The Shuffle Draft Topic

Hitting
.338 .409 .603
Pitching
1497 IP
.184 OAV
0.89 Whip
0.67 HR/9
11/13/2024 9:51 PM
Round 21

1999 Phil Nevin

from the Padres
11/13/2024 10:54 PM
Round 21
Braves
P Pat Jarvis 1968


Mr Irrelevant............................yup, that's me.
11/13/2024 11:11 PM
It has been a while since I posted a strategy writeup so I thought I would give it a try here.

I lucked into finding this league just in time. Most of the top-tier teams had already been picked so I chose the Padres as my ticket for admission. I always like bheid408's leagues and the way the draft evolved from one-pick-a-day into its actual flow was especially enjoyable. Below is the strategy, such as it is.

Original keepers - Not much hesitation on the hitting side: Infielder 1996 Ken Caminiti and Outfielder 1994 Tony Gwynn were instant locks. As for pitching, I settled on 1998 Trevor Hoffman as my reliever since he had more innings pitched than some of the ridiculously good other options. For my starter, I stumbled onto 2020 Dinelson Lamet, who hasn't been that great for me when I have used him but his RL numbers are too good to ignore and I'm hoping for the best with him (maybe in long relief).

Round 1 - Reds. Not who I was hoping for because starting pitching is usually my top priority early on. Turning to hitting I jumped on 1969 Pete Rose, who has the highest batting average of any available switch-hitters with 500 or more PAs in the pool (Mantle, Chipper and McGee were protected). Decent fielding OF, as well.

Round 2 - Cardinals - Again, no starting pitching I felt warranted such a high pick without looking at hitting. Looked at 1957 Musial versus Pujols in general and decided on the 2008 Albert Pujols. There are a total of 15 players in the entire database between 1955 and 2024 that have over 500 PA and slash 350/450/650. 12 were unavailable because they were either from franchises not chosen (like Rockies, Royals, CWS) or protected (Bonds, Cash, Ted Williams). Of the available 3, one was taken in Round 1 (2020 Juan Soto). I took this Pujols in Round 2. The other one was not even drafted AT ALL. That would be 2000 Manny Ramirez.

Round 3 - Athletics - Still holding out for better teams to start building my SP rotation. Catfish was protected, 1971 Vida Blue is over $13mm and 1980 Norris went in the first round. Rickey is not an option either. Playing with high OBP and Slugging Percentage options to complement Pujols I found 1996 Mark McGwire. There are only a total of 9 players between 1955 and 2024 that have over 500 PA and OBP over .460 and Slugging Percentage over .700. This McGwire is one and the other 8 are unavailable for drafting (Bonds, Ted Williams, Mantle, Cardinals McGwire and Big Hurt). Already playing the DH card.

Round 4 - Giants - First we start looking at SP options. 2003 Jason Schmidt went in Round 1 and Marichal was a keeper. I like Lincecum but maybe not this high. Trying to stay with the power hitting theme I see two possibilities: 2012 Buster Posey and 1965 Willie Mays (and his excellent fielding). There are only 9 players with over 500 PA that are eligible here that have over 150 OPS+ and 50 or more home runs. Only four are available for the draft after keepers. Two of them are Aaron Judges. One is the 1996 McGwire that I took in Round 3. The other is 1965 Willie Mays. With no dead ball pitchers we are now commiting to building a power hitting juggernaut. A bit concerned about 3 righties in a row here but any ballpark is available. Ballpark strategy might become table talk as the draft progresses so I will keep my eyes open.

Round 5 - Reds again - Ugh. We already know there aren't any 150+ IP pitchers that I want here. Not sold on 1977 Seaver. I still need shortstop (Larkin? another right hander?), 2B and a catcher (Bench? another right hander? and 2 seasons have already been drafted). I could go with 1977 Foster but I already have 3 OF and a DH anyway. I need to prevent opponents who use that same strategy as best I can. There are three RP options in this case since Aroldis is a keeper: 1967 Ted Abernathy, 1964 Bill Henry and 1986 Rob Murphy. Decided to go with Murphy since his HR-allowed number is zero.

