.679
LF ‘49 Ted Williams .343/.490/.650
CF ‘99 Ed Delahanty .410/.464/.582
RF ‘19 Babe Ruth .322/.456/.657
SS ‘09 Honus Wagner .339/.420/.489
DH ‘59 Joe Cunningham .345/.453/.478 & ‘69 Tito Francona .341/.418/.541
1B ‘09 Nick Johnson .291/.426/.405 & ‘19 Asdrubal Cabrera .323/.404/.565
C ‘99 Jason Kendall .332/.428/.511 & ‘39 Don Padgett .399/.444/.554
DH/1B ‘79 Terry Crowley .317/.449/.476
With another 3-man rotation of:
‘69 Jim Nash 116 IP 3.67/.247/.1.23
‘19 Shane Bieber 214 IP 3.28/.230/1.05
‘09 Ted Lilly 178 IP 3.10/.230/1.06
Key Bullpen Pieces:
‘59 Bill Henry 142 IP 2.68/.227/1.02
‘79 John Fulgham 146 IP 2.53/.227/1.02
‘89 Mark Grant 117 IP 3.33/.248/1.18
‘39 Oral Hildebrand 136 IP 3.06/.219/.1.13
Overall stat lines:
Hitting: 6,322 PA, .348 AVG, .448 OBP, .551 SLG
Pitching: 1,333 IP, 3.20 ERA, .236 OAV, 1.11 WHIP, 0.98 HR/9
$120M: DOPY Sox - Dodger Stadium (+2, -4, -3 -1/-1)
I really struggled on this team to get a roster together anywhere close to the $120m cap. At one point I even messaged another owner “how does anyone draft for caps this high? Maxing out the salary here is REALLY HARD and I’m drafting guys like ‘27 Ruth who cost $15m!” At that point and iteration of this team I had three $10m+ hitters and my roster came in at $115.7m. Prior tries had me at $110.3m, $110.1m, and the only one I got to even $118m had 800 excess PA and two mopup pitchers. After those messages I managed to get one to $116.4m and wondered if I should just grab $4m in wasted salary to fill the cap on excess PA or IP bench pieces. In the end, I definitely have around 400 excess PA and probably around 50-75 excess IP, but I managed to get to $119.6m. So… For those of you that managed to effectively squeeze out your cap better, kudos.
I started with my pitching and honed in on the 2020 Dodgers, 1990 Pirates, 1994 Expos, 1965 White Sox… I looked at how they pieced together and took the Pirates over the Expos and then went about trying to figure out the offense. I quickly settled on the 1896 Orioles, and after some trial and error the 1927 Yankees. I still have Ruth, as well as the $12m Hughie Jennings.
LINEUP:
LF ‘96 Willie Keeler .386/.432/.496
SS ‘96 Hughie Jennings .401/.472/.488
1B ‘27 Babe Ruth .356/.487/.772
CF ‘27 Earl Combs .356/.414/.511
RF ‘90 Barry Bonds .301/.406/.565
C ‘27 Pat Collins .275/.407/.418 & ‘20 Will Smith .289/.401/.579
3B ‘90 Wally Backman .292/.374/.397 & ‘20 Justin Turner .307/.400/.460
2B ‘65 Don Buford .283/.358/.389
PH ‘96 John McGraw .325/.422/.403
As has probably come to be expected, another 3-man rotation with
‘20 Walker Buehler 99 IP, 3.44/.178/0.95
‘90 Doug Drabek 232 IP, 2.76/.225/1.06
‘27 Wilcy Moore 225 IP, 2.28/.234/1.15
Key Bullpen Pieces:
‘20 Clayton Kershaw 157 IP, 2.16/.194/0.84
‘65 Eddie Fisher 166 IP, 2.40/.205/0.98
‘65 Hoyt Wilhelm 144 IP, 1.81/.177/0.83
‘20 Tony Gonsolin 126 IP, 2.31/.193/0.84
Overall stat lines:
Hitting: 6,063 PA, .333 AVG, .419 OBP, .508 SLG
Pitching: 1,465 IP, 2.49 ERA, .213 OAV, 1.00 WHIP, 0.62 HR/9
$140m: UCL Gang with Babe & Jackie - Robison Field (-1,0,0,-1/+2)
