TJ, that latter part, about high range defenders, is the case because the range of defenders has already been calculated into whether it is a hit or an out, which comes before deciding if it is a strikeout, a + play etc. if I understand this correctly.
Is that right ?
So, the defensive ratings, in a sense, are incorporated into the pitcher-batter matchup in determining the hit-out outcome in the first place, and only later is a strikeout determined, or a + play. In a sense, a K is treated by the SIM as though it were a + play on the part of the pitcher.
I don't like to disagree with booger on anything serious here as he is usually right about these things (and wrong about everything else, first of all his own self-estimation - see "bomb, not the..." - but I digress), but if this is true, then the reason that high K pitchers reduce + plays is that they share in the total + plays possible with the K being their version of it, Even if 27 plus plays were possible in a game (see contrarian23's good reminder to us of the limits of the horizon event), if 10 Ks are recorded we are now down to a max of 17 + plays in the field.
Have I got this right ?
7/26/2012 8:25 AM (edited)