Round 6 - Astros. Finally some SP options. Is there anybody still available here who stands out with a low HR-allowed number and maybe a low OAV? Too bad my first choice, 1980 JR Richard, went the round before. I would have taken him without hesitation even though his IP are on the low side. In my switch-hitter only draft league (in which I will fail to make the playoffs) the 1981 Nolan Ryan is number 7 in the entire league in ERA for qualified pitchers. Also, he has only allowed 5 HR in 173 IP. Looks like a good fit.

Round 7 - Astros again - Still more SP available. Plenty of good ones. Also, some really nice low-HR relievers as well. That is just a little too logical. We know there are some power hitters available here as well so let's take a look. In the entire database there are only 3 shortstop rated players with over 40 HRs and and .420 OBP. Two have them are protected (and are D-/D-) at the position. The other one is A/D rated at shortstop. So what if he is a right-handed hitter. We are adding 2019 Alex Bregman to play short since we already have Caminiti at 3b.

Round 8 - Athletic again - We already know from Round 3 that there are no SPs here that I really want. I can use pitching and the A's have a lot of good RPs here. 2018 Blake Treinen is still available. Fits perfectly.

Round 9 - Reds for the third time. In the past three rounds, Bill Henry went and so did another Bench. Abernathy is still available. I also need a lefty hitter. In the entire eligible database there are only 19 players with over 450 PA that have an OBP over .470. Only three were ever available to be drafted after keepers and ineligible teams were subtracted. Two of them went in the first round (2020 Juan Soto and 1993 Olerud). The other one is 2012 Joey Votto who I am taking here.

Round 10 - Reds again. No need to research. 1967 Ted Abernathy joins the team.

Round 11 - Giants. Since we last visited the Giants, the best Posey and Linceum are gone. Role player 2005 Randy Winn is also gone. Still going to hold out for some better SP team options. I like 2012 Marco Scutaro as a potential starting point for a 2b platoon. Of course, his A-/A+ fielding at shortsop as a backup for Bregman is also a plus.

Round 12 - Giants again. Probably checked the available RPs but passed on them. Still committed to a power-hitting team and willing to consider role players if I am going to look at hitting. Going with the 1995 Matt Williams. Only 358 PA and another righty but B/A+ fielding and .647 slugging percentage.

Round 13- Dodgers. Finally! Five Kershaws are already gone. So are some other studs like 72 Sutton and 15 Greinke. But there are still plenty of SPs available. Prioritizing HR/9 I start looking at 1985 Orel Hershiser. I know he has performed well in the aforementioned switch-hitter league so I check the numbers. He is number 5 overall in ERA and has given up 10 HRs in 227 IP. No hesitation in adding him here.

Round 14 - Padres. First time revisiting my original team. There has been some discussion about Hilltop Park being in the mix. Certainly favors right- handed power-hitting teams and my roster qualifies. If I do go that route for my home stadium, I might just want to sacrifice a roster spot for a specialist. I don't really manage extremely low IP players well, but 2020 Trevor Rosenthal is such an outlier. We shall see if we can make him successful.

Round 15 - Dodgers again. Yes!! Still more SP quality available. All three of my starter are RHP so far. I think I need to look at LHP for some balance regardless of the stadium I ultimately choose. 2012 Clayton Kershaw is not that special compared to his other monster seasons but he may be serviceable this late in the draft. Happy to have him here.

Round 16 - Yankees for the first time. I still have some serious holes to fill and should get some help here. My biggest priorities are catcher and 2b. My number one target on this team for several rounds had been 2007 Posada. Of course, schwarze got him the round before. The 1961 Elston Howard was picked the round before last. Moving on to 2b only the 2010 Cano had been taken so there may be an alternative here I like the 2012 Robinson Cano. His best OPS+ in his career. Most HR as a Yankee. A/B fielding and 697 PA/162. Works well considering the corner I have painted myself into.

