Posted by narcotico on 1/5/2024 11:00:00 PM (view original):
People don't seem to be considering that the attributes of the RB (or QB with INTs)are only one of many possible factors when it comes to determining when turnovers happen.
We don't know everything that goes into turnover calculations, but all of the following factors are potentially in play:
*defensive attributes of the tacklers and other involved units on the fumbles
*defensive attributes(coverage AND pass rush for INTs)
*other offensive attributes(run blocking on fumble plays)
*other offensive attributes(pass protection and pass target for INTs)
*offensive IQs on all involved players/units
*defensive IQs on all involved players/units
*offensive and defensive formations
*offensive and defensive playcalls
*the stamina levels of all the players involved
*good old RNG/luck
In other words 5 fumbles probably involves some bad luck and is definitely a lot more complicated than just looking at your RB's strength, hands, and tech.
A lot of calculations happen on each play.
Sure, I guess defense can play a role. So I decided to look at my opponent's previous games.
UNLV - 39 runs - 0 Fumbles
Army 33 runs - 1 Fumble
Sim 33 runs - 0 Fumbles
Notre Dame 39 runs - 0 Fumbles
Georgia Tech 35 runs - 1 Fumble
Sim 39 runs - 1 Fumble
LSU 39 runs - 5 fumbles
Starting line has 3 SRs and 2JRs. So good IQ. I would bet better than all previous opponents. ND would be similar.
You can't explain away bad and unrealistic algorithms..... or explain how most teams will have more short kickoff recoveries than interceptions in a year.