Posted by jcred5 on 1/30/2023 4:15:00 PM (view original):
Posted by robusk on 1/29/2023 10:35:00 AM (view original):
My ideal is that they give us a few defensive schemes to choose from and then give players a few defensive ratings: point of attack, drop, switch, awareness. It’s obviously difficult to implement especially for older players but I have some ideas.
Be curious to hear more. My team defense recommendation was that it's simple and outcome based, and I do think better but not perfect. Ja for example was 57 last year. I don't watch him a ton, but depending on how you value his hustle/effort it's directionally accurate. Then it would be starters get a plus 20 bump for the top rated defense, maybe 10 point bump for teams 2-5. Not something like the automatic 80 or 90 for the all defense.
With modern stats like contest%, % allowed at the rim, isolation points per possession, etc. I think it is pretty plausible. Awareness is where I might take advantage of something like defensive +/-.
For older era's where it isn't possible, then you have to get creative. I think it is probably some combination of height, weight, points allowed relative to era, blocks, steals.. I think a reasonable formula could be worked up, I'd certainly be up for spending time on it. I think I would start by using the current era for which we have stats to support the desired outcomes, then use that as training data to model for a way to apply it to the older era using the more limited set of data. It wouldn't be perfect, there would certainly be anomalies, but it would be better than what we have now.