Gallup gave up doing Presidential polling, but their recent survey showing 56% of Americans saying they are better off now than they were four years ago can't be good news for Joe.

The voter enthusiasm gap is telling. Most Progressives are hardly thrilled with Joe. Harris was sent home very early in the primaries. Her own party didn't like her. Any undecided Republican or Independent voters won't want her being a heartbeat away from the Throne. This could be Mondale/Ferraro Part Deux...

Posted by DoctorKz on 10/17/2020 9:36:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 10/17/2020 9:28:00 PM (view original):
He is not polling better in battleground states this year. That's a lie

RealClearPolitics avg +0.7 ahead of '16. Polling info on top right of their website. Look it up.

You are correct that at *this moment* in both elections, Trump is doing better in battlegrounds now.

HOWEVER,
1. This election, polls have been much more stable. Biden's lead in battlegrounds has consistently been +3-6, while Clinton's fluctuated.
2. Last year at this time was the middle of a wave of support for Clinton, after the access Hollywood tape.
3. Clinton's polls dropped dramatically in the last couple of weeks before the election (correlating with email ****), so you'd have to assume that the same would happen to Biden.
4. With so much early voting this year, it's extra difficult for Trump to catch up.

If you apply the same polling error as happened in 16 to this election, Biden still wins comfortably. Fivethirtyeight has him at a much higher chance to win (85-15) than Clinton (70-30).

Posted by DoctorKz on 10/17/2020 9:41:00 PM (view original):
Biden is polling well. So was Hillary. She led Michigan by 10, lost it. Several other leads she had went bye bye too on Election Day? You figure Joe will fare better? I'm not spamming. You guys are just way too confident in the polls. Does Trump look worried? They have internal polling of their own.

internal polling

heh

Posted by DoctorKz on 10/17/2020 10:02:00 PM (view original):
Gallup gave up doing Presidential polling, but their recent survey showing 56% of Americans saying they are better off now than they were four years ago can't be good news for Joe.

The voter enthusiasm gap is telling. Most Progressives are hardly thrilled with Joe. Harris was sent home very early in the primaries. Her own party didn't like her. Any undecided Republican or Independent voters won't want her being a heartbeat away from the Throne. This could be Mondale/Ferraro Part Deux...

56% and he's still losing? Damn, must be tough then. Massive indictment of Trump if true.

Voter enthusiasm doesn't matter. There isn't much pro-Biden enthusiasm, but there's a lot of anti-Trump enthusiasm. Count me in the latter group.

I'm on record multiple times stating that I didn't think Biden was going to win. I thought the pandemic would not be as important of an issue, Trump's attacks on Biden were going to work, and that there was going to be a major October surprise. None of those things have happened. With the exception of a new scandal or some major pro-Trump news, I don't see Trump winning this thing.

Well we will find out soon enough...

I read so many posts around here insisting there would be a red landslide in 18.
it went massive blue.
there is going to be an eventful 4 years ahead for a democratic agenda of restoring morality to government and governing and foreign policy alliances and goals.....and going back to reaching for good American ideals.

the lines of Dems voting early is getting longer and longer.
trump will be whacked.
and he will be in courtrooms and lawyer offices and depositions all year 2021 and god willing in jail sometime in 2022.

I will certainly not at all be surprised if he eventually flees to a foreign country probably an Arab country where he can’t be extradited. I think there are 1 or 2 that don’t have treaties.

You really are a broken toy. Good luck with that...

Popular vote means dick. Hillary won California, Massachusetts, Illinois and NY by a combined 8M votes. All it got her was 1st runner up.

10% of Republicans and Independent voters are saying they are lying to pollsters. Even Biden's campaign manager has said recently that Joe may not be ahead. She is certain that it's closer than most believe it to be...

https://www.google.com/amp/s/thehill.com/homenews/campaign/521151-biden-campaign-manager-race-is-far-closer-than-experts-say%3famp

Posted by DoctorKz on 10/17/2020 9:41:00 PM (view original):
Biden is polling well. So was Hillary. She led Michigan by 10, lost it. Several other leads she had went bye bye too on Election Day? You figure Joe will fare better? I'm not spamming. You guys are just way too confident in the polls. Does Trump look worried? They have internal polling of their own.

Trump is too stupid to be worried. That being said, I hope Trump loses, but I have learned never to underestimate the intelligence of the voting public.

10% of Republicans and Independent voters are saying they are lying to pollsters.

Not sure you understand how polls work. Are they telling pollsters that they are Democrats voting for Biden? If so, they're likely just replacing a different Democrat, since polls generally pick a certain number of voters from each background for their sample. Are they saying that they are Biden voters who are Republicans? If so, why don't we see more Biden support among Republicans in polls?

This is a nonsense talking point.

Also, what the **** do you expect the Biden campaign manager to say? "We've got this one in the bag"?

Posted by DoctorKz on 10/17/2020 11:28:00 PM (view original):
You really are a broken toy. Good luck with that...

Mazel Tov.

you said the same before the 2018 blue wave.

this one is baked in.
no wishy washy this time and Biden still has momentum.

the pollsters were generally right last time just not in a few states.
the pollsters worked on errors since then.
the new polls are even more accurate.

hillary had a much smaller lead then Biden until axis Hollywood and that lead dropped back again even before comey stepped in.

this is a a lead that has been rock solid consistent all the way through. Biden keeps landing punches and has never been hit.

this is a romp.

Also never lose sight that trump is the incumbent.
at this point no one is undecided.
some people will stay home on nov 3 for many reasons but most Dems will have already voted.

Trump has to bring 9 point deficit to under 5 to have a chance.
not happening for that punk.