Great information.

I agree with the one poster that said, each section needs it's own discussion thread. But I'm just going to throw out some random thoughts after reading most or some parts of it last week.

BLK and FT. I wouldn't let those ratings determine a recruits worth.

I catch myself looking at green thinking it is better. Which is the better rating? 55 green or a 85 red? It is even more complicated than it looks. The category matters too.

Posted by skinndogg on 11/23/2021 4:10:00 PM (view original):
Great information.

I agree with the one poster that said, each section needs it's own discussion thread. But I'm just going to throw out some random thoughts after reading most or some parts of it last week.

BLK and FT. I wouldn't let those ratings determine a recruits worth.

I catch myself looking at green thinking it is better. Which is the better rating? 55 green or a 85 red? It is even more complicated than it looks. The category matters too.

Thanks, I’m glad you found it useful!

I like to think of BLK* for posts and FTs for PGs and players that score in the paint (LP and slashing scorers) as key secondary traits. I will always value the core categories I listed in the player evaluation section as more important but these attributes at the positions I listed are unquestionably useful and will make the player better. If the trade-off is point for point (15 points in ATH vs 15 points in BLK for a post), the recruit with the higher ATH is better. But if I’m swapping alittle core for a large amount of the secondary category (let’s say 5 ATH for 25 BLK) then the recruit with the better BLK is at least as good if not better. It’s a bit of a sliding scale in there but that’s how I think about those categories.

BLK is a core for zone teams*. It does need to be apart of all frontcourt player evals if that’s your defense.

Green categories mean there is 28+ in upside. LP/PER has my far the most variance (ie it could be 28 or 50-60), Défense tends to have the 3rd most variance, and the rest of the categories tend to be pretty close to 28. Even as an accountant with decent math skills, I tend to just add 30 to all green categories when doing my player eval unless it’s LP/Per and then I think it’s 30 plus a dice roll.

There is value in a category already being high as a freshman. Most importantly, that player possesses that skill all 4 years so they are better early on. Additionally, I don’t have to devote practice minutes to that category so I can develop elsewhere. In your question of 55 green vs 85 red, I think to myself that I’m already getting the majority/all of the gain because it’s a 30 point difference. On top of that, 85 is a useful number for any attribute so I’m not going to be unhappy that it finished there. Therefore, my answer is pretty easily red 85.

it’s an interesting thought exercise so I’m going to reframe it slightly. If my choices are 45 green vs 70 red, it’s a much harder question. Now I know I’m leaving something on the table and definitely losing upside. Broadly 70 is a useful skill in D1 but it’s not special. To me, this is a much closer one and probably changes based on the situation. LP/Per, I’ll take the green to build in the dice roll. After that it probably comes down to how critical that player is in my roster construction. If I need him to start in the first 2 seasons and that’s a core, I’ll probably take the red. If he’s a bench player for a few seasons, I might prefer the upside.

good stuff texashick, thanks for sharing!!

Thanks for sharing and how do I save this I don’t see the Favorite option anymore or can you pin this?

Posted by dirtycajun on 12/3/2021 11:17:00 PM (view original):
Thanks for sharing and how do I save this I don’t see the Favorite option anymore or can you pin this?

If you click the star button on the bar across the top (to the right of this thread’s name), it will appear in My Forums, and you can access those quickly when you’d like.

Posted by shoe3 on 12/4/2021 9:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by dirtycajun on 12/3/2021 11:17:00 PM (view original):
Thanks for sharing and how do I save this I don’t see the Favorite option anymore or can you pin this?

If you click the star button on the bar across the top (to the right of this thread’s name), it will appear in My Forums, and you can access those quickly when you’d like.

Thanks shoe. On my iPhone in safari, it does not give you the star. Switched to Chrome and it’s visible and able to click on it to save. Might be helpful to others.

