Posted by dBKC on 4/16/2025 10:45:00 PM (view original):

Posted by savoybg on 4/16/2025 10:30:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dBKC on 4/16/2025 10:22:00 PM (view original):

Posted by savoybg on 4/16/2025 10:14:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dBKC on 4/16/2025 10:07:00 PM (view original):
Bradley Beal has 6.3 WS the past two season on Phoenix while being literally a NEGATIVE asset. The Suns would kill to trade him for nothing.

When a player plays, you are using a roster spot and part of your salary cap on them. And they are using minutes that could go to another player. You aren’t factoring in any of that. They need to be BETTER than a replacement, or else you’re just rewarding them for being on the floor when someone else better could be in their spot.

No ****. Who is worse than replacement level that I said was good?

Thaddeous Young is well above replacement level.

Thad Young was quite literally a replacement level player for most of his career.

Fine, how does your stat compare Alec Burks and Anthony Edwards?

I gave the formula 4 times in this thread. Go figure out Burks and Edwards yourself.

47.2 vs 44.1

Real cool stat you got here. Thumbs up.

It's not a stat. It's a metric.

I think everyone owes Savoy an apology. He is a self-stated genius and a scientist, who is just trying to find meaning in life through a simple formula. Let's ignore that he probably tested his IQ at Trump University and practices the science of blog annoyance and that he based his entirely "new" formula on a flawed formula and only added a random wrinkle. I don't want to see him kicked out of his mom's house or realize that anyone he may know in his neighborhood won't do anything to help him. Let's just pretend he's figured it all out and invite him into leagues so he can finish in last.

Great work Savoy. All your efforts were worth it. I suggest you write a book with bold red letters.

By the way, you guys who were knocking Thaddeus Young. My system ranks him among the 60 most valuable PF's of all time. He's just a few points below making the all time rankings at PF. That's NOT a replacement level player.

POWER FORWARD - 53
1. Mailman - 193.64
2. Nowitzki - 180.29
3. Garnett - 168.03
4. Barkley - 163.89
5. Schayes - 139.84
6. Pettit - 138.52
7. Pau Gasol - 131.69
8. McHale - 115.23
9. Hayes - 114.96
10. Greek Freak - 114.40
11. Bailey Howell - 113.24
12. Aldridge - 111.63
13. Nance - 109.67
14. Horace Grant - 109.33
15. Brand - 107.42
16. Buck Williams - 105.30
17. Stoudemire - 103.71
18. Jerry Lucas - 101.26
19. Rasheed Wallace - 99.37
20. Thorpe - 98.90
21. Shawn Kemp - 98.36
22. Kevin Love - 97.13
23. Bobby Jones - 94.45
24. Blake Griffin - 94.29
25. Cummings - 93.38
26. AC Green - 93.38
27. Webber - 92.52
28. Anthony Mason - 92.40
29. Mikkelsen - 92.23
30. Rodman - 89.97
31. Millsap - 89.92
32. Jamison - 88.68
33. David West - 87.76
34. PJ Brown - 87.12
35. Carlos Boozer - 86.85
36. George McGinnis - 86.63
37. Cliff Robinson - 86.02
38. Spencer Haywood - 85.28
39. Oakley - 85.14
40. Harry Gallatin - 85.08
41. Zach Randolph - 84.62
42. Odom - 84.29
43. Paul Silas - 83.07
44. Dale Davis - 82.58
45. Rudy T - 80.23
46. David Lee - 80.18
47. Kevin Willis - 79.40
48. Tom Chambers - 79.29
49. Larry Johnson - 77.73
50. Shareef Abdur-Rahim - 77.30
51. Happy Hairston - 76.96
52. Hot Rod Williams - 75.40
53. Maurice Lucas - 75.00
==========================
Thaddeus Young - 71.71

Posted by BenJoker on 4/17/2025 8:34:00 PM (view original):
I think everyone owes Savoy an apology. He is a self-stated genius and a scientist, who is just trying to find meaning in life through a simple formula. Let's ignore that he probably tested his IQ at Trump University and practices the science of blog annoyance and that he based his entirely "new" formula on a flawed formula and only added a random wrinkle. I don't want to see him kicked out of his mom's house or realize that anyone he may know in his neighborhood won't do anything to help him. Let's just pretend he's figured it all out and invite him into leagues so he can finish in last.

Great work Savoy. All your efforts were worth it. I suggest you write a book with bold red letters.

Anytime you want to point out those supposed "flaws" in the win shares formula I'm ready.

It's interesting that those supposed flaws always seem to underrate the players you guys see as better and overrate the guys that you see as worse. It's like they purposely made the win share formula to underrate Bird, Kobe, Isiah, Magic, Russell and Olajuwon and to overrate Malone, Stockton, CP3, Wilt, Dirk, and The Admiral.

Re: Thad Young and “replacement player”

A) You saying that he’s ranked highly in your formula doesn’t prove anything because your formula is bad.

B) My point about “replacement player” is that a player is rewarded for being bad in your formula. Bradley Beal’s value went UP in your formula this year. But he was a negative value player this year. You’re not controlling for the mean. You’re rewarding a player for being on the court doing nothing. That’s what I meant when I said you’re not looking for if a player is BETTER than a replacement player.

