I must be overvaluing the defensive aspects - those only times I have had luck in open leagues is with crazy amounts of defense.

He is generating a lot of extra possessions with the additional steals and blocks.

Posted by NotoriousJ on 1/8/2019 5:58:00 PM (view original):

mpg	D	Name	Team	Pos	Usage%	2pt%#	3pt%#	eFG%	OReb%	DReb%	Ast%	Stl%	Blk%
33	90	Tim Duncan	06-07 Spurs	C	28.4	54.8	11	54.7	9.4	25.8	13.3	1.2	4.3
39.5	100	Hakeem Olajuwon	92-93 Rockets	C	28.8	52.4	0	52.5	10	24.8	11	2	5.8

damn close

not if turnovers and fouls are at all important - also not if we are working under a fixed cap (you're paying 2m+ for 7 extra minutes)

Duncan's turnover % that year: 14.0%
Hakeem's that year: 12.4%

Anyone who has that many more steals and blocks is going to get more fouls.

I concede that most of you know more than me about this, I'm just not seeing it in the numbers.

Minutes: 3242 (Hakeem) v. 2726 (Duncan) - are we looking at the same numbers?

Posted by NotoriousJ on 1/8/2019 9:58:00 PM (view original):
Minutes: 3242 (Hakeem) v. 2726 (Duncan) - are we looking at the same numbers?

yes - a 7 minutes per game difference - later when you're trying to fill slots and stretch bench is when that becomes important

Posted by NotoriousJ on 1/8/2019 9:56:00 PM (view original):
Duncan's turnover % that year: 14.0%
Hakeem's that year: 12.4%

Anyone who has that many more steals and blocks is going to get more fouls.

I concede that most of you know more than me about this, I'm just not seeing it in the numbers.

good catch on the TOV - some of (H)Akeem's seasons are better than others and I was lazy and didn't check

the fun thing about the PFs though (and the sim in general) is that while you wont ever ever ever approach your IRL FTAs, PFs generally speaking generate just fine

also steals dont really do much

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hidden-value-of-the-nba-steal/

Posted by NotoriousJ on 1/8/2019 10:42:00 PM (view original):
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hidden-value-of-the-nba-steal/

Yeah I remember that article. It’s cool. I’ve read some papers that generally corroborate it. The sim here isn’t perfect and blocks and steals are partially victims. They aren’t worthless though. You kind of have to treat some number of the stats for the simulation as complete independent of how you would treat them in real life. Otherwise you won’t be able to understand how to create repeatable patterns in the sim. They are different games.

Still getting there. I am very comfortable with HBD v real baseball but not there with NBA yet.

Posted by copernicus on 1/8/2019 10:39:00 PM (view original):

Posted by NotoriousJ on 1/8/2019 9:56:00 PM (view original):
Duncan's turnover % that year: 14.0%
Hakeem's that year: 12.4%

Anyone who has that many more steals and blocks is going to get more fouls.

I concede that most of you know more than me about this, I'm just not seeing it in the numbers.

good catch on the TOV - some of (H)Akeem's seasons are better than others and I was lazy and didn't check

the fun thing about the PFs though (and the sim in general) is that while you wont ever ever ever approach your IRL FTAs, PFs generally speaking generate just fine

also steals dont really do much

This is the great thing when you use DeAndre Jordan - don't have to deal with the hacking.

I was talking to myself into doing something really goofy and pairing Deandre with Ben Wallace, one of my favorite players at this cap. I didn't expect Wallace to get picked before me once copernicus passed on him, though I should have realized he'd make sense with Stockton. It would have been tough but I think I had a reasonable way to make it work that would have been a lot of fun.

So instead I'll go with another of my favorite ODL players, KG (specifically KG's 05-06 season). It's going to be a real struggle in terms of salary, since as I said DJ is kind of a luxury guy at this cap, but still plenty of time to figure that out.

I have the teams starting to take shape at the bottom of PG1

Posted by robusk on 1/8/2019 10:48:00 PM (view original):

Posted by NotoriousJ on 1/8/2019 10:42:00 PM (view original):
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-hidden-value-of-the-nba-steal/

Yeah I remember that article. It’s cool. I’ve read some papers that generally corroborate it. The sim here isn’t perfect and blocks and steals are partially victims. They aren’t worthless though. You kind of have to treat some number of the stats for the simulation as complete independent of how you would treat them in real life. Otherwise you won’t be able to understand how to create repeatable patterns in the sim. They are different games.

yeah, this - I meant in the sim

Posted by NotoriousJ on 1/8/2019 11:29:00 PM (view original):
Still getting there. I am very comfortable with HBD v real baseball but not there with NBA yet.

I used to crush HBD when I had a less demanding job. I don't have the time or energy for it anymore. Good product though.