Posted by jcred5 on 3/30/2023 5:53:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 3/28/2023 10:51:00 PM (view original):
I don't know if I am ready to say two horse race yet. Maybe 6 horse race? I am somewhat overvaluing the field here just because I think there is probably a bigger chaos component in WiS than math can account for, but my general guess would be:

chewey: +190
raggedclaws: +570
benhoidal: +900
dbkc: +900
jkaye24: 1400
jcred5: +1400
robusk: +1900
24kpyrite: +2400
beloud: +4900
ashamael: +4900
Midge: +9800
gerryred: +9800
Other: +5000

vegas just put out adjusted odds after one game

chewey: +350
robusk: +500
raggedclaws: +750
jkaye24: 900
dbkc: +1400
benhoidal: +1400
ashamael: +1400
jcred5: +1400
24kpyrite: +2400
beloud: +4900
Midge: +9800
gerryred: +9800
Other: +5000

Seems a little knee jerk after one cycle. The math is still largely in line with the pre-post season numbers. One cycle doesn’t change things all that much. You guys gotta settle down with the forum jinxing.

sports radio/tv has us trained for this.

Vegas has a new favorite, as jcred5 leaves the first round with all his playoff teams still alive. Not only that but I think I would have him as the favorite in all four of his second round series. His playoff magic continues folks.

Huge 1st round of the playoffs with an epic game 7 in world 3. chewy holds off ash in a close one to keep 3 teams alive, same as ash. Rob cut chewy's lead to 25 and has 3 team left to try and make up more ground. I still have 4 teams left in 3rd place, but 42 points behind. RC is now down to 2 teams in 4th place 47 points behind the lead. 24 still has 3 teams left in 5th place and ash is coming on strong in 6th place.

Chewy 3 teams, 2 byes, 441 max pts +450
JC 4 teams, 1 bye, 475 max pts +600
Rob 3 teams, 0 byes, 416 max pts +750
24 3: teams, 1 bye, 390 max pts +750
RC 2 teams, 2 byes, 350 max pts +900
Ash 3 teams, 0 byes, 379 max pts+900

Almost every match in round 2 is significant, the biggest might be W5 Rob vs RC and W1 24 vs RC. Usually I would say you need 3 teams in the conference finals, 2 in the finals and a championship. But there are so many owners and teams with a bye, if chewy or rob are left with 1 or less in the conference finals and no one has more than 2 in the conference finals it could get really open.

jcred up 2-1 in 3/4 series. chewy up 3-0 with his two best teams. Ladies and gentleman:

Anyone watch the Boston - Philly game tonight? FN Tucker. What was Embiid's TS% going 20-25 FG and 12-13 FT? Like 87%?

Congrats to PBandJ, 20ks and ash on their round 2 sweeps and being the first to enter the conference finals.

Playoff teams remaining:

	W1	W2	W3	W4	W5	Total
chewy3344	1	1	0	0	0	2
robusk	0	0	1	1	1	3
jcred5	0	0	0	0	1	1
raggedclaws	0	0	0	0	0	0
24kpyrite	1	0	0	0	0	1
ashamael	0	1	0	0	1	2
benhoidal	0	0	1	0	0	1
jkaye24	1	0	0	0	0	1
gerryred	0	0	0	0	0	0
dBKC	0	0	1	0	0	1
beloud	0	0	0	1	0	1
Midge	0	1	0	0	0	1
edsortails	0	0	0	0	0	0
steelers821	0	0	0	0	0	0
amerk1180	0	1	0	0	0	1
PBandJ	0	0	1	0	0	1
20ks	1	0	0	0	0	1
dh555	0	0	0	1	0	1
ty84moss	0	0	0	0	1	1
jpevans31	0	0	0	0	0	0
jhsukow	0	0	0	1	0	1
jethroeg	0	0	0	0	0	0
albiband0	0	0	0	0	0	0
berkelon	0	0	0	0	0	0

I did a little quick napkin math to gauge how much championship equity was out there. Here is what I have. CF column is my estimated odds for that coach to advance in their conference finals matchup. F column represents the odds of winning the finals. The way I calculated F was by looking at the strengths of the conferences against each other (some quick back of the napkin math using some quick stats, nothing too fancy), which gave me the conference odds. I then multiplied that by each team's conference advancing odds.