Posted by shoe3 on 11/20/2021 2:00:00 PM (view original):
On the topic of sets, I think the differences between offensive sets is currently probably the least well understood major concept in the game by the HD community, and that’s reflected in the section in this manifesto. It’s basically like zone was 8 years ago. Folks tend to play it a certain way - like there is basically no difference between triangle, flex, and motion - and because that is 90% of what people see, most of us assume there is no real difference. But there are differences, important ones, just like there are differences between man, zone, and press. Like defense, great players will do pretty well even if you completely ignore the differences, and just throw them out there, so if your strategy is to focus all your efforts on getting the best players, and keeping the ball in their hands, you’ll do pretty well. But understanding some of the nuances of those sets, how they weigh the attributes, and how they tolerate distribution loads most efficiently, that goes a long way toward moving a coach to the next level.

I don’t have all the answers here, by any means. Only some suspicions and hunches and tendencies. But I am certain there are differences, and they are pretty important. The offensive sets aren’t just cosmetic.

Ive updated the offensive set section. It's one of the more common questions I see so I thought it was worth addressing. This is admittedly not something I have keyed on while I've played, so if anyone has suggestions or edits, I'm happy to update.

first time I've run across this gem of a post / tutorial. Great job. I too did not read it all (yet), as gil posted, but I will. I did read the what you value in pg's or sg's or wings or post players, none of us will ever do the same things verbatim, but what you suggested is pretty darned good.

also like the roster construction section, suggesting the composition of a roster by position or player types vs the type of offense or esp defense you run. I do this same sort of thinking, but I never really wrote it down. I do a depth chart for 3 yrs out each recruiting session, I tend to assume my best guess at losing EE's, to help me look into the future to minimize the at times devastation that EE's can cause on the program.

well done, I'd highly recommend to anyone trying to excel at the game to read this. there is no fault or issue with reading it and then fine tuning things to what you think - mater of fact that's exactly what others should do. that in no way minimizes or changes the excellence in this guide. All of these types of things are highly subjective, BUT seldom will you get a chance to read anything this comprehensive about 'what if hoops', that also is this accurate.

Posted by oldresorter on 12/6/2022 3:54:00 PM (view original):
first time I've run across this gem of a post / tutorial. Great job. I too did not read it all (yet), as gil posted, but I will. I did read the what you value in pg's or sg's or wings or post players, none of us will ever do the same things verbatim, but what you suggested is pretty darned good.

also like the roster construction section, suggesting the composition of a roster by position or player types vs the type of offense or esp defense you run. I do this same sort of thinking, but I never really wrote it down. I do a depth chart for 3 yrs out each recruiting session, I tend to assume my best guess at losing EE's, to help me look into the future to minimize the at times devastation that EE's can cause on the program.

well done, I'd highly recommend to anyone trying to excel at the game to read this. there is no fault or issue with reading it and then fine tuning things to what you think - mater of fact that's exactly what others should do. that in no way minimizes or changes the excellence in this guide. All of these types of things are highly subjective, BUT seldom will you get a chance to read anything this comprehensive about 'what if hoops', that also is this accurate.

Thanks, I always appreciate hearing kind words! And yes, I wholeheartedly agree that smart coaches will take the framework laid out here and tinker and adjust to optimize. Im still doing that myself, just trying to provide a solid base for coaches to work from.

And Im always interested in coaches weighing in on where they diverge, it's helpful for me and for everyone else

I think I am going to spend more time in the hoops101 area reading about each offense type and see what I find (while also continuing to look through the first post here). I don't really see much difference in the offenses except for FB either, but I don't see any major errors it what you wrote, so it makes sense to me. I see some experimentation with some different offensive sets in my future.

Posted by hughesjr on 12/8/2022 3:09:00 PM (view original):
I think I am going to spend more time in the hoops101 area reading about each offense type and see what I find (while also continuing to look through the first post here). I don't really see much difference in the offenses except for FB either, but I don't see any major errors it what you wrote, so it makes sense to me. I see some experimentation with some different offensive sets in my future.

replying to hughes, but also to texashick, gil if he is around, and anyone else who cares. my guess is this will be long, so brace yourselves.

