Posted by BillyMartin1 on 3/8/2025 5:51:00 PM (view original):
So do we know the highest totals of + plays for a team in an OL?
I thought this thread might have this info but it doesn't, unless I missed it somewhere.
I have a team that's on pace for about 250+ plays, 3 games from the trade deadline.

Probably here:
https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=457571&threadID=12270945#l_12270945

Posted by just4me on 3/8/2025 11:25:00 PM (view original):

Posted by BillyMartin1 on 3/8/2025 5:51:00 PM (view original):
So do we know the highest totals of + plays for a team in an OL?
I thought this thread might have this info but it doesn't, unless I missed it somewhere.
I have a team that's on pace for about 250+ plays, 3 games from the trade deadline.

Probably here:
https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=457571&threadID=12270945#l_12270945

Wow, these are insane numbers.
Was this in an OL?
Also, about your Cameron not reaching 100 and going 0/14 and your team "slumping" in the last few games to fall short of 500, I have noticed that every one of my range teams have always failed to maintain the high +plays pace towards the end of the season.
For some inexplicable reason, every single one of them slow down considerably.
So, I would be shocked if my current team reaches 250, based on previous experience, it will probably be around 230-235.

Yeah, this was in an OL… the setup for it is a page or so back, but it was setup just to push the boundaries on + plays. I don’t think the team won a single game.

In the same thread, I think someone got 300+ plays on a team that did fairly well. Also, in one of my older bounties tpistolas won 90+ games and had ~300 + plays.

Here it is, he won 101 with 285 + plays:
https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=520033&threadID=11833165#l_11833165

Posted by just4me on 3/9/2025 11:21:00 AM (view original):
Here it is, he won 101 with 285 + plays:
https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=520033&threadID=11833165#l_11833165

Thanks for the link, very interesting discussion.

So, as I posted a few weeks ago, my team was on pace to make 250+ plays, and just as I had predicted, the pace considerably slowed down in the last quarter of the season, AS IT ALWAYS DOES with + plays, and the team ended up with only 225+.
So, for 120 games the team made 185+ plays, then only 40 in the last 42 games, which is a pace of 154 for 162 games.
I have tried A+++ teams at least a dozen times and every single time, I have noticed the same dramatic decrease in + plays in the last 1/4 of the season.
I can see no logical explanation for why this always happen other than it is somehow directly or indirectly programmed into the sim engine, for a reason I can't figure out.
@just4me, your Cameron failing to reach 100+ plays and your team falling short of 500 with a mysterious slump in the last few games also points in that direction.
Anyhow, my team ended up with 92 wins but failed to make the playoffs as it landed in a tough division/league.

Doesn't probabilities and "averages" statistically always regress to the mean?
Like IF you have a hitter way over performing for 120 games the hitter will regress towards his "norm" over the last 42 which will result in a much poorer production level.
That's what I always thought. And seems to be what I've observed/experienced anecdotally.

Could be an explanation, but that would assume that every single season had my teams overachieving before it averaged down. There were no instances where one of my range team performed better in the last quarter, which would mean that they were always overachieving in the first part of the season and never underachieving. That is also the case for just4me's example.
I've seen over achieving hitting teams have their average level down toward the end of season, but I have also seen under performing teams have their average go up in the last quarter.

Agree with that! It should go both ways you'd think.

it's easy to read patterns into random chance, but I can't possibly imagine there is something built into the sim for this. what does that line of code look like?

IF GameOfSeason > 140 THEN Range = Range * 0.5 ELSE Range END

why would anyone insert that into the code?

also this team I ran that topped 300, apparently went on a hot streak near the end of the season:

https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=498219&threadID=11400732#l_11400732

318 plus is really impressive. Which stadium were you using?
I know it seems improbable, even illogical to program +plays to diminish intentionally, that's why I also said that it could somehow be an indirect result of other programmed coding.
I just can't understand why it always happens to my teams and how it happened so obviously in just4me's team.

Also when I draft a range team, I'm somewhat limited in the +plays I can expect because I'm still aiming for a playoff spot, so I won't just draft all the highest RRF position players combined with high OAV pitchers.

Coors I think

I don’t attribute any particular patterns to what happened on my team above. There were other stretches in the season where Cameron went 6-7 games without a + play. I think people just tend to notice such stretches more as round numbers, records, or targets are approached. It’s just mathematical statistical distributions you’re going to get 12 heads in a row occasionally and sometimes 20-30 tails in a row. The coin isn’t programmed to run tails after a bunch of heads or vice versa. It just is what it is.