Posted by Jetson21 on 11/2/2021 11:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/2/2021 11:09:00 PM (view original):
OK I'm sorry but this is copium. In no way is the Virginia result good news for Democrats or bad news for Trump.

Tell me where I said it was good news for democrats.
Show me where you read - that I said there is good news.

I say it all the time but you have the worst reading comprehension for a smart person I have ever seen.
Again, you read with an agenda in your mind so you fail to fully understand what you read.
It is getting to be embarrassing.
I don’t mind people disagreeing but at least fully understand what I have written. You either can’t or won’t do that.

You directly said that it was "bad news for Trump" and that there was a "silver lining for Democrats."

I'm saying there is no silver lining. This is bad. We're going to get ******* crushed in 2022. I phrased my statement vaguely, so I see the confusion.

Posted by Jetson21 on 11/3/2021 12:10:00 AM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 11/3/2021 12:03:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Jetson21 on 11/2/2021 11:44:00 PM (view original):
It now looks like the Pupkin margin will be only around 3%. A Democrat incumbent has never ever ever won re-election after a democrat won the presidency so maccauliffe was an underdog by any historical trend.
And last time the dem was beaten by 17 points so while losing is bad news he almost changed history.

I believe that this shows that the democrats have more going for them in the midterms then they might think. And the Trump factor was not in any way a help in Virginia by all exit polls and the fact that Pupkin’s margin was much lower then past results.

A Democrat incumbent has never ever won re-election ever.

Incumbents aren't allowed to run in Virginia.

What a meaningless statistic.

Ok I said it wrong Mr. literal.
No Democrat can win after a Democrat has won election for President.

A very important statistic.

Ok, then that's also not true.

It's a southern state. It was all Democratic governors until the '60s. Without looking up the details of who the governors were, I'd bet quite a bit of money that when Wilson, FDR, Truman, and Kennedy were elected Virginia had Democratic governors and went on to elect more Democratic governors. So that means that, at best, your sample size is the elections of LBJ, Carter, Clinton, and Obama. And even then, given the changing demographics of the state the only one of those elections that you might imagine would have any kind of predictive power for this election would be the 2009 election following the Obama election.

So no, I don't think anyone particularly reasonable is going to see this as a sign that "Democrats have more going for them." And I would also point out that people like you who refuse to even use Youngkin's actual name are likely a significant factor in why the race went the way that it did. Trying to paint Youngkin with the Trump brush, when that didn't ever match his campaign messaging at all, was a horrible campaign strategy and let Youngkin define the policy battlegrounds.

Posted by tangplay on 11/3/2021 1:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Jetson21 on 11/2/2021 11:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/2/2021 11:09:00 PM (view original):
OK I'm sorry but this is copium. In no way is the Virginia result good news for Democrats or bad news for Trump.

Tell me where I said it was good news for democrats.
Show me where you read - that I said there is good news.

I say it all the time but you have the worst reading comprehension for a smart person I have ever seen.
Again, you read with an agenda in your mind so you fail to fully understand what you read.
It is getting to be embarrassing.
I don’t mind people disagreeing but at least fully understand what I have written. You either can’t or won’t do that.

You directly said that it was "bad news for Trump" and that there was a "silver lining for Democrats."

I'm saying there is no silver lining. This is bad. We're going to get ******* crushed in 2022. I phrased my statement vaguely, so I see the confusion.

Depends. If there's a significant turnaround on covid and Democrats manage to come together on infrastructure legislation at least, it could change the political landscape a lot. I don't think the supply chain issues and inflationary pressure will be resolved a year from now, but they could be better. That would change the political landscape a lot.

I also don't think that candidates like Youngkin who distance themselves from Trump are going to be able to get on the ballot in states with traditional primaries.

Posted by dahsdebater on 11/3/2021 12:03:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Jetson21 on 11/2/2021 11:44:00 PM (view original):
It now looks like the Pupkin margin will be only around 3%. A Democrat incumbent has never ever ever won re-election after a democrat won the presidency so maccauliffe was an underdog by any historical trend.
And last time the dem was beaten by 17 points so while losing is bad news he almost changed history.

I believe that this shows that the democrats have more going for them in the midterms then they might think. And the Trump factor was not in any way a help in Virginia by all exit polls and the fact that Pupkin’s margin was much lower then past results.

A Democrat incumbent has never ever won re-election ever.

