I don't know if I am ready to say two horse race yet. Maybe 6 horse race? I am somewhat overvaluing the field here just because I think there is probably a bigger chaos component in WiS than math can account for, but my general guess would be:

chewey: +190
raggedclaws: +570
benhoidal: +900
dbkc: +900
jkaye24: 1400
jcred5: +1400
robusk: +1900
24kpyrite: +2400
beloud: +4900
ashamael: +4900
Midge: +9800
gerryred: +9800
Other: +5000

The way this season went, I could win 4 championships or 4 games in the playoffs and neither would surprise me.

Well, that's not entirely true. I'll be shocked if I make it to even one finals.

Posted by robusk on 3/28/2023 10:51:00 PM (view original):
I don't know if I am ready to say two horse race yet. Maybe 6 horse race? I am somewhat overvaluing the field here just because I think there is probably a bigger chaos component in WiS than math can account for, but my general guess would be:

chewey: +190
raggedclaws: +570
benhoidal: +900
dbkc: +900
jkaye24: 1400
jcred5: +1400
robusk: +1900
24kpyrite: +2400
beloud: +4900
ashamael: +4900
Midge: +9800
gerryred: +9800
Other: +5000

You got 5 playoffs teams in right? At least that’s what I’m seeing on the spreadsheet. Seems like +1900 is a bit high. I also feel +190 is a bit low for chewy. 5 playoff teams and the regular season winner is going to make him hard to beat.

Posted by steelers821 on 3/29/2023 1:19:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 3/28/2023 10:51:00 PM (view original):
I don't know if I am ready to say two horse race yet. Maybe 6 horse race? I am somewhat overvaluing the field here just because I think there is probably a bigger chaos component in WiS than math can account for, but my general guess would be:

chewey: +190
raggedclaws: +570
benhoidal: +900
dbkc: +900
jkaye24: 1400
jcred5: +1400
robusk: +1900
24kpyrite: +2400
beloud: +4900
ashamael: +4900
Midge: +9800
gerryred: +9800
Other: +5000

You got 5 playoffs teams in right? At least that’s what I’m seeing on the spreadsheet. Seems like +1900 is a bit high. I also feel +190 is a bit low for chewy. 5 playoff teams and the regular season winner is going to make him hard to beat.

5 in but not a single division winner or championship contender. Chewy’s two best teams both came out of bottom 8 divisions and have to go against tough competition. I put some pretty sound math behind the odds. That comes out to ~35% chance of chewy winning…. I’d say those are pretty favorable odds.

I had one good team, one okay team, and three flaming wrecks. I’m pretty confident that I have this thing in the bag.

Posted by robusk on 3/29/2023 1:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by steelers821 on 3/29/2023 1:19:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 3/28/2023 10:51:00 PM (view original):
I don't know if I am ready to say two horse race yet. Maybe 6 horse race? I am somewhat overvaluing the field here just because I think there is probably a bigger chaos component in WiS than math can account for, but my general guess would be:

chewey: +190
raggedclaws: +570
benhoidal: +900
dbkc: +900
jkaye24: 1400
jcred5: +1400
robusk: +1900
24kpyrite: +2400
beloud: +4900
ashamael: +4900
Midge: +9800
gerryred: +9800
Other: +5000

You got 5 playoffs teams in right? At least that’s what I’m seeing on the spreadsheet. Seems like +1900 is a bit high. I also feel +190 is a bit low for chewy. 5 playoff teams and the regular season winner is going to make him hard to beat.

5 in but not a single division winner or championship contender. Chewy’s two best teams both came out of bottom 8 divisions and have to go against tough competition. I put some pretty sound math behind the odds. That comes out to ~35% chance of chewy winning…. I’d say those are pretty favorable odds.

For reference at best I’m a mediocre sports better. Those are just the two lines that would immediately pop out to me. Sim playoffs always seem a bit unpredictable so having 5 chances at a title seems worth the bet.

As the dude who has been where Chewey & Rob are - at least twice - nothing - NOTHING - is guaranteed. Even getting five in with league best in two leagues don't mean ****. The playoffs are just a different dance.

Playoff Preview

Thank you for playing!

Jethroeg
Albiband0
Berkelon



1 team in

DH, Jhsukow and jp all both have a bye and a chance for a deep playoff run. Ty has a 4 seed, but was only 2 games from a bye and could make a run. Commish should have time to start planning Savage XI.