Round 17 - Cubs again. Will be looking at catcher first, SP second and RP third from here on in. Going step by step: 1) catcher - Wilkins is gone. Nothing more to see here. 2) SP - Not much left here at this stage. I am using 1963 Dick Ellsworth in the mega schwarze/juice extravaganza and he is sucking. Theoretically, he should be decent but we are not that desperate yet to finalize my rotation with him. 3) RP - Stud 2021 Craig Kimbrel is still available. Maybe we can partner him with Rosenthal. That takes management so only maybe on that.

Round 18 - Indians/Guardians. First time!! Still some value here in all of my categories of need. C) Too late to try to finesse a platoon so Victor Martinez is definitely an option. Both 2006 and 2007 at over 640 PA each would be very satisfactory at this stage of the draft. SP) I like Sam McDowell in general because of several low HR allowed/low OAV seasons. He also is a workhorse. RP) Not considering here because of other priority options. I need a catcher and am choosing the 2007 Victor Martinez. Better arm and slugging percentage.

Round 19 - Cubs one more time. We just had them two rounds ago, Catcher is no longer an urgent need but SP sure is. Remember when I said that we were not desperate enough yet to plug 1963 Dick Ellsworth into the bottom of the rotation. With only 2 rounds remaining we are now that desperate.

Round 20 - Red Sox for the first time. I have been craving a Red Sox draw forever. There are still players available here that would be ideal. No Carlton Fisks have been taken. The 1972 version has over 500 PA with an OPS+ of 140. A huge upgrade over Victor Martinez. That would be a no-brainer except there is a starting pitcher here who I have had my eyes on literally since the draft began. That would be 2002 Derek Lowe. Taking him as fast as I can type. Even if Lowe had already been gone I would probably have taken one of the many decent Clemens options and still be in the position to take my chances with a possible catcher upgrade and some extra OF at bats.

Round 21 - Padres. Full circle. Mostly concerned with finding as many decent catcher PAs as I can. A combo player that could also play OF might be too much to ask. Enter 1999 Phil Nevin. Over 400 PA. Although his primary position is 3b, he is decently rated at both catcher and OF. Slugging over .525, as well. We Want Phil.

Ballpark and Team Name. Trying to come up with a team name that had something to do with "shuffle" was not easy. I tried any musical connection and struck out. During my google search I found the "Ickey (Woods) Shuffle" and that made my laugh. With that team name I had to abandon any pretense of being able to strategically choose a stadium and just defaulted to Riverfront Stadium where Ickey played his home games.

Great draft. bheid408 did a great job running it. Thanks to all.
11/16/2024 2:02 AM (edited)
11th team to pick, we chose the Cubs mainly to bolster the rotation with Jake Arrieta. We kept Arrieta, Bruce Sutter and his 108 IP as a reliever, Sammy Sosa was a no brainer in the OF. IF was a tough decision between Derek Lee at 1B or Ernie Banks at SS. Ultimately went with Ernie with the A/A- Def at a premium position (plus the 45 HR)

Round 1 - Tigers
We check the pitching side, nothing excites me at all. 2013 Miguel Cabrera is the pick despite his shaky glove at 3B. It's the 1st round, ultimately can move him to DH if need be.

Round 2 - Cubs
Of course D. Lee went in round 1, so we check the pitching. Yu Darvish comes to mind. Just about to pull the trigger but I pivot to 1993 Rick Wilkins to be my main C. The A+ arm and good power are the ultimate decision maker here.

Round 3 - Padres
Not thrilled with this team, no bats that intrigue me. I think about Mike Adams but low inning RP this early I decide against and go with 2007 Jake Peavy to make sure we get some innings.

Round 4 - Nationals/Expos
This pick is screaming Tim Raines but every time I've used him, he disappoints. So I turn to a guy I love using as a platoon 2B/OF with good speed in 2016 Trea Turner

Round 5-Tigers (again)
2007 Magglio Ordonez is the choice here, I don't recall even considering anyone else. The D+ range worries me but we'll plan on sticking him in RF(ultimately he becomes my DH, more on that later)

Round 6- Nats/Expos
I'd really like to build innings up so I don't have to worry later, so I decide on 2017 Max Scherzer. The HR worry me but everything else is telling me to take him.

