Through 34 games, we have 35 + plays with 1 negative play (by a pitcher). We've made only 19 errors. I noticed that my '14 Speaker had only 3 + plays in 33 games at 1B so moved him to the OF and moved Erstad to 1B. I do have solid pitching but am surprised that some of these numbers are so low given that we're playing in Hilltop with low-K pitchers. The team is actually 19-15 and tied for 1st place in this $120M cap league.

1B: '14 Speaker 3, '02 Erstad 0
2B: '33 Critz 7
3B: 2018 Chapman 8
SS: '07 Tulowitzki 4
LF: Erstad 1, Speaker 3
CF: '73 North 4
RF: '03 Cameron 1
Pitchers: 4

We're up to 110 "plus" plays after 65 games, on a pace for 274. No negative plays so far.

What I failed to emphasize was to limit pitcher strikeouts. Despite averaging "only" 4.3 K's per game for my pitching staff, we are ranked 4th overall in that category. I was so focused on A+++ range for pitchers, I didn't go overboard on picking pitchers with low strikeout totals.

Lesson learned. Will incorporate that into the next roster I try.

1B: '14 Speaker 7 (still really low for him)
2B: '87 Welch 15
3B: '88 Bonilla 14
SS: '18 Bancroft 14
LF: '57 Ashburn 17
CF: '73 North 15
RF: '28 Douthit 14
All pitchers; 14

Posted by schwarze on 8/13/2019 2:04:00 PM (view original):
We're up to 110 "plus" plays after 65 games, on a pace for 274. No negative plays so far.

What I failed to emphasize was to limit pitcher strikeouts. Despite averaging "only" 4.3 K's per game for my pitching staff, we are ranked 4th overall in that category. I was so focused on A+++ range for pitchers, I didn't go overboard on picking pitchers with low strikeout totals.

Lesson learned. Will incorporate that into the next roster I try.

do low K rates matter here? you can only get a + plus play on something that would have been a hit otherwise, so I'm not sure how changing a strikeout into a groundball or flyball out is going to help you get more + plays.

A strikeout is not a ball put into play. By my understanding a ball put into play has a non-zero chance of being affected by the fielder's range.

This team finally begins play tonight. Goal is 100 wins, 200+ plays.

McGee, Willie	1990	S	154	614	99	199	35	7	3	77	48	104	1	31	9	.324	.373	.419	.791	665	2	0
Lofton, Kenny	1992	L	148	576	96	164	15	8	5	42	68	54	2	66	12	.285	.362	.365	.726	651	1	4
Carey, Max	1921	S	148	552	90	170	36	4	7	59	74	32	4	39	13	.309	.395	.430	.825	662	0	32
Foxx, Jimmie	1931	R	148	549	99	160	34	11	32	128	78	90	1	4	3	.291	.380	.567	.947	633	0	4
Frisch, Frankie	1925	S	128	536	95	177	28	6	12	51	34	15	3	22	13	.331	.374	.472	.846	578	0	5
Bancroft, Dave	1923	S	113	471	85	143	35	3	1	33	66	24	1	8	7	.304	.391	.399	.789	544	0	6
Howard, Elston	1959	R	131	467	62	127	25	6	19	77	21	60	3	0	1	.273	.306	.476	.783	499	4	4
Doyle, Jack	1894	R	129	518	110	190	37	10	4	123	43	4	4	52	40	.367	.420	.498	.917	565	0	0

Here are the pitchers. All the regulars have A+ range except Gilmore, who will spot start in interleague games and mop and should put a lot of balls in play. Ballpark is Ameriquest in Arlington, a hitter's park but not extreme.

Smith, Frank	1909	R	54	43	27	18	1	390.0	1467	296	78	1	75	189	.214	.95	1.80	6	6	0
Taylor, Jack	1906	R	36	35	21	13	0	323.0	1284	265	71	4	92	65	.225	1.11	1.99	14	0	1
Flaherty, Patsy	1904	L	36	35	21	12	0	300.0	1202	259	68	4	73	72	.232	1.11	2.05	13	6	0
Gilmore, Frank	1888	R	15	13	1	11	0	116.0	534	158	85	5	35	28	.323	1.67	6.59	8	7	0
Mathewson, Christy	1916	R	13	6	3	4	2	70.0	273	63	18	3	7	17	.243	1.01	2.33	0	0	0
Falkenberg, Cy	1915	R	7	7	3	3	0	52.0	189	33	9	1	13	21	.188	.90	1.50	0	0	0
Mitchell, Roy	1918	R	6	4	5	0	0	46.0	173	34	4	0	6	11	.208	.88	.74	0	0	0
Sampson, Chris	2006	R	12	3	2	1	0	34.0	130	25	8	3	5	15	.205	.88	2.12	1	0	0
Voyles, Brad	2003	R	11	3	0	2	0	32.0	158	47	25	6	18	24	.348	2.07	7.18	1	3	0
Wolff, Roger	1947	R	14	6	1	4	0	32.0	163	52	31	4	19	7	.368	2.23	8.70	1	0	0
Redding, Tim	2005	R	10	7	0	6	0	31.0	154	44	36	7	17	19	.341	1.99	10.57	2	1	0
Douglas, Phil	1915	R	4	4	1	1	0	27.0	108	18	6	0	7	19	.187	.96	2.16	1	0	0
Milone, Tommy	2017	L	11	5	0	3	0	27.0	128	36	26	9	12	22	.316	1.78	8.56	0	0	0
Totals	--	--	229	171	85	78	3	1,480.0	5963	1330	465	47	379	509	.241	1.15	2.83	47	23	1

Posted by schwarze on 8/13/2019 8:07:00 PM (view original):
A strikeout is not a ball put into play. By my understanding a ball put into play has a non-zero chance of being affected by the fielder's range.

that's true, but for a ball in play that would be an out without the impact of range, the only way the range could affect it would be a poor range fielder having a - play and turning it into a hit.

i guess it might still help a little for when the first baseman saves an infielder a throwing error.