I tend to agree with hughes, I really don't see much differences in offenses.

when tarek was around, he'd sometimes sim a single game 500 times vs the same opponent, then repeat with one thing changed, like going from -5 to zero to +5, to see if extreme settings helped a theoretical team beat a team more often or less often - hint 0 did best, but -5 / +5 didn't change wins or losses very much. Without the aid of the sim engine, I'm going to ask as if 500 sims at each setting were avaialble. let's assume 500 is a relevant sample size, not 5000 or 50,000, or anythng like that.

I'm only going to focus on two things,3pt% and 3par (3pa's / fga's) to start with

1 - 500 sims of team a vs team b, using all 4 main offenses, fb, flex, man, triangle. do the avg of 3pt% or 3par change based on the offensive type, all other things being equal, players and ratings, depth chart, team game plan, player game plan & all defensive things, roster and settings. if so, do both, or just one or the other?

2 - I probably have a near infinite number of variations of this question, how about making it a 4 by 9 grid, offensive type as the x axis, defensive type as the y grid? do both 3pt% and 3par rise with 2-3 zone vs 3-2 zone, or just one or the other? I'd guess man & press & man press combo have a near equal affect of both stats, while the combo's act like the base 2-3 or 3-2, maybe those sims can be excluded? or does an offensive type, say flex, work much better vs zone or vs fcp or vs man? Hmmm

3- How about adding defensive depth - all 11 of them to the z axis (+5 to -5). I'd guess 3par should drop at +5 and rise at -5, but maybe just the 3pt% does, or maybe both do? I really don't know though.

4 - just to add one more series of comments b4 I stop , what happens using man, flex, fb, triangle vs the type of roster one has, in 500 sims vs the same team? for discussion, lets say a team's 4th best guard is a 60/60/60/60/60 at ath/sp/per/bh/pa, but the other 3 are all equal at 80 at everthing, except g1 is a 95 per, g2 is a 90 per, g3 is a 85 per. Oh all 4 are 20 reb's, the team has an all 60 sf1, who is also a 60 reb. Anyhow, vs the 4 offensive types, lets start off with equal distro to the 3 guards & having all 3 start, does playing g1 at pg, sg or sf matter, so does it matter more in flex to have him at pg vs sg or sf? I sincerely don't know that any of the offenses matter that much as long as the other ratings are the same, ath/sp/lbh/pa? how about if the 95 is given 1/3 more touches, the 85 1/3 less? it then could be the 85 per or g3, is the best pg? or does the team function better if sf1 starts & g3 comes off the bench at pg/sg. or maybe g2 makes a better come off the bench guy? or maybe it's better if all 3 start in zone, but only 2 start in fb or vs fcp? Then rather than vary per, vary passing or athleticism or speed or ball handling, in all 4 offenses, in all the many different roles while keeping perimeter fixed. then vary two things, what does that do to 3pt% or 3par? What do any of these many variations do to overall efficiency or ts%? how about tov%?

conclusions:

1 - I do think there are regression packages that can vary dozens if not hundreds of variables / results without having to sim each variable variation for each result. maybe someone has done all of this already. I'd guess they'd have to data mine extensively, multiple worlds, maybe even multiple divisions, multiple seasons, to start to see trends.

1a - if someone did all that, and found out some or most of the answers, are they cheating?

2 - I knew tarek (thru sitemail and cs tickets) better than most here since most the oldtimers are gone, but not near as well as others. if any of you are still around, just how complex could he have made all this, given it was written around the turn of the century & was essential a passion project by a single individual?

2a - I knew seble / the change team even less, but those that do are more plentiful, do you think they made the game an order of magnitude or two more complex in terms of variability vs offensive types or how player types affected outcomes?

2b - I have serious doubt either of them did, so I doubt the game is THAT complicated.

