Posted by bad_luck on 3/24/2016 11:51:00 AM (view original):
Trump has been the favorite in the polls essentially since he announced. There hasn't been any ebb and flow. Early last year it was Walker/Bush/Etc. Then it was Trump and only Trump.

The same polls show him getting destroyed in November.

Those same polls had Jeb and Walker leading at one point as well. Since entering the race, Trump has done a nice job and despite critics he's managed to continually grow his momentum... and yes there has been ebb and flow. In June Trump was at 4%, July 15%, August 24%, Sept 30%, Oct 22%, Nov 27%, Dec 36%, Feb 29%, March 41%. Oct and Feb were tough months for him but his campaign was able to turn it around and surge forward... unlike Rubio and Carson who also had momentum at one point and lost it.

Posted by moy23 on 3/24/2016 12:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 3/24/2016 11:51:00 AM (view original):
Trump has been the favorite in the polls essentially since he announced. There hasn't been any ebb and flow. Early last year it was Walker/Bush/Etc. Then it was Trump and only Trump.

The same polls show him getting destroyed in November.

Those same polls had Jeb and Walker leading at one point as well. Since entering the race, Trump has done a nice job and despite critics he's managed to continually grow his momentum... and yes there has been ebb and flow. In June Trump was at 4%, July 15%, August 24%, Sept 30%, Oct 22%, Nov 27%, Dec 36%, Feb 29%, March 41%. Oct and Feb were tough months for him but his campaign was able to turn it around and surge forward... unlike Rubio and Carson who also had momentum at one point and lost it.

Yes, two years before the general election, Bush was the GOP favorite in the polls. Then the candidates declared and Trump took the lead and hasn't given it up. No reason to think the polls are suddenly wrong.

Posted by bad_luck on 3/24/2016 12:14:00 PM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 3/24/2016 12:10:00 PM (view original):

Posted by bad_luck on 3/24/2016 11:51:00 AM (view original):
Trump has been the favorite in the polls essentially since he announced. There hasn't been any ebb and flow. Early last year it was Walker/Bush/Etc. Then it was Trump and only Trump.

The same polls show him getting destroyed in November.

Those same polls had Jeb and Walker leading at one point as well. Since entering the race, Trump has done a nice job and despite critics he's managed to continually grow his momentum... and yes there has been ebb and flow. In June Trump was at 4%, July 15%, August 24%, Sept 30%, Oct 22%, Nov 27%, Dec 36%, Feb 29%, March 41%. Oct and Feb were tough months for him but his campaign was able to turn it around and surge forward... unlike Rubio and Carson who also had momentum at one point and lost it.

Yes, two years before the general election, Bush was the GOP favorite in the polls. Then the candidates declared and Trump took the lead and hasn't given it up. No reason to think the polls are suddenly wrong.

8 months ago Trump was polling at 15% and now he is at 43%... so assuming the polls are correct as you say... then in 8 more months Trump should be at about 86%++ by October, No? Let's not be silly. The polling WILL CHANGE over time once Hillary and Trump duke it out.

Different polls show him at different sized leads (obviously). He was anywhere from +2 to +12 last July. +3 to +20 last November. +3 to +20 now.

But he's trending away from Clinton, and has been for a couple months. For a while they were close or even. Even as recently as December they were only a few points apart on average. But, the more exposure regular, non-white supremacists have to Trump, the less likely it is that he wins a general election.

I heard, or read, that in the 10 contested conventions, the leader was only nominated 3 times. I don't know if that applied to all parties or just the Repubs but, either way, it's not unheard of for the leader to been given a gift basket and sent home. In fact, it's more likely than not.

What say ye, moy?

Posted by bad_luck on 3/24/2016 12:25:00 PM (view original):
Different polls show him at different sized leads (obviously). He was anywhere from +2 to +12 last July. +3 to +20 last November. +3 to +20 now.

But he's trending away from Clinton, and has been for a couple months. For a while they were close or even. Even as recently as December they were only a few points apart on average. But, the more exposure regular, non-white supremacists have to Trump, the less likely it is that he wins a general election.

I agree with you that the widening gap is concerning...... but again he hasn't even started on Hillary. Every time he's been attacked or went on attack he has decimated his opponent - Bush, Graham, McCain, Perry, Romney, Rubio, the Pope, Staged Protests, Unfavorable Audiences at Debates, etc. Events like Belgium, San Bernadino, and Paris strengthen Trump (not Hillary).... Economic collapse if it occurs in the next 8 months favors Trump (not Hillary). There are a lot of factors at play still.. but yes, it would be nice to see Trump close the gap between he and hillary now but its waaaaaaay to early to panic. Back to the basketball game... I hope to hell Miami is not in the locker room right now saying OMG THERE'S NO WAY WE CAN WIN THIS GAME... HAVE YOU SEEN THE VEGAS ODDS?!?!? I know Trump won't be saying that about his odds... because he's a winner. America needs a winner!!!!

