I was really on a run leading up to the ASB. Now the wheels aren't falling off but they are loose. I have too many teams losing to teams that are 15-20 games under. Hope this turns soon......

Every single one of my Schwarze’s is followed by a 1-5 sesh!!!

Game 100 seems a good time to ask -- how does this work?

What determines who advances to Round 2? Is it purely combined regular season winning pct.? What is the impact of some of your teams making the playoffs? Thanks.

Posted by Qhadow123 on 7/17/2023 11:54:00 AM (view original):
Game 100 seems a good time to ask -- how does this work?

What determines who advances to Round 2? Is it purely combined regular season winning pct.? What is the impact of some of your teams making the playoffs? Thanks.

Excellent question.

Your regular season win total gets added to your playoff points as follows:

Make playoffs = 2 additional points
Each playoff win = 1 additional point
Wins Wildcard round = 2 additional points
Wins LCS = 2 additional points
Wins World Series = 5 additional points

The top 24 after the conclusion of the playoffs will advance to Round 2. Occasionally someone drops out, so if you're 25th or 26th there's a shot too.

PS: Here's how playoff win totals add up:
0 wins = 2 points
1 win = 3
2 wins = 4
3 wins = 7 (wins wildcard round)
4 wins = 8
5 wins = 9
6 wins - 10
7 wins = 13 (wins LCS)
8 wins = 14
9 wins = 15
10 wins = 16
11 wins = 22 points (WS winner)

57-63 record since the midway point. Nobody else in the top 40 overall has done worst since then. I figured there's be some regression. But geez.

Posted by schwarze on 7/17/2023 1:35:00 PM (view original):
57-63 record since the midway point. Nobody else in the top 40 overall has done worst since then. I figured there's be some regression. But geez.

I'm not exactly what anyone would call an optimist, so I've been expecting regression since Opening Day. Part of me believes I'm going to hit a triple mauch every single day. The miracle is we've passed 100 games without it happening yet.

Thanks, redcped.

92% starter guts it out for 8 innings in the Bingo League, leading 8-3. Two relievers, each 100% and each with ERC+ of 190, give up 6 runs in the bottom of the ninth. As Schwarze and others have said, this is the bane of the game.

)*(&@#$@#)(*

Feels like there's been more whining than usual this year (bullpen blows leads, player X is underperforming for me, I went from 2 games up to 2 games back in my division in 5 games, etc.). But maybe that's just my impression.

As per Contrarian’s perception of whining - I know I read every boxscore of my WISC games. For most of my other teams I don’t do that except for playoffs. I find that tends to skew reactions as it’s one thing to glance at a 9-7 loss and set the lineup for the next game, and it’s another thing completely to follow along in the game and see your team blew a 8-1 lead in the 8th to lose 9-7. Also, the WISC games mean more so every bad loss is infuriating. I don’t care who you are it is difficult to make the cage against this level of competition and every game counts. Hence, the tendency to whine a little when things seem to be going against you.

But, to counteract the whining imbalance, I will advise I just completed my first Super Schwarze. 6-0 in the am WISC games and 3-0 in my juice tourney games.

Dark blue first 162, red second 162, blue third 162, red fourth 162.

There is way too much volatility in this game as to what works. I'm so tired of not being able to reliably count on one player or approach beyond a few games.

Just to underscore my point about how difficult it is to make the cage:
- Of the 26 owners currently in the top 25, 23 have been in the cage previously (just Fsmiley, AdSmith, and BillyB are rookies) and 20 have been in at least twice
- 12 have at least 4 cage appearances and 7 have at least 7 appearances
- Of the 7 owners currently in the top 5, they have a combined 47 cage appearances and two titles
- schwarze has 16 previous cage qualifications and 11 overall top 10 finishes while mildnhazy has 15 cages, 9 top 10s and a title
- close behind, jfranco77 has 10 cages, 8 top 10s, and one title and discodemo has an incredible streak of 12 straight cages, and 11 top 10s
- d_rock97 is coming off three straight top 3 finishes
- And don't forget the many multi-cage owners lurking close behind (markeking, newarkwilder, calhoop, doctorcc, ejstockman, etc.) and our defending run-away champion, boogerlips

Yes, I know we're miissing brianjw, 06gsp and many other current top-notch owners but there are no gimmies in this tourney and never are. Thanks to all the new owners trying this challenge for the first time and good luck in the finish to this year and in future championships.

This tournament is similar to the World Series of Poker (Main Event). There is luck involved. Average poker players are going to get lucky and beat some pros in some hands. Behind with one card to come, they might even "suck out" and hit the perfect card on the river (i.e., a 5-run 9th-inning to win 8-7). String enough of these unlucky runouts throughout the course of the tournament, eventually the pro will get short-stacked and be eliminated. Lose a bunch of close games, and your unlucky team ends up with a .500 record despite outscoring the opponents by 100 runs. All of a sudden a very strong sim player does not make it to round 2.

You hope the luck evens out over 162 games, but it doesn't always work out that way.

I think we tend to notice the negative outliers the most, like when our HOF closer blows a lead, or an opposing fatigued pitcher struck out our best hitter 3 times. We don't tend to notice the majority of the time when things go as expected.

Also, there are a handful of people like me who are pretty experienced at the game itself, but trying the tournament for a first time. I made some poor choices in drafting the higher cap leagues because I never play those, but I've been able to learn and adjust some things to help teams perform better as I go. I'm too far behind to have much of a chance at moving forward into the next round, but I'm not gonna go out quietly. Some of you veterans may just be feeling the backlash of tourney rookies starting to figure things out ;)

Posted by Jtpsops on 7/18/2023 8:26:00 AM (view original):
Dark blue first 162, red second 162, blue third 162, red fourth 162.

There is way too much volatility in this game as to what works. I'm so tired of not being able to reliably count on one player or approach beyond a few games.

Sounds like... baseball.