C) Do you really think in your heart of hearts that Thaddeus Young is the SIXTIETH best PF of all time? This doesn’t show you that maybe your formula is flawed?

For everyone who said poop tastes bad, I have it ranked as the 17th best food of all time. Take that.

A big issue I have with it is that you treat win shares from 1972 in the ABA the same way you treat win shares from 2022 in the NBA.

Posted by BenJoker on 4/17/2025 8:34:00 PM (view original):
I think everyone owes Savoy an apology. He is a self-stated genius and a scientist, who is just trying to find meaning in life through a simple formula. Let's ignore that he probably tested his IQ at Trump University and practices the science of blog annoyance and that he based his entirely "new" formula on a flawed formula and only added a random wrinkle. I don't want to see him kicked out of his mom's house or realize that anyone he may know in his neighborhood won't do anything to help him. Let's just pretend he's figured it all out and invite him into leagues so he can finish in last.

Great work Savoy. All your efforts were worth it. I suggest you write a book with bold red letters.

oh ben, I think I had this thing put to bed but then you.... {sigh...}

Posted by dBKC on 4/17/2025 9:04:00 PM (view original):
For everyone who said poop tastes bad, I have it ranked as the 17th best food of all time. Take that.

no!!!

Posted by copernicus on 4/17/2025 9:33:00 PM (view original):

Posted by dBKC on 4/17/2025 9:04:00 PM (view original):
For everyone who said poop tastes bad, I have it ranked as the 17th best food of all time. Take that.

no!!!

My metric proved it. You guys said poop is bad, but my metric says it’s good, so it’s good.

Posted by dBKC on 4/17/2025 9:00:00 PM (view original):
Re: Thad Young and “replacement player”

A) You saying that he’s ranked highly in your formula doesn’t prove anything because your formula is bad.

B) My point about “replacement player” is that a player is rewarded for being bad in your formula. Bradley Beal’s value went UP in your formula this year. But he was a negative value player this year. You’re not controlling for the mean. You’re rewarding a player for being on the court doing nothing. That’s what I meant when I said you’re not looking for if a player is BETTER than a replacement player.

C) Do you really think in your heart of hearts that Thaddeus Young is the SIXTIETH best PF of all time? This doesn’t show you that maybe your formula is flawed?

Any time you want to go through the win shares formula and point out the flaws, I'm here. If your only evidence is that YOU don't agree with what the metric concludes, then you're just pulling things out of your ***.

Your "heart of hearts" thing shows that you have no clue as to what the win shares formula is. You are only basing your criticism of the metric on your emotional reaction to the results. You are NOT a scientist like me.

Bradley Beal. I haven't looked at any player's numbers for the 24-25 season yet. I can't determine a player's rating for the season until the season is over, including the playoffs if he plays then. But let's see where he is at right now. At this point his career rating would go up by .034. So if he was at 50.04 for his career he would move up to 50.07. Yes, that's quite a boost he'll get for this season.

If you were a scientist like me you would realize that a player can go slightly up for a season and still have that be a terrible season. Depending upon the system, you may not have to have a negative number to indicate a bad season or year. If a league average player this season will have his career rating go up by 1.50, then going up by only .03 hurts his career standing as compared to most other current players whose career rating went up by a lot more.

It's like the difference between WAR and WAA in baseball. You can have a bad year in baseball and be below league average, but have your career WAR go up a bit. But with WAA if you are even a kunt hair below league average your WAA will be a negative.

If I have made an average of $2M a year for the 20 years I have been a working adult, and my lifetime earnings are at $40M now it would be a terrible year for me if I only made $42K for a year, but my lifetime earnings would still go up, right?

It's not like an NBA Team is able to snap their fingers and provide a league average player to replace Beal with. They don't have the luxury of knowing ahead of time how good a player will be like we do here with the sim.

BTW, there are guys every season who have negative win shares for the season. Beale's team alone had 4 of them. Lee, Washington Jr., Bridges and Micic. There were only 8 other players on the Suns who played better than Beale did this year. He is 9th on the team in WS/48. And 2 of the guys who played better than him only played a few hundred minutes all season. Beale played twice as well as Ryan Dunn, who has played 1410 minutes already.

Posted by Midge on 4/17/2025 9:27:00 PM (view original):
A big issue I have with it is that you treat win shares from 1972 in the ABA the same way you treat win shares from 2022 in the NBA.

No I don't. I've mentioned at least 3 times already in this thread that I reduce the ABA numbers some in the formula. Every player gets their ABA seasons reduced by between 8% and 15% depending upon their playing time and their win shares total for that season. So a guy with 10.0 win shares might only get credit for 9.0 win shares when I calculate his rating.

By the way, this sim gives ABA seasons the same value as NBA seasons.

come on savoy find your higher self! don't take the bait!

Posted by copernicus on 4/17/2025 9:45:00 PM (view original):
come on savoy find your higher self! don't take the bait!

That's not how I roll, nic.

I can see that now, knock yourself out