Round 7-Dodgers
YES! Round 7 , 1st team I'm excited to get. Lots of Kershaw's gone plus 2015 Greinke gone as well. We settle on the lowest K/9 Kershaw but happy to grab this 2013 version

Round 8-Astros
Probably the pick I debated on the most. 2B I don't think has many good options available rest of draft. I've had no success with Biggio so he's gone but Altuve staring me in face. We hate the thought of Gerrit Coles 1.23 HR/9 but we figure with him being the 5th SP we'd have, we can start him in pitchers parks with all the rest of those numbers so 2019 Cole it is.

Round 9-Giants
Robb Nen crossed our mind but this was a relatively easy decision. Had we not had Banks as our SS, Marco Scutaro may have been an option for part time SS but 2005 Randy Winn can platoon in CF

Round 10-Padres
I'm almost certain I'm going RP here with the amount of good options the Padres have. Go with the 2nd best Mike Adams in the 2011 version

Round 11- Cubs
Not gonna lie, other than getting Arrieta, a reason for taking the Cubs was because I didn't really think there was much depth to pick from for others. Now I've drawn them a 2nd time. I check everything out,.no pitchers I want. I find 2021 Frank Schwindel to play 1B as hopefully the RH platoon. I'm secretly hoping to get the Reds and grab Joey Votto as the LH platoon but wishful thinking.

Round 12-Yankees
Lots of RP intrigue me but I need a CF. Oh, 1998 Bernie Williams is available and makes a good combo with Winn

Round 13-Yankees
Back to back Yanks. I've never used him and I'm sure I'll regret it but I only have Rick Wilkins from the left side at this point so we go with 1986 Don Mattingly to man 1B against RHP

Round 14-Red Sox
Debated going with David Ortiz(who never got drafted )to DH here and give me another LH stick. I've only used him once or twice but he was good. But 2017 Craig Kimbrels real life numbers are stupid so we decide on him, especially since we need the innings .

Round 15- Giants
I was shocked to find a $9.45 mil A+ range 1958 Willie Mays available here. While his bigger power years are obviously gone and I wasn't really looking for an OF, this felt like an easy pick and ultimately allows me to move Magglio s D+ range to DH

Round 16-Athletics
It's getting late, I only have barely over 300 PA at 2B, need a backup RH catcher and need some bullpen innings. Some decent RP available but I'm not sure a better other 2B option will become available than 1999 Randy Velarde

Round 17-Red Sox
Same thing as round 16, I've had success using this guy before so needing that RH catcher we go with 2020 Kevin Plawecki leaving a couple RP out there.

Round 18- Astros
Had I not taken Velarde 2 rounds before, I almost certainly would have went Altuve here. With 4 rounds left , we need a RP with some decent innings. Although he doesn't seem to sim well, we choose 2002 Octavio Dotel. Kind of backed ourselves into this situation, waiting for RP

Round 19- Red Sox
Almost took this guy in round 17 so happy to grab the Sox again here. 2015 Rich Hill is the pick. Maybe we use him as a short inning RP or we use him to start 5 games throughout the year against divisional opponents but those numbers for 29 innings are ridiculous

Round 20- Twins
Gotta be another arm and preferably left handed. 2013 Caleb Thielbar seems to be the best option left of the Twins although I would have preferred a few more innings

Round 21- Athletics
OK, it wouldn't hurt to grab a couple more innings(ultimately I have the fewest IP of any team), maybe a defensive replacement for Cabrera at 3B or I could use a couple more PA at 2B. Check all those options, nothing excites me. Do a search for high Slg % , oh my. .726 slug out of 1993 Mark McGwire is too good to pass on even if only for 100 or so PA.

This was a great draft , thank you all for making it go so smoothly and bheid for running the league . Looking forward to the season
11/16/2024 4:35 AM
I was fortunate enough to see bheid408 ad shortly after he posted it. I did not full understand the rules, as I had incorrectly assumed that each person would ultimately draft one player per franchise. So my strategy when selecting my franchise was to pick a franchise with four solid players near the top of the salary maximum and also a franchise that maybe didn't have a lot of great options for others to choose from.

