Posted by MikeT23 on 2/5/2015 8:52:00 AM (view original):
Posted by dahsdebater on 2/5/2015 12:06:00 AM (view original):
Going back to the manufacturing - large-scale manufacturing will absolutely not be returning to the US in the near future, and it only has to do with the costs of line employees very indirectly at best. The reality is that the world's big manufacturing plants in China, India, Singapore, Indonesia - especially the tech plants, which are the most profitable - employ literally thousands to tens of thousands of engineers. In the United States, it's difficult to impossible to rapidly assemble thousands of engineers in one place to start your new plant. In China, it's easy, and if you don't get them in no time you go to the government and they find them for you. Everything you guys are talking about - can we bring the cost of American labor and general cost of doing business down low enough to where the difference is covered by shipping costs - is almost irrelevant in light of the difficulty finding the skillled work force in the United States. I'm constantly shocked by the sheer number of people who are totally unaware of this barrier to modern manufacturing in the developed world.
When you say "engineers", you make it sound like college degrees are required to work an assembly line. Using moy's example of Boeing or Ford, I don't think they employed thousands of college educated people to man those positions. Both facilities employ roughly 6,000 people. Not tens of thousands. Say 1/5th are college educated, you're still speaking of 1,200 not "literally thousands".
I don't think you know what you're talking about at all. In fact, I know you don't.
Apple employs 30,000 engineers at their manufacturing facilities in China. And that doesn't include tens of thousands more who work for 3rd-party manufacturers of components Apple uses.
Like I said, large-scale tech manufacturing - the really high-margin stuff - isn't coming back any time soon. Boeing and Ford aren't what would traditionally be called tech companies, and they certainly aren't large-scale. Realistically, given the size of the total US labor force, 6000 is a drop in the bucket. If we look back at Apple, between their own manufacturing and associated component manufacturing, they're effectively supporting the employment of upwards of half a million Chinese workers. I'm not saying a 6000 employee plant isn't helping, but realistically, it's not doing much to improve the long-term employment or economic outlook for a country of 316 million, roughly half that in the active labor force.