good start kid

Posted by jlrunruh on 7/18/2013 9:24:00 AM (view original):
Okay, does it have a copyright?OR can i at least borrow a couple players

It's your money, man.  I won't tell you what you can or can't do with it.

Well, I'll just go back to having a stinky team.

Posted by thisredbox on 7/3/2013 8:30:00 PM (view original):

I just submitted a team with all players between 22.7 and 27.9 usage (besides three junkers). Kinda high on the usage side, but pretty consistent. Everybody at four usage points except Timmy at 6. I'm predicting 81-1 (jk).

Name	Pos	Usage%	2pt%#	3pt%#	eFG%	OReb%	DReb%	Ast%	Stl%	Blk%
12-13 Tim Duncan	PF	27.9	50.2	28.4	50.3	6.8	27.7	11.0	1.1	5.0
10-11 Manu Ginobili	SG	26.2	49.5	34.7	50.9	2.0	11.1	20.4	2.3	0.7
80-81 Magic Johnson	SG	24.3	53.8	18.9	53.4	8.1	15.4	24.2	3.7	1.0
11-12 Stephen Curry	PG	24.1	51.4	45.7	58.3	2.2	10.7	24.1	2.4	0.6
07-08 Shaquille O'Neal	C	23.9	59.1	0.0	59.3	11.0	23.6	6.9	0.8	3.0
07-08 Chauncey Billups	PG	23.7	47.6	39.8	52.6	1.9	7.8	28.2	2.0	0.4
08-09 Kevin Garnett	PF	23.5	53.2	24.7	53.2	5.4	25.0	10.5	1.7	2.4
12-13 Chris Paul	PG	22.8	53.7	32.6	52.6	2.6	9.9	36.3	3.4	0.3
11-12 Manu Ginobili	SG	22.7	61.6	41.4	61.8	2.5	12.9	23.3	1.4	0.9
87-88 Rick Carlisle	SG	18.7	45.7	35.9	47.8	3.0	3.9	18.5	2.3	1.2
89-90 Leon Wood	SG	12.9	42.6	19.3	36.7	0.5	6.0	29.3	1.3	0.8
90-91 Tree Rollins	C	11.8	42.1	0.0	42.4	6.9	15.4	1.8	0.4	5.8

Just an update:

After 32 games we are currently 19-13, tied for the division lead. Not exactly on top of the world, but not a total failure. A bad rookie set that also doesn't fit out needs exceptionally well hasn't helped. With a CCD rookie set I'd like this team's chances in the playoffs a little better (DDD isn't helping our fatigue issues). I'm currently projecting them as a 2nd or 3rd round out.

Current avg rankings:

Team Stats
Pts: 8th
Oreb: 23rd (not too shocking)
Reb: 16th (ditto)
FT%: 4th
Ast: 5th
TO: 6th (6th best)
Stl: 3rd
FTM: 6th
3PA: 3rd
3PM: 3rd
avg A/T: 2nd

OPP
FG%: 7th (as in, our opponents shoot the 7th worst)
TO: 2nd (as in, our opponents commit the 2nd most turnovers)

A good a/t ratio and decent defense might be helping to alleviate some of the disadvantage we have at rebounding.

results of the first half of the experiment are in...

Ended up with a 14.8% tov%.
RL was 12.5%.

That's an 18.4% increase.

This was with the 19.5 usage points SL of Shaq (6 points), worm (.5), worm (1), mj (8) & cp3 (4).

Next part of experiment will replace Shaq with a low usage, rebounding monster.  I predict a less successful team overall (shaq's efg% was huge) and similar increase in turnovers.

Really need to test this in a more controlled environment but what can you do?

were you running up tempo ?    what sort of difference in tov% do you normally see ?

were you running up tempo ?    what sort of difference in tov% do you normally see ?

I always run up-tempo (unless I am sure my opponent has a superior team to mine).

Hard to go back and check, but it seems like 2-3% difference (translates to 15-20% increase) is the norm.  I really need to build a super low usage team to truly test it out, but I can't do that atm.

Does increased usage do anything positive for a team at all?  That's what I've been working on now for a bit.  I am building two similar OL teams to get some additional data to the years of accumulated data already found by myself and others.

Hypothesis:  Increased usage will result in a slight reduction of the increased turnovers the sim produces while simultaneously resulting in slightly a slightly better fg%.

The Test: I'm running two teams with a very similar estimated tov% but with varying usage.  One is just MJ/CP3 & a bunch of board lords.  The other is the same duo with a lower tov% shaq than I used in the previous example (01-02, 10% vs 04-05, 12.4%)

Team 1 has an estimated tov% of 12.7%.  Total usage points in SL is 14.
Team 2 has an estimated tov% of 12.3%.  Total usage points in SL is 19.

This extra usage in team 2 is translating to an additional 800 or so FGA and an additional 800 or so FTA (with only about 100 more tov).  Team 1 has about 500 more minutes, which means they'll rely a little less on rookies than team 2 will.

Let's see which version seems to have a higher tov% increase... and see if there is any correlation in fg% (much harder to determine because of all of the uncontrolled variables).