I had originally selected the Cubs (Sosa, Santo, Arrieta, Sutter), but I changed it to the Astros before anybody else posted. Even though Jake Arrieta is better than Mike Scott I didn't want to go with two right handed hitters in Sosa and Santo. Meanwhile, I love '94 Jeff Bagwell and '01 Lance Berkman. '86 Mike Scott and '99 Billy Wagner will give up HRs but have low whips. Ballpark seleclion will be critical.
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Round 1 - Red Sox
'69 Rico Petrocelli
It felt a bit early to take '86 Clemens (he went in round 5). It really came down to Nomar vs Rico. I've never had much luck with Nomar and I really didn't want to have to worry about find a backup to supplement PAs. With Bagwell and Berkman and now Rico, it looks like I will be taking a HR park.
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Round 2 - Dodgers
'15 Zack Greinke
I was very lucky to pull the Dodgers this early. It came down to Greinke vs '72 Sutton. (There are plenty of Kershaws to choose from, so wanted to keep that option open). Greinke is simply better than Sutton, so that was my choice.
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Round 3 - Blue Jays
'06 B.J. Ryan
In retrospect, I should have taken '93 Roberto Alomar. Every franchise has good RPs, but getting a great switch hitting 2B would have been a better choice. Ryan is still one of the best lefty relievers in the database.
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Round 4 - Dodgers
'72 Don Sutton
2015 and 2016 Kershaw went in rounds 1 and 3, so I end up getting both Greinke and Sutton. How lucky am I? It should be noted that I am writing this after the season started, and in his first start, Sutton gave up 10 hits and 9 runs in 3.2 innings.
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Round 5 - Astros
'80 J.R. Richard
I was very close to taking Alex Bregman here (to play 3B). But there are a ton of 3B I would be happy with later in the draft (Santo, Beltre, Rolen, etc.), so instead I went with a cookie low-IP SP that I could use in relief. I really like how my pitching looks so far (M.Scott, Greinke, Sutton, B.Wagner, B.Ryan, Richard).
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Round 6 - Reds
'68 Pete Rose
At this point, I only had 3 power hitters and two are right-handed, so I wanted a lefty or switch hitter who also had a good average and wasn't dependent on HRs. I grabbed Rose's 2nd best hitting season.
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Round 7 - Twins/Senators
'64 Tony Oliva
Time for my first lefty batter. My other 2 OFs aren't great fielders, so I took Oliva's '64 season (B/B) to play CF for me, assuming I don't grab a better fielder later. Oliva is a high average hitter (with a little pop) who normalizes well.
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Round 8 - Red Sox
'18 Chris Sale
Maybe I should have taken '02 Derek Lowe here instead. But next to '16 Kershaw, '18 Sale is one of the best lefty SPs with fewer than 160 IPs. I plan on using him as a long reliever with some spot starts against lefty-heavy teams.
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Round 9 - Athletics
'09 Andrew Bailey
The A's don't really have a lot of useful hitters, so I went with the best RP here. I add another guy with a sub 0.90 whip, plus his IP/G = 1.23.
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Round 10 - Cubs
'64 Ron Santo
I still need a C, 2B, 3B and DH. Cubs have no catcher worth taking, but Sandberg and Santo were the two guys I was deciding between. I went back and forth before finally settling on Santo. Then I had to decide which season to use, '64 or '66. I went with the better hitting version over the A+ range version. Note sure if that was the right decision.
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Round 11 - Blue Jays
'05 Roy Halladay
One of the reasons I chose Santo over Sandberg is because there were a few 2B left that I would have been very happy with, including '93 Alomar (Blue Jays) and '10 Cano (Yankees). Well hallelujah, I ended up with the Blue Jays and was all ready to post '93 Alomar - then noticed that nocomm999 just took Alomar in round 10. Noooo! I could have taken a short inning modern RP that would certainly frustrate me, but instead decided on '05 Halladay's 142-IP season... He gives me a long reliever and spot starter. Heck, I could even go with a Halladay/Sale tandem if I don't get a fouth SP. Really hoping to pull Boston, while '02 Lowe is still available.
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Round 12 - Tigers
'14 Victor Martinez
