Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):
Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.

I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.

It's not "his" predictions.

Correct, but do you know who he is, what he's known for, and what he does?

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):
Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.

I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.

This is a weird take.

If if I ask you to roll a sixsided die and attempt to get a six, your odds of rolling a six would be one in six. Your odds of rolling something other than a six would be five in six.

If I say it’s likely that you won’t roll a six and then you do roll a six, was I wrong?

Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 4:32:00 PM (view original):
I’m really just referring to the idea that voting for someone because they have a D next to their name is an issue.

Democrat/Republican is not an issue. They're political parties.

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:27:00 PM (view original):
Correct, but do you know who he is, what he's known for, and what he does?

Yes.

Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):
Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.

I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.

This is a weird take.

If if I ask you to roll a sixsided die and attempt to get a six, your odds of rolling a six would be one in six. Your odds of rolling something other than a six would be five in six.

If I say it’s likely that you won’t roll a six and then you do roll a six, was I wrong?

Yes, I agree polling is very difficult, but it's similar to sports betting. Creating spreads in Vegas is far from an exact science, but if oddsmakers are consistently way off base they lose credibility.

I seem to remember Silver having the 2016 presidential election closer than anyone else.

Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 5:34:00 PM (view original):

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:27:00 PM (view original):
Correct, but do you know who he is, what he's known for, and what he does?

Yes.

Then you also know who he works for and that his job is translation of polling data, correct. I know he's not pollster and has never taken a poll in his life, but you understand what I'm saying.

Posted by The Taint on 11/6/2018 5:40:00 PM (view original):
I seem to remember Silver having the 2016 presidential election closer than anyone else.

That would be very incorrect.

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:40:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 5:34:00 PM (view original):

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:27:00 PM (view original):
Correct, but do you know who he is, what he's known for, and what he does?

Yes.

Then you also know who he works for and that his job is translation of polling data, correct. I know he's not pollster and has never taken a poll in his life, but you understand what I'm saying.

Yes, but it isn't like HE makes a prediction. Like it's a model that he develops but that spits out the results, not him.

And honestly there isn't much political bias to his writing.

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):
Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.

I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.

This is a weird take.

If if I ask you to roll a sixsided die and attempt to get a six, your odds of rolling a six would be one in six. Your odds of rolling something other than a six would be five in six.

If I say it’s likely that you won’t roll a six and then you do roll a six, was I wrong?

Yes, I agree polling is very difficult, but it's similar to sports betting. Creating spreads in Vegas is far from an exact science, but if oddsmakers are consistently way off base they lose credibility.

1. There are way more sporting events than political elections, and sporting events are easier to predict.
2. Silver hasn't been consistently wrong, at least as far as I can remember.

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):
Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.

I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.

This is a weird take.

If if I ask you to roll a sixsided die and attempt to get a six, your odds of rolling a six would be one in six. Your odds of rolling something other than a six would be five in six.

If I say it’s likely that you won’t roll a six and then you do roll a six, was I wrong?

Yes, I agree polling is very difficult, but it's similar to sports betting. Creating spreads in Vegas is far from an exact science, but if oddsmakers are consistently way off base they lose credibility.

I don't think Silver was way off base in 2016. He had Clinton ahead nationally and she ended up ahead nationally.

And Silver had Trump's odds of winning at something like 1 in 3...those aren't long odds.

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 4:32:00 PM (view original):
I’m really just referring to the idea that voting for someone because they have a D next to their name is an issue.

Democrat/Republican is not an issue. They're political parties.

Did I misread your post earlier? I swear you said something about rsp voting based on the D.

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 2:34:00 PM (view original):
So, that's all you have on her? She's a conservative? I see how you decide who to vote for. You look at the letter next to the name and go with the D.

yeah, here.

Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:56:00 PM (view original):

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:38:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:28:00 PM (view original):

Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):
Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.

I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.

This is a weird take.

If if I ask you to roll a sixsided die and attempt to get a six, your odds of rolling a six would be one in six. Your odds of rolling something other than a six would be five in six.

If I say it’s likely that you won’t roll a six and then you do roll a six, was I wrong?

Yes, I agree polling is very difficult, but it's similar to sports betting. Creating spreads in Vegas is far from an exact science, but if oddsmakers are consistently way off base they lose credibility.

I don't think Silver was way off base in 2016. He had Clinton ahead nationally and she ended up ahead nationally.

And Silver had Trump's odds of winning at something like 1 in 3...those aren't long odds.

Silver was very close with the popular vote, but if I remember correctly he gave Clinton somewhere around an 85% chance of winning.