Incumbents aren't allowed to run in Virginia.

What a meaningless statistic.

LOL!

Posted by dahsdebater on 11/3/2021 1:39:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Jetson21 on 11/3/2021 12:10:00 AM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 11/3/2021 12:03:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Jetson21 on 11/2/2021 11:44:00 PM (view original):
It now looks like the Pupkin margin will be only around 3%. A Democrat incumbent has never ever ever won re-election after a democrat won the presidency so maccauliffe was an underdog by any historical trend.
And last time the dem was beaten by 17 points so while losing is bad news he almost changed history.

I believe that this shows that the democrats have more going for them in the midterms then they might think. And the Trump factor was not in any way a help in Virginia by all exit polls and the fact that Pupkin’s margin was much lower then past results.

A Democrat incumbent has never ever won re-election ever.

Incumbents aren't allowed to run in Virginia.

What a meaningless statistic.

Ok I said it wrong Mr. literal.
No Democrat can win after a Democrat has won election for President.

A very important statistic.

Ok, then that's also not true.

It's a southern state. It was all Democratic governors until the '60s. Without looking up the details of who the governors were, I'd bet quite a bit of money that when Wilson, FDR, Truman, and Kennedy were elected Virginia had Democratic governors and went on to elect more Democratic governors. So that means that, at best, your sample size is the elections of LBJ, Carter, Clinton, and Obama. And even then, given the changing demographics of the state the only one of those elections that you might imagine would have any kind of predictive power for this election would be the 2009 election following the Obama election.

So no, I don't think anyone particularly reasonable is going to see this as a sign that "Democrats have more going for them." And I would also point out that people like you who refuse to even use Youngkin's actual name are likely a significant factor in why the race went the way that it did. Trying to paint Youngkin with the Trump brush, when that didn't ever match his campaign messaging at all, was a horrible campaign strategy and let Youngkin define the policy battlegrounds.

Misstated - I said they have more going for them then they think.
you do not have a sense of humor mahsdebater.
I don’t agree with your statistical analysis.
At least I brought out 17 to 3 points comparison .
You bring nothing to the table.

Since I think Mcsuliffe did as well as one could expect for this race by Virginia history and because I see more dem achievements coming to upgrade the usual bad midterms and because of the Trump factor that I believe brought out more Dems in Va then there would have been I think that the Dems have a chance to keep majorities and n Congress but if they go lose the house it won’t be by much.

Now I like my analysis and if you disagree then you do. Maybe you are just not as reasonable as you insist.

Posted by dahsdebater on 11/3/2021 1:42:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/3/2021 1:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Jetson21 on 11/2/2021 11:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/2/2021 11:09:00 PM (view original):
OK I'm sorry but this is copium. In no way is the Virginia result good news for Democrats or bad news for Trump.

Tell me where I said it was good news for democrats.
Show me where you read - that I said there is good news.

I say it all the time but you have the worst reading comprehension for a smart person I have ever seen.
Again, you read with an agenda in your mind so you fail to fully understand what you read.
It is getting to be embarrassing.
I don’t mind people disagreeing but at least fully understand what I have written. You either can’t or won’t do that.

You directly said that it was "bad news for Trump" and that there was a "silver lining for Democrats."

I'm saying there is no silver lining. This is bad. We're going to get ******* crushed in 2022. I phrased my statement vaguely, so I see the confusion.

Depends. If there's a significant turnaround on covid and Democrats manage to come together on infrastructure legislation at least, it could change the political landscape a lot. I don't think the supply chain issues and inflationary pressure will be resolved a year from now, but they could be better. That would change the political landscape a lot.

I also don't think that candidates like Youngkin who distance themselves from Trump are going to be able to get on the ballot in states with traditional primaries.

Everything you said could still come to pass and it wouldn't significantly help Democrats. The trend is that American politics is a yo-yo. The COVID case rate is significantly down right now but Biden's approval is still falling. Dems could pass infrastructure but Republicans will just invent a new meaningless culture war issue and no one will care.

The only hope for Democrats is if Trump involves himself in the GOP primary process and heavily pushes voters away from candidates like Youngkin. That will be something to watch throughout the next year.

