I don't think heavy usage automatically indicates an inherent advantage. It may still persist because of the misconception that it HAS an advantage when in fact it does not.

Posted by contrarian23 on 9/15/2020 2:04:00 PM (view original):

Posted by skunk206 on 9/14/2020 3:54:00 PM (view original):

Posted by skunk206 on 9/13/2020 10:54:00 PM (view original):
I sent in a ticket

The word from admin is "No, switch hitters do not get the bonus."

I'm not 100% convinced this is correct. Didn't seble also say earlier that the 1B park rating did not apply to hits in general? Everything we know from the Bessire presentation says otherwise. For many it years Tom Z was the primary owner of SLB, and seble owned other sims (basketball, I think, was his primary one). So I am not convinced he correctly knows all the nuances of the code.

Certainly, the fact the so many owners, especially in OLs, prioritize switch hitters over LH or RH suggests that there is some inherent advantage to using them. Not conclusive, but certainly suggestive. There's probably an empirical study to be done here, and possibly an experimental one as well (future TWISL theme perhaps).

To be clear, I don't think he is deliberately misleading us - but I think he may be mistaken.

Yes, he did originally say that, and then walked it back a little when I asked for clarification using the slides. I found a quote from Tom Z in one of the dev chats that seems to make it very clear that it refers to hits in general (and I quoted it on the previous page). I definitely don't think seble is misleading us, but I do think he may be occasionally mistaken on some of the finer details.

That said, he may be correct in that switch hitters don't get the bonus, but they still have an inherent advantage in that they also don't get penalized like the R/L matchups; which is how I always understood it.

I would love to be part of a test on this, but we'd have to run through a good amount of data for anything concrete. Probably $65-70m rosters, neutral park, fine window of AVG/AVG+/AVG# and BB/100PA so both SH and RH/LH groups have a similar baseline we can more easily measure from. Reduce other variables as much as possible for AVG output. Have all pitchers be same handedness and all non-switch hitters be divided equally to see departure from statline matching same handedness versus opposite handedness. Equal # of SH, LH, and RH hitters. Good PA and IP amount so fatigue doesn't factor in.

I was looking at Page 1

	HBP/PA	BB/(PA-HBP)	H/AB	K/(OUT)	HR/HIT	2B/HIT	3B/HIT
Pitcher%	47.8	43.5	46.7	45.6	39.7	15.2	11.6
Hitter%	52.2	56.5	53.3	54.4	60.3	84.8	88.4

Does this mean necessarily that i should concentrate on Batters / Batting and maybe even look for Players who hit say for instance an inordinate amount of Triples ?

yeah guys with high doubles and triples rates do very well in the sim

Found this exchange in a Q/A with tzentmeyer from 2005. It seems to support Contrarian's OP

Any answer as to the impact of the -2 singles at skydome? Will the lost singles become outs, or will they contribute to the additional doubles (+2) and HR (+1)? (zbrent716 - Hall of Famer - 7:37 PM)

It should result in fewer hits in the Skydome; they don't necessarily have to be redistributed elsewhere if the other factors are neutral.

Posted by contrarian23 on 10/1/2020 2:41:00 PM (view original):
All of the information in this post comes from a presentation that Paul Bessire at WIS delivered in 2009. You may still be able to find this online somewhere. If anything has changed since 2009, what is listed here may no longer be accurate.

Step 1: Determine if an unusual event occurs (defined as IBB, WP, PB, SB, CS, SH, H&R, Balk, Pickoff) or if it is a normal PA
Step 2: If normal PA, determine if HBP or not
Step 3: If not HBP, determine if walk or not. At this point, if the PA does not result in a walk, then we have an "at bat"
Step 4: Determine if the at bat results in a hit or an out (included park adjustments and any platoon advantage)

If the result of an at bat is an out, then do the following:
Step 5: Strikeout, or "normal" out (and if it's a normal out, is it a groundout or flyout, and in which direction)
Step 6: If "normal" out, determine if an error occurs (fielding rating) or if it becomes a hit (range rating, minus plays)

If the result of an at bat is a hit, then do the following:
Step 7: Determine if HR or "normal - in play" (Park effects used to determine HR)
Step 8: If "normal - in play" then determine if fielder converts it into an out (range, plus play)
Step 9: If it remains a hit, determine what kind of hit: triple, double, single (Park effects used to determine type of hit)

The exact calculations along the way - such as whether an at bat results in an out or a hit - are where WIS's method of Log5 normalization are used. These are also impacted by: platoon advantage, park effects, and how much each outcome is dependent on the batter or the pitcher.

In the same presentation, WIS used the following breakdowns to determine how much the batter and pitcher were responsible for each outcome:

	HBP/PA	BB/(PA-HBP)	H/AB	K/(OUT)	HR/HIT	2B/HIT	3B/HIT
Pitcher%	47.8	43.5	46.7	45.6	39.7	15.2	11.6
Hitter%	52.2	56.5	53.3	54.4	60.3	84.8	88.4

***2020 addition to this post. Note that the decision of "hit or out" comes BEFORE the decision as to whether the plate appearance results in a strikeout. This is very important. You will occasionally see references to comments about low-K pitchers having a greater chance of plus plays made behind them, which is not correct. If the order of events was first "strikeout or ball in play?" and then "if ball in play, is a hit or an out?" then low-K pitchers WOULD have a plus-play advantage. But the algorithm does not work that way.

C23....So if you start at Step 1 and then below the hitter is 56.5% of the Outcome if a BB or not...if you pitch Eckersley (the year he walked like 4 in 80 innings) against Babe Ruth or Bonds...the crazy BB years....doesnt really matter what Eck did, the batters will determine the BB more than the pitchers control.

No issue, just wanted to ensure I interpreted this correctly.

This is correct. And it is absolutely based on real data. All of those weights are based on Bessire's (or someone's) exhaustive analysis of real life outcomes. More than a decade ago I looked at it in depth, specifically to see if it held true for extreme control pitchers...I found dozens of low-BB pitchers and looked at what happened in PAs where they faced high-BB hitters. On average, and in almost every specific case, the frequency of walks in those plate appearances was closer to the hitter's actual walk rate than the pitcher's actual walk rate.

Perfect. I think someone finally convinced me that what I have been assuming is correct. My observation (non-scientific) over a decade has been that hitters almost always reach their BB totals regardless of cap/stadium. Extreme Control pitchers / Just like low HR/9 guys (usually never meet much less outperform) their RL numbers. Obviously a guy with 9999 HR/9+ can still give up an occassional HR but I have had guys like that give up 5-10 as Relievers.