Any thoughts on the combo of David Robinson and James Harden?

The best part of Robert Parish going in the first round is now when I accidentally click on the 17-18 draft going on, I for a second think someone picked Patty Mills in the 2nd round of the ODL

I'm about to find out about FP48

I am trying to build out a roster under 47M and wow is it hard

bottom of pg1 has updated rosters

Pick Strategy

Marshall, Donyell	47	robusk
Camby, Marcus	48	benhoidal
Marion, Shawn	49	benhoidal
Mutombo, Dikembe	50	robusk

I had so much pick calculus leading up to these four picks. When I moved down I had hoped one of the following would drop to me: Anfernee Hardaway, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Anteteokoumpo (this one was real wishful thinking but he went not too far from there last draft). None of them dropped. I audibled to McHale but he presents a couple problems. Crappy rebounding from the four with a focus on midrange. I absolutely knew I wanted either Marion or Marshall for the three to cover up rebounding while providing some passable 3PAs. I also really wanted Manu Ginobili and maybe Bill Walton (2 points usage, assists, elite rebounding and D). There are two other guys similar to Walton but one doesn't pass as well and one doesn't defend as well.

So... Manu and Walton are dudes ben always picks so I was wracking my brain on the pick order with him having two picks sandwiched in between mine. My hope was all four drop, Marion and Marshall are equally as good to me, pick Manu, assume ben picks either Marion or Marshall, picks Walton and then I snag whichever of the M's are left.

But Walton and Manu just got snagged. I immediately pivoted to Camby. He rebounds like a boss and he is cheap. There is another big man out there I really like but he is too expensive. There is a second I also like just as much but he is lower on minutes and I thought he'd be a reach for that spot. Unfortunately, ben is offering to trade the pick. I figured if someone is going to trade up, it very well could be for either Marshall or Marion. It is unlikely both of them go in ben's spot but I was going to be in terrible shape on the off chance it did happen. I decided to pull the trigger on one and hope ben doesn't pick Camby. There was a totally different type of big man I thought ben would consider even though he does not fit his usual prototype. I was like 80% confident he'd pick Marion.

Alas, he picked Camby. The other guy is still too expensive and it is still too much of a reach for the lower minute guy. I decide to go with Mutombo because he has a ton of usable seasons and I can swap them in or out depending on what happens in the rest of the draft.

Still, my rebounding isn't great and I have no assists, not too many threes and only 7 points of usage after three rounds. I think I got too cocky thinking I could trade down and that enough good people would fall. There has been very little slippage after the first round.

Posted by NotoriousJ on 1/10/2019 2:25:00 PM (view original):
I am trying to build out a roster under 47M and wow is it hard

Well, to be fair, you did buy basically all the usage you need already. You can fill out with 1 point or less usage guys and then find some cheap back ups after the draft for your big 3.

Posted by NotoriousJ on 1/10/2019 2:25:00 PM (view original):
I am trying to build out a roster under 47M and wow is it hard

My first time in this league I had it in my head that the salary cap was $50M up through the 4th round. Needless to say, I ended up with the lesser version of the players I drafted.

Posted by robusk on 1/10/2019 6:24:00 PM (view original):
Pick Strategy

Marshall, Donyell	47	robusk
Camby, Marcus	48	benhoidal
Marion, Shawn	49	benhoidal
Mutombo, Dikembe	50	robusk

I had so much pick calculus leading up to these four picks. When I moved down I had hoped one of the following would drop to me: Anfernee Hardaway, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Anteteokoumpo (this one was real wishful thinking but he went not too far from there last draft). None of them dropped. I audibled to McHale but he presents a couple problems. Crappy rebounding from the four with a focus on midrange. I absolutely knew I wanted either Marion or Marshall for the three to cover up rebounding while providing some passable 3PAs. I also really wanted Manu Ginobili and maybe Bill Walton (2 points usage, assists, elite rebounding and D). There are two other guys similar to Walton but one doesn't pass as well and one doesn't defend as well.