3 - the time when any of you would have played such a game is nearing an end, but in the 60's a game (mostly baseball) called strat o matic existed. it used 3 dice and a couple of cards to read the result based on the dice, willie mays batting against sandy koufax pitching, willie hit .300 on 12 x 3 results if a 1-3 was shook with the first dice, or he'd hit .180 and mostly stirke out if 4-6 was shook with those 12/3 results. I've always approached the game as if it's that game, with a random number generator replacing the dice, and computer memory / formula's / another random number generator replacing the cards. Now I accept that flex has a different set of formula's than motion, etc. and these will lead to slightly different box score stats. but ... I still think most this game is driven by the ratings of ind players placed in strategic roles. I'm not nearly so convinced that those roles change real much, based on the offense selected.

3a - so I'd probably try to recruit the same & would play my players in the same poitions, with the same distro and shot selection, regardless of man, flex, triangle or fb. That is unless someone like gil (there are more than one guy out there who know the new game well, gil is the only one I've spent any amount of time going back and forth with, and even that was a long, long time ago, so I apologize to the other experts out there) said he'd run regressions or something proving any paritcular POV. As far as I know, most of what we know is anecdotal unless CS has come out and told us, which IMO at least, happens less and less all the time) tarek used to do more of this - not sure how accurate the tarek hints are any longer though?

4 - finally, Just how much harm would it be for cs to accurately provide more hints / clues as to how the engine works vs various strategies like motion or flex? It be nice if this was communicated for everyone all at once, rather than if it's being done thru cs tickets so only a select few know? I'd find it fascinating as a long time user who 'might' have about as much of a gained advantage by not knowing exactly as most here - yet it'd be fun to know even if some of my edge goes away

4a - you guys should all send a note to cs asking for an updated modern advanced basketball stats package to be added, ts%, +/-, def rtg when on court (which is largely ppp/100 allowed), off rtg when on court, tov%, ast%, 3par, ftar, to name a few. but the one, if I only could get one, ind +/- would be so awesome & is something that is not easily calcuated. a bonus would be things like 2 man lineups +/- or complete advanced stats, 3 man, 4 man, 5 man, etc. places this stuff exist that I know of for real basketball, nba.com, basketballreference.com are both free, cleaning the glass is paid.

that's all I got, again, hats off to texashick, thanks for making me ponder some of these whatif type issues, been a while since I have.

Great post. Hugely insightful and changed the way I play, especially with scouting. Does anyone have a guide for scouting in D2?

Posted by ryancole17 on 8/23/2023 12:06:00 PM (view original):
Great post. Hugely insightful and changed the way I play, especially with scouting. Does anyone have a guide for scouting in D2?

most of the time:

max private camp d1/d2
fss d1 in 500 miles
fss d2 immediate local states
public elite camp if it fits in your location
ast coach a few times already discovered players x25

if 3 openings or less focus entirely on just d1 or d2

gonna be similar to most other d2 methods besides those going after intls

My scouting section is based on a post from Shoe (linked below). It goes into some detail on how/what he does at different divisions. I would recommend reading through that.

I personally value L4 scouting at D2 and R0peys strategy wont get that many L4 recruits (unless you are in a very barren location). That's a totally valid strategy, just not how I prefer to play.

https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=509170

Posted by texashick on 8/23/2023 2:40:00 PM (view original):
My scouting section is based on a post from Shoe (linked below). It goes into some detail on how/what he does at different divisions. I would recommend reading through that.

I personally value L4 scouting at D2 and R0peys strategy wont get that many L4 recruits (unless you are in a very barren location). That's a totally valid strategy, just not how I prefer to play.

https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=509170

what exactly is shoe doing in this post that is any different? there's not really a ton of options in scouting methods lol

if you want more level 4 recruits you just focus on 1 division D1 or D2 and youll have plenty of options. d2 level 4 is relatively overrated and it only matters for lp/per for the most part there isnt going to be a major difference that makes a recruit giagantically different if you recruit level 3 verse 4 again besides lp/per.