Here's team 1 (Ashifornia):

Name	Pos	Usage%	2pt%#	3pt%#	eFG%	OReb%	DReb%	Ast%	Stl%	Blk%
96-97 Michael Jordan	SG	33.2	50.6	37.2	51.6	3.9	12.5	13.6	2.1	0.8
09-10 Marcus Camby	C	12.9	47.4	28.5	47.7	11.9	30.0	10.6	1.9	3.8
88-89 Dennis Rodman	PF	14.1	61.1	23.4	60.1	16.9	20.6	5.2	1.1	1.9
11-12 Chris Paul	PG	24.5	51.1	37.3	52.2	2.1	8.9	32.6	3.3	0.1
94-95 Dennis Rodman	PF	10.9	57.2	0.0	57.1	20.1	36.5	7.7	0.9	0.8
10-11 Marcus Camby	C	11.8	39.7	0.0	39.8	12.8	32.9	10.5	1.3	3.8
11-12 Steve Novak	SF	16.3	50.9	47.3	67.5	0.9	10.2	1.6	0.7	0.5
11-12 Stephen Curry	PG	24.1	51.4	45.7	58.3	2.2	10.7	24.1	2.4	0.6
98-99 Dennis Rodman	PF	6.5	36.7	0.0	34.8	10.9	32.2	5.8	0.7	1.1
94-95 Trevor Ruffin	PG	35.4	46.6	38.2	52.3	2.8	5.1	18.2	1.9	0.4
94-95 Tracy Murray	SF	21.8	36.8	42.0	51.9	1.1	10.1	3.1	1.5	0.8
78-79 Steve Sheppard	SF	15.8	53.9	33.6	52.9	8.6	6.3	8.4	1.0	0.0

Here's team 2 (Ash Angeles):

Name	Pos	Usage%	2pt%#	3pt%#	eFG%	OReb%	DReb%	Ast%	Stl%	Blk%
96-97 Michael Jordan	SG	33.2	50.6	37.2	51.6	3.9	12.5	13.6	2.1	0.8
01-02 Shaquille O'Neal	C	31.9	58.2	0.0	57.9	10.4	20.1	10.4	0.8	3.3
92-93 Dennis Rodman	PF	10.7	46.9	20.7	44.4	15.3	35.0	5.0	0.9	1.1
11-12 Chris Paul	PG	24.5	51.1	37.3	52.2	2.1	8.9	32.6	3.3	0.1
94-95 Dennis Rodman	PF	10.9	57.2	0.0	57.1	20.1	36.5	7.7	0.9	0.8
06-07 Shaquille O'Neal	C	29.9	58.9	0.0	59.1	10.2	19.6	9.6	0.3	3.0
77-78 Mark Landsberger	PF	16.9	51.6	0.0	50.6	12.6	22.0	5.3	0.9	0.4
11-12 Stephen Curry	PG	24.1	51.4	45.7	58.3	2.2	10.7	24.1	2.4	0.6
98-99 Dennis Rodman	PF	6.5	36.7	0.0	34.8	10.9	32.2	5.8	0.7	1.1
94-95 Trevor Ruffin	PG	35.4	46.6	38.2	52.3	2.8	5.1	18.2	1.9	0.4
94-95 Tracy Murray	SF	21.8	36.8	42.0	51.9	1.1	10.1	3.1	1.5	0.8
82-83 Joe Kopicki	PF	14.4	45.6	0.0	45.1	9.5	23.2	5.4	1.9	0.6

Variables:

T1 using a Camby Rotation at C while T2 is using a Shaq rotation.
T1 uses 88-89 Worm while T2 is using 92-93 Worm.  This was necessary for salary purposes (and to give T2 a lift on the boards since Camby > Shaq)
T1 has about 500 more minutes than T2 (meaning less leaning on rookies).
T1 & T2 have some different backups.  Again, salary questions.
T1 will have 23 different opponents with varying defensive ratings & stl%s than T2.  This is a huge variable and could mean nothing in this test is significant.
The sim itself is extremely finicky and is prone to extreme variation itself without any changes at all.


When league play starts, I'll link team IDs for you to follow.

As long as you have at least 10 usage points on the court at all times, the key variable to look at is team usage% on the court (we've discussed this topic before).

but have never reached anything close to concrete.

and even if you do have those 10 points you can easily have all sorts of issues by triggering the individual penalties (unless you're playing my team in which case you get no turnovers and everyone shoots 5% over IRL and my team incurs all the penalties yours should be suffering)

Posted by felonius on 8/12/2013 11:49:00 PM (view original):
and even if you do have those 10 points you can easily have all sorts of issues by triggering the individual penalties (unless you're playing my team in which case you get no turnovers and everyone shoots 5% over IRL and my team incurs all the penalties yours should be suffering)

that's basically what I'm trying to figure out... how much usage do you need to offset the individual penalty? 

The typical up-tempo team ends up with 7500-8000 fgas in the sim.  Even drafting 14 usage points (and insuring the same tier for backups), I often only end up with 5500-5700 fgas (for 17k minutes drafted).  My goal was to up the amount of fgas drafted with the same number of minutes to above 6375 (for ratio purposes).  When I did that, I found that I needed/had a ton more usage than the common practice.

fwiw, I'm not counting FTAs b/c high fta guys never reach their RL totals unless you go super low usage.

The team that I have is supposed to be my best yet. They are 0-5 (exibition) whats wrong?
whatifsports.com/nba-l/stats.asp