Quote: Originally Posted By jakotay on 2/20/2010

Quote: Originally posted by superbeast on 2/20/2010 I didn't say a word about Paul until this thread where superbeast got the response he was looking for.......hehe!

Explain this one. Referring to yourself in the third person or forgot to logout and back in as someone else? Clown


He seems to have been referencing my post and laughing about it because I seem to be right in this instance...not hard to follow.

Quote: Originally Posted By jakotay on 2/20/2010
Trevor- Paul did not recruit me or anyone else from the site. Just because you don't care for his output as a statistician does not mean everyone else should feel the same. I would just like to see full ownership of the predictions that are made, not just the ones that were "right"...is that so much to ask? But more importantly knowing Paul as an individual.... is why I keep in touch with him. There's a reason for this just like there is a reason I have not met you for a couple of drinks or lunch. I do not want to sit there and be corrected all night or told my particular views are dead wrong because they do not align with your narrow mindedness. I can see where you would say something like this, but I assure you that our meeting wouldn't at all be like this. You'd be surprised, I'm rather tame in person...laid back and easy going. The offer is always standing fwiw. Paul's not like that and its a good match for me to converse with him about sports, life, politics or whatever. I could be dead wrong and we'd get along fine but as of this moment I do not need 50,000 runs, 10,000 runs or even 5 runs to know what the odds are. And I am just as wrong in making that assumption as you are for calling BS. How am I wrong for wanting him to own up to Cavs v. Blazers? Because he doesn't want to address it/own it, its over? How open-minded.

As for 10k vs. 50k.... The more you do a simulation the more one of two things happen- a clear cut divide appears between two entities or a tightening of sorts that get you closer to 50-50. I think 100 is fine for a football matchup since they only play 16 games a season and never more than 3 against a single opponent in said season. Baseball and Hoops (or hockey I guess) maybe 500 is enough to see trending. But you don't think of it that way. If I have numbers to choose from in a lottery and in 50,000 runs the number 5 comes up 1000 times then I'd play the 5 in my number set (Assumes highest number captured in the 50k run). If it came up 2 times in 100 I would not be so fond of the number even though its the same %. People who get into this stuff look at it like that. People who do not understand it are either indifferent or calling BS. I have no problem with calling BS- as long as the BS that gets spun is better. I have yet to see you out perform the predictions. My non-predictive CFB rankings outpredicted WIS' bowl simulations by 3 games, so that's been done...and its quite sad on WIS' end if you ask me. Not trying to bring this up again, but that's the precise reason I didn't apply for the Content Manager position here (not that I would have got it) but if what I'm doing now is better than what my prospective company is doing, then why bother? Why sell myself out like that? When he gets his next pick set up lets post his picks here. And you can post yours. And let me know so I can copy/quote both picks. (Not an assumption fo potential cheating... just making it idiot proof). I'm more than willing to take on Paul head on in a situation like this...hell I called him out on the Matthew Stafford thing, and he backed down...again, quite sad if you ask me. If the proper publicity follows this kind of encounter, I'm down.

No one predicts at 100% but I'd follow along anyone who does it well (regardless of personality). I don't put much stock in predictions to begin with, that's why I do retrodictive rankings...thus if predictions are more often way off than spot on, I'm going to harp on the system/format. I sent an email to the new CM about the WIS "right" claims as well, so it isn't just a Paul thing per se, but it is/was his baby, whether he'll own it or not. I remember once he had the nerve to say that he had nothing to do with the NBA predictions, ltm.

Just to clarify- I was referring to Monkee when I said I wish he still had a voice here. Far as I know Paul has no restrictions to speak here. Ahhhh, my apologies.

The project I did with Paul was relating to my efforts to find work. Nothing to do with sports, simulations, WIS, work agreements/non competes or anything else in that regard. But since I did not state that upfront (and still do not think I should have to) you assume the worse and paint a picture only the ignorant can see. Would he have met you if not for this site?

I see your passion for sports and predictions I largely don't like/do predictions, just clarifying. Its great you have a voice here. But its only a whisper inn the grand scheme of things. For right now, yes, you're correct. But everything starts somewhere and maybe you'll find it one day. Differences of opinion(s) firmly in place I still do not wish for (your) failure. I just wish you could turn that passion into something constructive or useful. (Meaning its a good thing to have drive for something. But being driven to a small website that is virtually unknown vs. something much more prominent seems like a wasted effort. Bottom line.... who cares? Count me out when my heart stops. Are you emailing or posting about everyone else who has a poor prediction record in sporting events? Why not? A rose by any other name is still a rose. Or a grudge. Potato po-tah-toe. Call it what you like, things are the way they are with Paul and me because of past experience. Bottom line is, if he would have owned up to and backed all of his predictions, I would probably have respect for him. The fact that he lauds the good and buries the bad, makes excuses, wouldn't back his Matt Stafford claim that I directly called him out on, and claims to not have had anything to do with regarding certain predictions, gives him a very low integrity/class in my eyes, not that it matters or he cares, but like it or not, there was no closure concerning his predictions thus every time his name comes up around me, I'll have the same things to say. I'm not looking for any kind of special treatment, all I want him or anyone to do is to man up and be accountable for EVERYTHING that you say or do, period. I expect people to expect the same out of me.

Quote: Originally Posted By jakotay on 2/20/2010Why open with "I didn't say a word about Paul" then? That is what I said in my post, meaning that I wouldn't have said anything about Paul and his venture because I wouldn't have known about it unless superbeast brought it up. He wanted to see colonels19 go ape and he got his wish...pleasing the masses as always.Did someone say he said something about Paul? Or is someone with an ax to grind trying to make much ado about nuthin

Quote: Originally Posted By jakotay on 2/20/2010got it. As for the other... still potato po-tah-toe. Not going to run it into the ground. No one touted the predictions as 100% accurate. Like you said, no man/machine is going to predict at 100% accuracy, I'll give you that all day and twice on Sunday. What I take exception with (which is what I emailed the same thing to the new CM Ryan Fowler) is how they present their information...they're misleading (or WISleading as I refer to it) their audience to think that their "predictalator" is more accurate than it really is/has been, and that's something I personally can't stand. I "predict/sim" the Home Run Derby before it happens and if I'm wrong, especially way off...I'll poke at myself...say something like, "Well I'm glad that Dan Uggla won the HRD like I simmed....oops...looks like we'll have to try again this year lol". You can be wrong and still be cheeky and lovable really, but on WIS/Paul's end, I've always gotten this staunchly arrogant vibe, like they're somehow on a higher plane than everyone else. Tell the truth...don't give me 40% of what happened and call it "truth" Its what a machine put out. Throw darts, programming, guessing.... whatever. Just not worth discussing further. One last thing, as far as you and other users getting chummy with the tinman...isn't that a conflict of interests and against WIS protocol? I know you said that sports/WIS were never discussed, but what privies you/some people to converse with admins in a private manner while the rest of us aren't supposed to? Just throwing that out there.