Possession Penalty, Where is it? Topic

ashamael
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even tho this information is better posted elsewhere, the sheer incompetency of this thread needs to remain alive.
8/15/2012 8:33 PM
ashamael
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and Jesus... this was more than 4 years ago.
8/15/2012 9:04 PM
bistiza
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I was reading the responses at  the beginning of this thread and thought: Wow, I haven't seen any of these guys recently, they used to be big into the Sim League Basketball. I remember being in leagues with many of them, then I stopped playing WIS since 2008 to this year and now I'm back and many of them are gone. I miss the old days in some ways, but I cherish the present too.

Bah, now I"m getting all nostalgic and sentimental.
8/16/2012 3:53 PM
ashamael
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this thread needs something.  oh yeah.  to remain living.
9/28/2013 1:42 AM
smokey57
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This formula may help you approximate your "player over-possession penalty" point. I am currently using and observing this approximation in the ODL and will report back my observations and any data I collect.
 
League ODL XLIV - Team: 100% DynaMo' Humm

Using this formula my top 8 players @ uptempo look like this wrt allowed possessons:

[{FGA + (.44xFTA) + TO's} x 1.12** / tmins] x (tmins/82) = allowed player possessions per game (âpp/g)

Player                âpp/m          âpp/g         team use        RL use     use tier  tier pts
Lanier                 0.70           23.8            18.4               24.0                   3rd         4
English              0.88           31.7             24.5               28.9                   2nd        6
Robertson         0.58           20.3            15.7                20.9                   4th         2
Stockton             0.47          16.4             12.7               18.9                    4th         2
G. Johnson        0.61           18.9            14.6               20.0                    4th         2 (1st 5 = 16pts)
McMillan             0.32             7.4               5.7               12.4                    6th       0.5
GT Johnson      0.39             7.9               6.1                13.2                   6th       0.5
Clark                   0.50             2.8               2.2                 20.7                  4th         2 (1st 8 = 19pts)

For this team the 'combined allowed player possessions' per game @ uptempo (câpp) = 129.2 câpp

Notes

  • The 1st 8 players account for 97% câpp. Full team câpp = 132.4 câpp
  • 1.12** represents the 10% uptempo bonus + the 2% mins bonus, for halfcourt use 1.02 and for slowdown use 0.92 as factors.
  • team use =  [(âpp/g) / câpp] X 100     
9/30/2013 5:54 PM (edited)
ashamael
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I haven't spent much time looking at your formula, but I'm interested to see what results you yield.
9/30/2013 3:07 AM
smokey57
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Ash, think about this with me..if this equation needs to be updated on a game by game basis (min by min on sim), as you get toward the end of the season and the remaining min's/g & FGA become limiting & drop away...does the âpp for each player drop also, thereby lowering the penalty limit wrt câpp. This might explain the leaders all collapsing to varing degrees in the ODL, where min's are limiting factor at the end of the season. The whole team is probably in over-possession penalty for 48 min's by 78 games in...lol.
9/30/2013 3:47 PM (edited)
ashamael
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the possession penalty is purely on a game-by-game basis
9/30/2013 4:01 PM
ncmusician_7
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smokey, u aren't "allowed" more possessions because u run uptempo.
9/30/2013 4:20 PM
smokey57
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In the thread I gleen this from, seble said poss/usage was adjusted wrt tempo. That thread was from '08', shortly after the revision, and the subject was player over-poss penalty. The 1st question was; is there a popp?.. seble - yes. 2nd question; at what point does it occur? Seble's answer to this Q is the key, he said.."I can't give you a number, but if you use your intuition you should be able to figure it out". Then he said we currently use,  FTA + (.44XFTA) + TO = poss/usage.  I interpet this to mean - allowed poss for a given player usage. He also mention that it was 1) adjusted for tempo and 2) was variable..the further over the limit , the more severe the penaly gets. As would be expected the penalty is express as lower FG% and higher TOV. I'll go get the link..ash gave it to us in the ODL league forum recently.
9/30/2013 6:17 PM
smokey57
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Crap, it's gone! Ash, you posted 4 links to old forum threads in the ODL XLIV league forum, could you post the last one here. That where this came from..thx. I think it may be important and like an idiot I lost it. IMO, seble was drunk, no way would he give this up today.
9/30/2013 6:26 PM
smokey57
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Posted by seble on 7/28/2008 3:15:00 PM (view original):
The two penalties are based on slightly different ideas. The team penalty is basically asking "Does this lineup have the ability to execute an offense at a reasonable level of efficiency?". So this penalty could kick in at any point of any game depending on the lineup.

On the other hand, the individual penalty is asking "Is the team asking this player to do more than he did in real life?". This penalty is lessened early in the game to allow for natural randomness causing a player to overpossess at the beginning. It also acts as a safeguard in case we ever implement some way of letting coaches adjust individual possession rates.

Never mind Ash I found the thread..we're in it. If one reads this thread and disregards the post wrt the code bug, then extract what seble was trying to tell us, he clearly as possible explained popp & low team usage penalty. This equaltion is there mostly to remind us what seble had said way back when...poss/usage.  I believe the formula to be a reasonable approximation of what was said and my intuition agree's. lol

9/30/2013 6:55 PM
smokey57
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Posted by seble on 7/26/2008 4:07:00 PM (view original):
There are two different penalties. There is an individual player penalty, which kicks in if they've exceeded a value that is a combination of their individual possessions per 82 games and their possessions per minute.

The other penalty comes into play if you don't have enough Usage% on the court at a particular time. We basically assign points to each of the 5 players based on their Usage%, and if the sum is under a certain level then a penalty applies based on how far under you are. So you could avoid the penalty by having one or two high volume guys with some role players, or by having a balance of middle volume guys.
This is after the last revision '08', so I assume in effect currently.
9/30/2013 7:26 PM
smokey57
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Posted by seble on 7/27/2008 1:27:00 PM (view original):
We now use FGA+(0.44*FTA)+TO to calculate possessions/usage.

the base formula

9/30/2013 7:34 PM
ashamael
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adjusted for tempo is the normalization from paces in different eras, not what the sim does depending on what tempo you run.  From the oh-so-inaccurate sim database:

#124 Coaching Options Q. What are the advantages up-tempo/half court/slow down styles of play?
  A. On offense, the different styles have the following effects:
  • Halfcourt - no adjustments
  • Uptempo - shorter possessions, more easy shots, more turnovers
  • Slow Down - longer possessions, tougher shots, fewer turnovers
On defense, the different styles have the following effects:
  • Halfcourt - no adjustments
  • Press - more turnovers/steals, more fouls, gives up more easy shots

Uptempo means more possessions which means a) more opportunities for turnovers & b) more opportunities for players to hit the possession penalty.
There is an individual player penalty, which kicks in if they've exceeded a value that is a combination of their individual possessions per 82 games and their possessions per minute.

Guess what stat we have that is literally a combination of their individual possessions & possessions per minute?

I plan on putting some analysis of my recent usage experiments in the other thread this evening.  Stay tuned.
9/30/2013 8:03 PM
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