For my three main clones on the pyramid I immediately knew it would be some combination of Kershaw, deGrom, and Ruth. As soon as I saw there was a DH, I knew exactly how that trio would be sorted. 5 Ruth, 4 each of the other two. deGrom and Kershaw are solid in their own right, but Kershaw helps combat all the Ruth, deGrom all those who think about all the Kershaws and build RH heavy lineups. Now my offensive and pitching core were both set. I just needed to fill in some pieces around them. I was looking for a pitcher with three seasons of similar nature to deGrom and Kershaw, and a 2nd pitcher with two seasons of that same nature, but in both cases I just needed seasons between 40-60 IP, so it wasn’t too hard to find Josh Hader and Shawn Armstrong. My pitching staff was set and is easily the best staff I’ve used in this year’s tourney, and maybe over the last 3-5 years. On offense, I had 1B, DH, and my OF done, so I was looking for 2B, 3B, SS, C and a couple of bench pieces. I initially thought Foxx or Hornsby would fit well knowing I could grab Foxx at C and 3B, Hornsby at 2B and 3B, but as I looked for 3B, Jackie Robinson stood out and (obviously) also had a stellar 2B option. This meant I filled out the 2,3,4,5,4,2 on my pyramid and just needed the 1’s and a 3 on offense. I figured I’d get my 3 at C with a platoon of some sorts and a backup. Thought someone like Clements, but no, at SS, I saw exactly what I was looking for. Jose Iglesias. His 2020-2021 give 470 PA of elite bat at a premium position for relatively cheap, and his 2013 is roughly average bat over 150 PA to give me a solid full 617 PA of SS for $5.5m while using 3 of the same player. Now I just needed to grab a C platoon with my last two pieces of the pyramid, both my 1’s as luck would have it. I found an inexpensive but solid full time bat in low cap hero, Victor Martinez, which left me just enough to grab some 2B/3B PA just in case Jackie gets fatigued in this stacked lineup with the 67 PA ‘91 Freddie Benavides for $254k. Leaving me with a team I was very happy with on essentially a first pass even though I definitely went different directions than I initially thought on most of my infield choices.
I already don’t remember why I chose the ballpark I chose, but who am I to second guess myself at this point.
LINEUP:
LF ‘24 Babe Ruth .378/.513/.739
RF ‘28 Babe Ruth .323/.461/.709
CF ‘26 Babe Ruth .372/.516/.737
C ‘06 Victor Martinez .316/.391/.465
2B ‘50 Jackie Robinson .328/.423/.500
1B ‘19 Babe Ruth .322/.456/.657
DH ‘32 Babe Ruth .341/.489/.661
3B ‘53 Jackie Robinson .329/.425/.502
SS ‘20,’21,’13 Jose Iglesias (combined stats) .345/.376/.503
Would you believe me if I told you I had a 4-man rotation?
‘21 Jacob deGrom 92 IP, 1.08/.129/0.55
‘18 Jacob deGrom 217 IP, 1.70/.196/0.91
‘14 Clayton Kershaw 198 IP, 1.77/.196/0.86
‘20 Jacob deGrom 184 IP, 2.38/.190/0.96
Bullpen:
‘16 Clayton Kershaw 149 IP, 1.63/.184/0.72
‘20 Clayton kershaw 157 IP, 2.16/.194/0.84
‘22 Clayton Kershaw 126 IP, 2.28/.206/0.94
‘17 Josh Hader 48 IP, 2.08/.156/0.99
‘20 Josh Hader 51 IP, 3.79/.123/0.95
‘23 Josh Hader 56 IP, 1.28/.163/1.10
‘22 Jacob deGrom 64 IP, 3.08/.175/0.75
‘20 Shawn Armstrong 41 IP, 1.80/.170/0.80
‘23 Shawn Armstrong 52 IP, 1.38/.188/0.90
Overall stat lines:
Hitting: 5,976 PA, .338 AVG, .450 OBP, .602 SLG
Pitching: 1,436 IP, 1.98 ERA, .184 OAV, 0.86 WHIP, 0.71 HR/9
Final Thoughts:
This go around I spent the least amount of time I can remember spending in a WISC on 4 of the 6 teams. The $120m was a struggle to even come close to reaching the cap for me, and the $100m I’ve discussed relatively thoroughly elsewhere. I like my teams overall. I expect the $70m team to be fairly competitive, the $140m, also. The $80m, $110m, and $120m, are fun for me and they may or may not do well, mostly depending on how the rest of my league built their teams and distributive luck. The $100m, I’m just happy it’s done and have minimal fondness for my roster and more excitement around if I get lucky and advance to round 2, to see what the script pulls out. Generally speaking, I expect to finish somewhere around 40-48th overall.