I think the answer is 5, but I'm not sure.

Quote: Originally Posted By footballmm11 on 1/27/2010"If I have a pitcher who's 3-0 against a good team, it stands to reason (in real life) that he's got their number and should be the best guy to start against them, even if he's not your best pitcher. Same with hitters...if I have a .250 RL hitter that's hitting .450 against a certain team, that should count for something the next time he plays that team. Albert Pujols is a great hitter, but if he's hitting .230 one year come June, he's obviously having a down year. Could he bust out of it at any moment? Sure, but until he does, he's just a .230 hitter. I think the SIM should take seasonal progression into account."

This does not stand to reason. First of all the sample sizes are waaaay to small. But forget about that, answer this: How about if you have a pitcher who is 3-0 against some team, 2-1 in night games, 1-2 in June, and 0-3 on grass. If you're playing a night game on Grass in June against that team, then what do you expect him to do

So you're implying the month and time of day affect a pitcher as much as/more than the hitters he's facing? Because that just makes you look like an idiot.

But to answer your question...I expect him to beat that team, as he has done in three previous starts already, especially since it's only June, which likely means he's won ALL of his previous starts against that team to date.

Quote: Originally Posted By footballmm11 on 1/27/2010"If I have a pitcher who's 3-0 against a good team, it stands to reason (in real life) that he's got their number and should be the best guy to start against them, even if he's not your best pitcher. Same with hitters...if I have a .250 RL hitter that's hitting .450 against a certain team, that should count for something the next time he plays that team. Albert Pujols is a great hitter, but if he's hitting .230 one year come June, he's obviously having a down year. Could he bust out of it at any moment? Sure, but until he does, he's just a .230 hitter. I think the SIM should take seasonal progression into account."

This does not stand to reason. First of all the sample sizes are waaaay to small. But forget about that, answer this: How about if you have a pitcher who is 3-0 against some team, 2-1 in night games, 1-2 in June, and 0-3 on grass. If you're playing a night game on Grass in June against that team, then what do you expect him to do

So you're implying the month and time of day affect a pitcher as much as/more than the hitters he's facing? Because that just makes you look like an idiot.

But to answer your question...I expect him to beat that team, as he has done in three previous starts already, especially since it's only June, which likely means he's won ALL of his previous starts against that team to date.

Seriously? Really? A guy was good for three starts so he should be adjusted so he performs better going forward? A guy is hot for a month, so he should get a boost? Flukes should then *become* real? Why am I phrasing these as questions? Haven't you already stated that you think this way, then called someone else an idiot?

I guess I shouldn't argue. It'd be cool to see Johnny Vander Meer throw fourteen no-hitters in a season.

On a somewhat related note, I'd like to thank Boogerlips for inspiring me. Threads like this should just be marked "Monkeyface" early on so we know what we're getting into. Now I'd better stop before I start condescending to myself, even.

If WIS ever builds "streakiness" into the algorithm, I'm outta here. Pure old regular ordinary "random variation" is more than enough to cause a full range of outcomes. Trying to simulate hot/cold streaks by introducing momentum will lead to incredibly distorted results, and be very unrealistic.

Hypothetical scenario for discussion:

You have these two players on your team with these RL # stats:

Player A - .300/.375/.500
Player B - .250/.300/.350

But halfway through the season after a comparable amount of PA, their sim stats are:

Player A - .265/.320/.390
Player B - .310/.370/.450

We all know that technically player A is still the better player, even though he's not showing it now. How many people would still switch out and make Player B the starter?

I'll confess I've done that a few times. It adds a little feel of realism to insert the player that appears to be on a hot streak, even though I know it's an illusion. It's paid off at least once I can remember.

Realism is an illusion

mattedesa...i would always keep Player A in WIS.

player A is from 1998 while player B is from 1968. problem solved.

mattedesa... sticking with Player A is usually the best idea.

Except, sometimes this happens (95M league)...

RL
Player A: .343/.379/.504
Player B: .293/.381/.482

Final SIM numbers
Player A: .252/.298/.354
Player B: .272/.337/.425

Both players supposedly "normalized well".