So... Manu and Walton are dudes ben always picks so I was wracking my brain on the pick order with him having two picks sandwiched in between mine. My hope was all four drop, Marion and Marshall are equally as good to me, pick Manu, assume ben picks either Marion or Marshall, picks Walton and then I snag whichever of the M's are left.

But Walton and Manu just got snagged. I immediately pivoted to Camby. He rebounds like a boss and he is cheap. There is another big man out there I really like but he is too expensive. There is a second I also like just as much but he is lower on minutes and I thought he'd be a reach for that spot. Unfortunately, ben is offering to trade the pick. I figured if someone is going to trade up, it very well could be for either Marshall or Marion. It is unlikely both of them go in ben's spot but I was going to be in terrible shape on the off chance it did happen. I decided to pull the trigger on one and hope ben doesn't pick Camby. There was a totally different type of big man I thought ben would consider even though he does not fit his usual prototype. I was like 80% confident he'd pick Marion.

Alas, he picked Camby. The other guy is still too expensive and it is still too much of a reach for the lower minute guy. I decide to go with Mutombo because he has a ton of usable seasons and I can swap them in or out depending on what happens in the rest of the draft.

Still, my rebounding isn't great and I have no assists, not too many threes and only 7 points of usage after three rounds. I think I got too cocky thinking I could trade down and that enough good people would fall. There has been very little slippage after the first round.

This is scary to read. Get out of my head! Haha

I know exactly which unnamed players you are talking about because those were the same guys I considered.

Both of us made slight miscalculations trading down. I thought a few more guys were going to slip too.

Posted by benhoidal on 1/10/2019 6:30:00 PM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 1/10/2019 6:24:00 PM (view original):
Pick Strategy

Marshall, Donyell	47	robusk
Camby, Marcus	48	benhoidal
Marion, Shawn	49	benhoidal
Mutombo, Dikembe	50	robusk

I had so much pick calculus leading up to these four picks. When I moved down I had hoped one of the following would drop to me: Anfernee Hardaway, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Anteteokoumpo (this one was real wishful thinking but he went not too far from there last draft). None of them dropped. I audibled to McHale but he presents a couple problems. Crappy rebounding from the four with a focus on midrange. I absolutely knew I wanted either Marion or Marshall for the three to cover up rebounding while providing some passable 3PAs. I also really wanted Manu Ginobili and maybe Bill Walton (2 points usage, assists, elite rebounding and D). There are two other guys similar to Walton but one doesn't pass as well and one doesn't defend as well.

So... Manu and Walton are dudes ben always picks so I was wracking my brain on the pick order with him having two picks sandwiched in between mine. My hope was all four drop, Marion and Marshall are equally as good to me, pick Manu, assume ben picks either Marion or Marshall, picks Walton and then I snag whichever of the M's are left.

But Walton and Manu just got snagged. I immediately pivoted to Camby. He rebounds like a boss and he is cheap. There is another big man out there I really like but he is too expensive. There is a second I also like just as much but he is lower on minutes and I thought he'd be a reach for that spot. Unfortunately, ben is offering to trade the pick. I figured if someone is going to trade up, it very well could be for either Marshall or Marion. It is unlikely both of them go in ben's spot but I was going to be in terrible shape on the off chance it did happen. I decided to pull the trigger on one and hope ben doesn't pick Camby. There was a totally different type of big man I thought ben would consider even though he does not fit his usual prototype. I was like 80% confident he'd pick Marion.

Alas, he picked Camby. The other guy is still too expensive and it is still too much of a reach for the lower minute guy. I decide to go with Mutombo because he has a ton of usable seasons and I can swap them in or out depending on what happens in the rest of the draft.

Still, my rebounding isn't great and I have no assists, not too many threes and only 7 points of usage after three rounds. I think I got too cocky thinking I could trade down and that enough good people would fall. There has been very little slippage after the first round.

This is scary to read. Get out of my head! Haha

I know exactly which unnamed players you are talking about because those were the same guys I considered.

Both of us made slight miscalculations trading down. I thought a few more guys were going to slip too.