	Coach	CF	F
W1	jkaye24	66%	26%
	20ks	34%	14%
	chewy3344	66%	40%
	24kpyrite	34%	20%
W2	Midge	55%	25%
	amerk1180	45%	20%
	chewy3344	60%	33%
	ashamael	40%	22%
W3	benhoidal	70%	56%
	dBKC	30%	24%
	PBandJ	55%	11%
	robusk	45%	9%
W4	beloud	60%	39%
	dh555	40%	26%
	robusk	45%	16%
	jhsukow	55%	19%
W5	ty84moss	55%	22%
	ashamael	45%	18%
	jcred5	66%	40%
	robusk	34%	20%

You sum that up and this is each remaining coach's odds of winning a single championship with their remaining teams:

	Row Labels	Sum of F
	chewy3344	72.6%
	benhoidal	56.0%
	robusk	45.2%
	ashamael	40.0%
	jcred5	39.6%
	beloud	39.0%
	jkaye24	26.4%
	dh555	26.0%
	Midge	24.8%
	dBKC	24.0%
	ty84moss	22.0%
	24kpyrite	20.4%
	amerk1180	20.3%
	jhsukow	19.3%
	20ks	13.6%
	PBandJ	11.0%

I appreciate the work that went into that number. I will try my best to let you down.

Posted by jcred5 on 4/5/2023 12:57:00 PM (view original):
Congrats to PBandJ, 20ks and ash on their round 2 sweeps and being the first to enter the conference finals.

16 of 24 owners making a final four is pretty impressive. Haven't checked history but seems a lot more equitable.

Posted by robusk on 4/6/2023 2:38:00 PM (view original):
I did a little quick napkin math to gauge how much championship equity was out there. Here is what I have. CF column is my estimated odds for that coach to advance in their conference finals matchup. F column represents the odds of winning the finals. The way I calculated F was by looking at the strengths of the conferences against each other (some quick back of the napkin math using some quick stats, nothing too fancy), which gave me the conference odds. I then multiplied that by each team's conference advancing odds.

	Coach	CF	F
W1	jkaye24	66%	26%
	20ks	34%	14%
	chewy3344	66%	40%
	24kpyrite	34%	20%
W2	Midge	55%	25%
	amerk1180	45%	20%
	chewy3344	60%	33%
	ashamael	40%	22%
W3	benhoidal	70%	56%
	dBKC	30%	24%
	PBandJ	55%	11%
	robusk	45%	9%
W4	beloud	60%	39%
	dh555	40%	26%
	robusk	45%	16%
	jhsukow	55%	19%
W5	ty84moss	55%	22%
	ashamael	45%	18%
	jcred5	66%	40%
	robusk	34%	20%

Pretty cool. Haven't done the math to be sure, but you were right about the savage crown being down to 2... you just had one of them wrong.

Posted by jcred5 on 4/6/2023 6:00:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 4/6/2023 2:38:00 PM (view original):
I did a little quick napkin math to gauge how much championship equity was out there. Here is what I have. CF column is my estimated odds for that coach to advance in their conference finals matchup. F column represents the odds of winning the finals. The way I calculated F was by looking at the strengths of the conferences against each other (some quick back of the napkin math using some quick stats, nothing too fancy), which gave me the conference odds. I then multiplied that by each team's conference advancing odds.

	Coach	CF	F
W1	jkaye24	66%	26%
	20ks	34%	14%
	chewy3344	66%	40%
	24kpyrite	34%	20%
W2	Midge	55%	25%
	amerk1180	45%	20%
	chewy3344	60%	33%
	ashamael	40%	22%
W3	benhoidal	70%	56%
	dBKC	30%	24%
	PBandJ	55%	11%
	robusk	45%	9%
W4	beloud	60%	39%
	dh555	40%	26%
	robusk	45%	16%
	jhsukow	55%	19%
W5	ty84moss	55%	22%
	ashamael	45%	18%
	jcred5	66%	40%
	robusk	34%	20%

Pretty cool. Haven't done the math to be sure, but you were right about the savage crown being down to 2... you just had one of them wrong.

Tbf from the position you were in to where you ended up was a pretty long shot outcome. I am shocked to see it.