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/24/2016 12:34:00 PM (view original):
I heard, or read, that in the 10 contested conventions, the leader was only nominated 3 times. I don't know if that applied to all parties or just the Repubs but, either way, it's not unheard of for the leader to been given a gift basket and sent home. In fact, it's more likely than not.

What say ye, moy?

It won't be contested. Ask me again in June or July.

Posted by moy23 on 3/24/2016 12:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/24/2016 12:34:00 PM (view original):
I heard, or read, that in the 10 contested conventions, the leader was only nominated 3 times. I don't know if that applied to all parties or just the Repubs but, either way, it's not unheard of for the leader to been given a gift basket and sent home. In fact, it's more likely than not.

What say ye, moy?

It won't be contested. Ask me again in June or July.

The chances of him having 1237 are low. So it probably will be contested.

Posted by moy23 on 3/24/2016 12:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/24/2016 12:34:00 PM (view original):
I heard, or read, that in the 10 contested conventions, the leader was only nominated 3 times. I don't know if that applied to all parties or just the Repubs but, either way, it's not unheard of for the leader to been given a gift basket and sent home. In fact, it's more likely than not.

What say ye, moy?

It won't be contested. Ask me again in June or July.

I think the math says otherwise. Trump still need 498 and I believe there are something like 930 still available. Which means he has to get about 54% of them. How do you expect that to happen?

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/24/2016 12:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 3/24/2016 12:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/24/2016 12:34:00 PM (view original):
I heard, or read, that in the 10 contested conventions, the leader was only nominated 3 times. I don't know if that applied to all parties or just the Repubs but, either way, it's not unheard of for the leader to been given a gift basket and sent home. In fact, it's more likely than not.

What say ye, moy?

It won't be contested. Ask me again in June or July.

I think the math says otherwise. Trump still need 498 and I believe there are something like 930 still available. Which means he has to get about 54% of them. How do you expect that to happen?

95 in NY
120 in CA
20 in ND
51 in NJ
30 in WI
51 in IN

Probably about 15-20 states left including PA, RI, VT, OR, WA, SD, etc.... He'd have to get about 120 delegates out of them. He's currently 96% to his target but his poll #s are going up nationally which should carry some weight moving forward

Posted by bad_luck on 3/24/2016 12:41:00 PM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 3/24/2016 12:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/24/2016 12:34:00 PM (view original):
I heard, or read, that in the 10 contested conventions, the leader was only nominated 3 times. I don't know if that applied to all parties or just the Repubs but, either way, it's not unheard of for the leader to been given a gift basket and sent home. In fact, it's more likely than not.

What say ye, moy?

It won't be contested. Ask me again in June or July.

The chances of him having 1237 are low. So it probably will be contested.

Bettors odds are 46% that the convention IS contested. Also the odds of Trump winning the nomination one way or another are at 80% at this point in time. Anything can happen, but my guess is it will be close, and if its close Trump will get the nod.

Posted by moy23 on 3/24/2016 1:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/24/2016 12:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 3/24/2016 12:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/24/2016 12:34:00 PM (view original):
I heard, or read, that in the 10 contested conventions, the leader was only nominated 3 times. I don't know if that applied to all parties or just the Repubs but, either way, it's not unheard of for the leader to been given a gift basket and sent home. In fact, it's more likely than not.

What say ye, moy?

It won't be contested. Ask me again in June or July.

I think the math says otherwise. Trump still need 498 and I believe there are something like 930 still available. Which means he has to get about 54% of them. How do you expect that to happen?

95 in NY
120 in CA
20 in ND
51 in NJ
30 in WI
51 in IN

Probably about 15-20 states left including PA, RI, VT, OR, WA, SD, etc.... He'd have to get about 120 delegates out of them. He's currently 96% to his target but his poll #s are going up nationally which should carry some weight moving forward

Most of those states aren't winner take all. He isn't going to get 120 in CA or 95 in NY.

Trump again proves himself to be a classless piece of crap. If this country elects him to live in the soon to be named "Trump House" it will deserve the s##t storm that follows.

Posted by moy23 on 3/24/2016 1:01:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/24/2016 12:51:00 PM (view original):

Posted by moy23 on 3/24/2016 12:37:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 3/24/2016 12:34:00 PM (view original):
I heard, or read, that in the 10 contested conventions, the leader was only nominated 3 times. I don't know if that applied to all parties or just the Repubs but, either way, it's not unheard of for the leader to been given a gift basket and sent home. In fact, it's more likely than not.

What say ye, moy?

It won't be contested. Ask me again in June or July.

I think the math says otherwise. Trump still need 498 and I believe there are something like 930 still available. Which means he has to get about 54% of them. How do you expect that to happen?

95 in NY
120 in CA
20 in ND
51 in NJ
30 in WI
51 in IN

Probably about 15-20 states left including PA, RI, VT, OR, WA, SD, etc.... He'd have to get about 120 delegates out of them. He's currently 96% to his target but his poll #s are going up nationally which should carry some weight moving forward

Are any of the states listed "winner take all"? I know the bigs ones aren't.