Yeah, we can discuss which ones later. I have all the confidence you know who they are.

If you don't think I maintain a detailed history of the frequency by which each owner likes to select players and what pick range they generally pick them in... then you don't know me very well.

I'm going to head home. I'm on solo baby duty tonight but she goes to bed early... I'll write up some round two stuff then.

Appreciate all the analysis. Here’s hoping my guys drop, but I doubt it.

Posted by robusk on 1/10/2019 10:26:00 PM (view original):
Round 2

Gobert, Rudy	25	Midge	-16.20	100%
Kidd, Jason	26	ysw128	0.90	100%
Leonard, Kawhi	27	dBKC	-4.80	100%
Pippen, Scottie	28	copernicus	0.00	100%
Green, Draymond	29	jkaye24	-4.30	100%
Hardaway, Anfernee	30	pharrop	1.70	100%
Wallace, Ben	31	6theluckyone	3.90	100%
Nash, Steve	32	NotoriousJ	-1.00	100%
Garnett, Kevin	33	tarheel1991	10.30	100%
Kemp, Shawn	34	isacqbs58	-20.00	100%
McHale, Kevin	35	robusk	-0.60	100%
Whiteside, Hassan	36	24kpyrite	-1.70	100%
Harden, James	37	cjok1051	-16.90	100%
Williams, Deron	38	gerryred	-1.70	100%
Simmons, Ben	39	tau1624	#N/A	0%
Billups, Chauncey	40	24kpyrite	6.80	100%
Thompson, Klay	41	dh555	-4.00	100%
Walton, Bill	42	jcred5	2.00	100%
Towns, Karl-Anthony	43	NotoriousJ	-5.00	50%
Drummond, Andre	44	mptrey	-5.80	100%
Ginobili, Manu	45	mikee1	-1.10	100%
Blaylock, Mookie	46	sappy	2.30	100%
Marshall, Donyell	47	robusk	-1.60	100%
Camby, Marcus	48	benhoidal	4.30	100%

Risers:

James Harden – The new 17-18 is a good one. Harden turns it over a lot less and he defends a lot more effectively than his 16-17. His passing remains stellar. Personally though, I just never feel great paying all this capital for so much usage in a single player. Harden is soaking up 8 points of usage. The max you really want to spend on additional starting lineup usage is 6 more points or else I would say you are wasting your money (honestly I rarely go that high even when resource constrained). You got 4 points into Robinson. I am not sure Robinson is enough of a low post presence to offset how much of your offense is PER% based. Also, you are throwing a whole bunch of cash at FTAs that won’t net you a return. Having such a dominant offensive threat also makes managing you bench a nightmare. I am not totally against what cjok is doing and he has the highest variance on any ODL coach from what I have observed.

Ben Simmons – In a way, this Simmons season reminds me of a high usage Rodman. He is an elite, elite rebounder for his position. He is an elite defender across multiple positions (Yes, I know he starts diminishing at SG but I think you could credibly line him up across from 4 positions and a minimum of 3 defensively). However, he also generates no threes. Simmons is a really good passer and does turn it over a good bit. To me, you are looking for the same sort of big men with Simmons as you are for Rodman. Fortunately, those big men don’t always get taken and don’t get taken too early.

Andre Drummond – This is a good opportunity for me to unveil my big man rankings:

1. Wilt Chamberlain – That being said, very rarely does anyone use the right season. Also, the right season is expensive and you don’t get much squeeze expanding him for the playoffs
2. Shaquille O’neal – I slightly prefer him to the guy at #3. Shaq’s best seasons have a higher PNT%, ever so slightly better rebounder than the best KAJ ones. Shaq also turns it over less and by virtue of having less MP48, he cost less per minute (but can still be way scaled up for a playoff run).
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabaar – Besides cost, TOs and MID%, KAJ is every bit the player Shaq is. I Get very annoyed by the fact that neither credibly defends PFs which means I need one more guy who can rotate over to defend PFs at a high level since my center can’t (in case I run into a stud PF).
4. Dwight Howard – Not the usage of #2 and 3 nor the passing. He turns it over a bit more. But outstanding PNT%, eFG%, oREB% and dREB% and defense.
5. Karl Malone – Mailman is a little MID% heavy for and he isn’t an elite rebounder. He doesn’t shoot quite as well as the guys above him. The passing, turnovers, defense and usage are elite. He can defend SFs in a pinch.
6. Charles Barkley – He doesn’t defend well but he does everything else at an elite level. Plus, you can play him at SF in some seasons which gives you a tremendous advantage on the boards. He has epic PNT% and in some seasons gives you the occasional 3.
7. David Robinson – Robinson is not the rebounder of some of the other top guys and definitely not the passer. His fouls and turnovers are just okay. He does offer 100 D but other than that every leans towards very great across the board versus elite.
8. Moses Malone – The best rebounder besides Rodman. Turnovers tend to be a little higher, usage a little lower, shooting a bit lower depending on the season.
9. Tim Duncan – Another guy who shoots well, but not great. Rebound is very good but not elite. Passing is really good. Defense and fouls are elite. Duncan is awesome and I would rather trade down and get him where he usually goes than some of the guys above and where they go. The difference in quality between Robinson, M. Malone and Duncan isn’t all that great to me.
10. Anthony Davis – He is just a touch below the others. Shooting is good but not elite, rebounding is right there with Malone as meh. Passing is low. TO% and D are awesome with a high usage rate and manageable price. He plays a lot less minute than the others.

This is really the cutoff. After this, you get into the level of DeAndre Jordan, Rudy Gobert, Hassan Whiteside, Ben Wallace, Bill Walton, Andre Drummond, Marcus Camby, Dikembe Mutombo and Tyson Chandler. There are a couple other guys who haven’t been drafted yet and a couple more who are good but way too expensive for what you get. For all the low usage (except for Walton and Drummond) guys above, they are generally good defenders (except for Drummond) and rebounders and not too much else. Most don’t play too many minutes that they are expensive are don’t scale up for the playoffs. The differences are subtle and you might go one way or the other based on your team. McHale is an exception in this group – he is kind of an edge case. I would never reach out of draft position for one if the others were still available though. Other guys, not mentioned mean you should probably play them at SF.

Fallers:


Chauncey Billups – Honestly, nobody really fell this round except for one or two guys who dropped out of the round entirely. This was much to my annoyance. Chauncey is good. He can shoot fine and not make too many mistakes. He gets you four points of usage. I don’t find him to be dramatically better than someone you would get in the third or fourth but I would never criticize anyone for taking him here. I myself took him in the second a couple of ODL’s ago.

Explain Yourself:

24kpyrite – You traded down and I like both of your picks. I just think you could be in a tough spot without an elite scorer before your third pick.

Isacqbs58 – Kemp is good but another head scratcher at that spot.

6theluckyone – 2 rounds down, no usage to show for it.

Dangerous Combos:

Dbkc – Giannis and Kawhi is a really awesome start. You have efficient scoring and defense to cover 5 positions after only two rounds. Get some threes and some decent big men and you are completely set.

Gerryred – Nice start with former Jazz Mailman and Deron.

Pharrop – Moses falling and Hardaway being available is good example of taking what the draft board gives you.

Curious Combos:

Tau1624 – Good 17-18 start and I like both players. I just need to see how it turns out.

Sappy – Both Mookie and Chandler felt early there to me. I don’t love Mookie in general.

Notorious J – You traded up. You have a ton of usage. You spent quite a lot of money. You two subpar defenders. You turn it over a ton. But also I haven’t given up on this team. I think it could still happen!

Thanks for the review. Your plan for my team is pretty much what I’m hoping to pull off. I’ve been tempted to try to trade up a few times but I think I can fill out my roster from my current spots. Love the analysis. We have better commentators than BSPN here.

I can't imagine why someone would take me up on this, but I'd love to package 95 and 110 to move up and a 6b pick