7-1 in an OL w/ 13 + plays in 8 games, 4 from my pitchers.

Range Rovers	7-1	0.875	-	-	-	W6	5-0	2-1	0-0	thunder1008
one and done	6-2	0.750	1	-	-	W4	4-1	2-1	0-0	cowboys
I Met Cuckoo Christensen	4-4	0.500	3	-	-	L1	2-1	2-3	0-0	gbonini
Tallahassee Tiger Sharks	4-4	0.500	3	-	-	L2	2-1	2-3	0-0	karcher

21 + plays in 12 games.

West	W-L	PCT	GB	MagN	L10	STRK	Home	Away	Live	Owner	LIVE
Range Rovers	11-1	0.917	-	-	10-0	W10	6-0	5-1	0-0	thunder1008
one and done	9-3	0.750	2	-	7-3	W2	7-2	2-1	0-0	cowboys
I Met Cuckoo Christensen	7-5	0.583	4	-	5-5	W3	5-1	2-4	0-0	gbonini
Tallahassee Tiger Sharks	5-7	0.417	6	-	3-7	L3	2-1	3-6	0-0	karcher

Posted by 06gsp on 8/14/2019 8:37:00 AM (view original):

Posted by schwarze on 8/13/2019 8:07:00 PM (view original):
A strikeout is not a ball put into play. By my understanding a ball put into play has a non-zero chance of being affected by the fielder's range.

that's true, but for a ball in play that would be an out without the impact of range, the only way the range could affect it would be a poor range fielder having a - play and turning it into a hit.

i guess it might still help a little for when the first baseman saves an infielder a throwing error.

I don't fully understand the exact process of the how the sim engine calculates a result. But if it works like real baseball, the pitcher can really only control walks and strikeouts. Once it's determined the result is not a walk or strikeout, the ball is in play and the fielders have to have some impact on the result positively or negatively (unless it's a HR). So removing strikeouts from the equation should equate to fielders having a greater impact.

If you are claiming this isn't true, a team full of Pedro Martinez clones would see the fielders creating the same number of + plays as a team full of Tommy John closes. I am not buying that.

This is from the FAQ stickied at the top of the forum:

All of the information in this post comes from a presentation that Paul Bessire at WIS delivered in 2009. You may still be able to find this online somewhere. If anything has changed since 2009, what is listed here may no longer be accurate.

Step 1: Determine if an unusual event occurs (defined as IBB, WP, PB, SB, CS, SH, H&R, Balk, Pickoff) or if it is a normal PA
Step 2: If normal PA, determine if HBP or not
Step 3: If not HBP, determine if walk or not. At this point, if the PA does not result in a walk, then we have an "at bat"
Step 4: Determine if the at bat results in a hit or an out (included park adjustments and any platoon advantage)

If the result of an at bat is an out, then do the following:
Step 5: Strikeout, or "normal" out (and if it's a normal out, is it a groundout or flyout, and in which direction)
Step 6: If "normal" out, determine if an error occurs (fielding rating) or if it becomes a hit (range rating, minus plays)

If the result of an at bat is a hit, then do the following:
Step 7: Determine if HR or "normal - in play" (Park effects used to determine HR)
Step 8: If "normal - in play" then determine if fielder converts it into an out (range, plus play)
Step 9: If it remains a hit, determine what kind of hit: triple, double, single (Park effects used to determine type of hit)

If this is correct, then strikeout rate doesn't have any impact at all on whether or not you get to Steps 8 and 9 where the plus plays can happen. Once you get to the step where strikeouts can happen, there's already no chance of a plus play. So yes, as long as their non-HR hits allowed rate was the same, John and Pedro would see the same number of + plays behind them.

The Tommy John staff would see a lot more errors and - plays though.

I was just going to post that.

This is an area where I think the SIM algorithm is flawed. In real MLB, it is generally understood that what schwarze says is true...something like the following:
-- Pitchers can influence whether the plate appearance results in a walk, strikeout or (to some extent) home run - the so called "three true outcomes"
-- Once a ball has been put into play, there is essentially no difference between pitchers. i.e. Pitchers have zero influence over whether a ball in play becomes a hit or an out (the Voros McCracken work from the 1990s suggested this...although it is probably not 100% true it is much more true than people generally believed until this research was published)
-- In other words, the determination of "strikeout" comes before the determination of hit or out on a ball in play
-- Therefore whether a ball in play becomes a hit is entirely due to (a) the hitter (b) luck (c) defensive positioning (d) range. How much influence you allocate to a, b, c, d is up for debate. But the point is that the identity of the pitcher is almost completely irrelevant.

Now, in WIS, the algorithm does NOT proceed this way. WIS assumes that the identity of the pitcher is important in determining whether a ball in play is a hit. And the determination of hit or out - assuming the quoted post is accurate - comes BEFORE determination of a strikeout. If true, this is very important to understanding the value of range, the value of a pitcher's strikeout rate, etc...

It would seem that it should be possible to test this, but in actuality I think it's very difficult.

You would to put the exact same set of fielders behind two pitching staffs with roughly equivalent OAV, OAV+, OAV# - but very different rates of K/9. If what is posted above is correct, there should be no statistical difference between the two teams in terms of number of plus plays.

Thanks for posting. I probably have come across this once upon a time, but either didn't read it or completely forgot about it.

Looks like my next open league team will be an attempt to test this theory.