Posted by tangplay on 11/3/2021 2:56:00 AM (view original):

Posted by dahsdebater on 11/3/2021 1:42:00 AM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/3/2021 1:33:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Jetson21 on 11/2/2021 11:27:00 PM (view original):

Posted by tangplay on 11/2/2021 11:09:00 PM (view original):
OK I'm sorry but this is copium. In no way is the Virginia result good news for Democrats or bad news for Trump.

Tell me where I said it was good news for democrats.
Show me where you read - that I said there is good news.

I say it all the time but you have the worst reading comprehension for a smart person I have ever seen.
Again, you read with an agenda in your mind so you fail to fully understand what you read.
It is getting to be embarrassing.
I don’t mind people disagreeing but at least fully understand what I have written. You either can’t or won’t do that.

You directly said that it was "bad news for Trump" and that there was a "silver lining for Democrats."

I'm saying there is no silver lining. This is bad. We're going to get ******* crushed in 2022. I phrased my statement vaguely, so I see the confusion.

Depends. If there's a significant turnaround on covid and Democrats manage to come together on infrastructure legislation at least, it could change the political landscape a lot. I don't think the supply chain issues and inflationary pressure will be resolved a year from now, but they could be better. That would change the political landscape a lot.

I also don't think that candidates like Youngkin who distance themselves from Trump are going to be able to get on the ballot in states with traditional primaries.

Everything you said could still come to pass and it wouldn't significantly help Democrats. The trend is that American politics is a yo-yo. The COVID case rate is significantly down right now but Biden's approval is still falling. Dems could pass infrastructure but Republicans will just invent a new meaningless culture war issue and no one will care.

Very good point.
It all comes down to turnout and the independents.

Posted by tangplay on 11/3/2021 2:57:00 AM (view original):
The only hope for Democrats is if Trump involves himself in the GOP primary process and heavily pushes voters away from candidates like Youngkin. That will be something to watch throughout the next year.

I don’t agree that the Dems can’t be stronger in the midterms but I agree that if trump gets involved that would be a big big help.

I will not stop anyone from blaming something specific but the truth is the median american voter is, and always has been, the problem.

Per the exit polls, the Virginia electorate tonight supported both vaccine mandates and Confederate monuments.

wtf do you do with that

Posted by Uofa2 on 11/3/2021 10:34:00 AM (view original):
I will not stop anyone from blaming something specific but the truth is the median american voter is, and always has been, the problem.

Per the exit polls, the Virginia electorate tonight supported both vaccine mandates and Confederate monuments.

wtf do you do with that

Apparently the electorate tonight also was 50/50 in support for Biden and Trump

Republicans turned out, Democrats didn't. Welcome to the struggles of winning elections as the governing party.

Posted by Uofa2 on 11/3/2021 10:34:00 AM (view original):
I will not stop anyone from blaming something specific but the truth is the median american voter is, and always has been, the problem.

Per the exit polls, the Virginia electorate tonight supported both vaccine mandates and Confederate monuments.

wtf do you do with that

It is an interesting point. I think it has a lot to do with the low dem turnout which is really not surprising after a presidential win.
Unfortunately.
Somehow the Democratic Party needs to grow a more committed 18 - 35 electorate in off year elections.
And the Independent group is a fickle set.

Posted by tangplay on 11/3/2021 11:15:00 AM (view original):

Posted by Uofa2 on 11/3/2021 10:34:00 AM (view original):
I will not stop anyone from blaming something specific but the truth is the median american voter is, and always has been, the problem.

Per the exit polls, the Virginia electorate tonight supported both vaccine mandates and Confederate monuments.

wtf do you do with that

Apparently the electorate tonight also was 50/50 in support for Biden and Trump

Republicans turned out, Democrats didn't. Welcome to the struggles of winning elections as the governing party.

Exactly right. Which is why I am not panicking about the midterms.

Also against the historical voting trends is the terrible failure of the Democratic Party to bring home the bacon on the infrastructure bills.
That surely depressed some dem voters and I think infuriated the fickle hyper critical punish those in power independent voters.

If the Dems finished the bills at least a few weeks ago one must wonder if Mcauliffe would not have beaten the odds because he fell by only 85,000 votes.

WIS Human Interest News Department

Tamara Stroganoff ran a personal best in the Boston marathon. She also pooped her pants halfway into the race but did not stop and finished the race strong.
Among her fellow runners there was no judgement.
She works for a New York gastroenterology practice, of course.
If you need to call her there press number 1 for the directory and press number 2 for her department.