2 teams in
20ks, PBandJ, amerk and midge. Midge and PBandJ both have a bye. These teams are playing for pride and only midge has won a championship before. Maybe someone will add their first.

3 teams in
Ben, dBKC, beloud, Gerry, ed, steelers. A wide range here and maybe a couple with an outside shot to win it all. Ben has two teams with a bye that look dominant and a 50 win team as a 3 seed. One of those teams looks dominant and a heavy favorite to win. If he can get two titles and maybe a finals appearance…. You never know. Similar with dBKC having 2 byes, unfortunately one of them in the same conference as Ben’s 60 win team. Beloud, Gerry and Ed all have a team with one bye and steelers none. Could be some championship contenders here for sure

4 teams in
Rc, jc, 24, jk and ash. Technically any of these teams could win the savage crown, but rc is the strongest contender with two byes and only 35 points back of chewy. I only have one bye and a tough draw in other spots, probably lucky to hold on to top 5. 24 also with one bye and some strong teams. Jk could make some noise with a couple byes and several strong teams. Ash will need to go a playoff heater – it’s happened before!

5 teams in
Likely the Savage champ will come from this group. Chewy has a solid lead, got the bonus with two byes and I can’t remember the last time I looked at the last 50 and chewy had less than 50 wins. His teams are hot and he seems the odds on favorite. 41 points back is a lot, but with 5 in rob he has a shot. Rob didn’t get a bye (sorry bud) but if his teams play well those wins will start to pile up.

I can’t help but notice you didn’t label by .500 team that plays robusk in the first round didn’t get labeled a title contender

Now that savage x is in the playoffs, ODL 88 draft is over, you might have some free time on your hands. If you are looking for a fun challenge that requires some time and research, I encourage you to check out a new theme league I am trying to fill. https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=536712 Hope to see you there.

Posted by steelers821 on 3/29/2023 11:03:00 PM (view original):
I can’t help but notice you didn’t label by .500 team that plays robusk in the first round didn’t get labeled a title contender

That series could go either way.

Love the write up Jcred. You did great contributions all season. Really appreciate it. I think the outlook on me is too optimistic. If you play out the championship odds of each team in each world, my fractional point totals don’t look great. There is a chance I win but it is quite small and smaller chance than quite a few other coaches. I am hopeful to stay in the top 5.

Posted by robusk on 3/30/2023 9:57:00 AM (view original):
Love the write up Jcred. You did great contributions all season. Really appreciate it. I think the outlook on me is too optimistic. If you play out the championship odds of each team in each world, my fractional point totals don’t look great. There is a chance I win but it is quite small and smaller chance than quite a few other coaches. I am hopeful to stay in the top 5.

Thanks Rob. It's been fun and I'm sure I won't be doing it next time.

Regarding my assessment of your chances.... Nice 5-0 start to the playoffs!

Posted by robusk on 3/28/2023 10:51:00 PM (view original):
I don't know if I am ready to say two horse race yet. Maybe 6 horse race? I am somewhat overvaluing the field here just because I think there is probably a bigger chaos component in WiS than math can account for, but my general guess would be:

chewey: +190
raggedclaws: +570
benhoidal: +900
dbkc: +900
jkaye24: 1400
jcred5: +1400
robusk: +1900
24kpyrite: +2400
beloud: +4900
ashamael: +4900
Midge: +9800
gerryred: +9800
Other: +5000

vegas just put out adjusted odds after one game

chewey: +350
robusk: +500
raggedclaws: +750
jkaye24: 900
dbkc: +1400
benhoidal: +1400
ashamael: +1400
jcred5: +1400
24kpyrite: +2400
beloud: +4900
Midge: +9800
gerryred: +9800
Other: +5000

Posted by jcred5 on 3/30/2023 5:43:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 3/30/2023 9:57:00 AM (view original):
Love the write up Jcred. You did great contributions all season. Really appreciate it. I think the outlook on me is too optimistic. If you play out the championship odds of each team in each world, my fractional point totals don’t look great. There is a chance I win but it is quite small and smaller chance than quite a few other coaches. I am hopeful to stay in the top 5.

Thanks Rob. It's been fun and I'm sure I won't be doing it next time.

Regarding my assessment of your chances.... Nice 5-0 start to the playoffs!

Eh… I feel like I’ve lost as many 3-1 leads as I’ve won. It seems like I never have a normal series. Given that context I’d expect nothing short of 0-5 this next cycle… so I tend to feel inevitable loss with every cycle regardless of the outcome.