Still needing a catcher, I considered taking '11 Victor Martinez (595 pa, .330 avg, D arm ). Instead, I gambled that I would get another shot at a decent catcher later. I love '14 Martinez even though he fills my DH slot. Not that it matters in an uncapped league, but I think he might be one of the best values ($6 million) in the entire database (assuming you are using DH). My offense is really coming together with Bagwell, Santo, Petrocelli, Berkman, Rose, Oliva, V.Martinez.
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Round 13 - Expos/Nats
'16 Daniel Murphy
Nine picks left and I still need a C and a 2B. This team has both with Gary Carter and Daniel Murphy. This is another round where I went back and forth, trying to figure out what was left at the position I passed on here. I decided there were enough catchers, so I went with the lefty 2B with a sweet .347 average. I do realize that I will need to use a pick on some backup PAs at 2B.
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Round 14 - Reds
'70 Johnny Bench
Bench was a great catcher in real life. He does not perform well in the sim, so he would not be my first choice, but somehow, his 2nd best season is still available (I actually prefer 1970 to 1972 due to a much better batting average). At this point in the draft and the fact I still needed a catcher made this a no-brainer pick. At this point, I decided to play at Hilltop Park to help guys like Bagwell, Petrocelli, Santo and Bench. My lefties and switch hitters aren't as thrilled with the park, but they are all high average guys anyway.
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Round 15 - Yankees
'07 Jorge Posada
Dang. Pulled the Yankees one round too late. Doesn't matter - I am still taking Jorge Posada here for his switch-hitting and for his .338 average. I considered Fritz Peterson as my SP4, but if I play in Hilltop, I really don't want a LH SP. I did briefly consider Bernie Williams, but I already have Berkman, Oliva, Rose and V.Martinez (DH)... so I would end up having to bench one of these guys.
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Round 16 - Expos/Nats
'84 Tim Raines
I strongly considered '73 Steve Rogers (134 ip, 2.10 erc#), but then realized I could knock off two needs. I need some PAs at 2B due to Murphy only having only 582 PA, and I needed a fourth OF who could play defense to replace Berkman late in the game. Raines is also good enough to start if I am playing in a negative HR park and/or playing a bad throwing catcher.
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Round 17 - Indians
'01 Steve Karsay
At this point in the draft, I really don't need much. More usable pitchers and some extra PAs at SS (Petrocelli only has 643). Love Karsay's 2001 partial season with the Indians (44 ips, 0.84 whip#, 1.22 erc#).
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Round 18 - Dodgers
'21 Max Scherzer
This was a key pick. Most of the top SPs were already selected. In fact, 15 of the first 17 Dodgers picks were pitchers (only '24 Ohtani and '08 Manny were hitters). I considered '99 Kevin Brown but instead went with '21 Max Scherzer. He has a 179-IP combined version with a 1.99 erc# but he's HR prone (1/15 hr/9). He has a 68-IP partial version with a 1.53 erc# with a more reasonable HR/9 (0.66). By making this pick, I could wait and see if I get another SP later and then decide which version to roster.
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Round 19 - Padres
'12 Chase Headley
This $7.4M player probably won't play much. He's an A+/C+ at 1B and an A/A- at 3B. Bagwell has 675 PA and Santo has 686, so it's possible Headley could start a few games, but he can come in for defense for Santo (B+/A-). Headley represents my sixth switch hitter, so that's cool.
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Round 20 - Giants
'21 Brandon Crawford
Rico Petrocelli only has 643 PA so he'll need to sit a few games. Crawford is a good fielder (A/B+). He can also hit a little. The lefty batter has a slash of .298/.373/.522. Note that calhoop drew the Red Sox this round and grabbed '02 Derek Lowe... which I dubbed the "Steal of the Draft".
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Round 21 - Reds
'15 Johnny Cueto
Apparently, I like SPs with 100-160 IPs (I have four). '15 Cueto has 131 IPs with a erc# of 2.02. So I really ended up with only 3 SPs with more than 200 IPs, but with Sale, Halladay and Cueto, I can mix and match and/or maybe "tandem" two of them.

I did decide to play in Hilltop park.
11/17/2024 2:05 PM (edited)
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