Pitcher Value: Deadball vs Modern - TWISL Results Topic

As many may may have seen with the recent discussions on dynamic pricing, the topic of value of deadball and modern pitchers, especially as it relates to defense has been frequently argued and cited. We just completed a running of a TWISL (Testing WIS League) for this purpose. Here is how the league was setup:

GOALS: Here are the things I'd like this league to be able to contribute to:
  • Increase our understanding of pitcher value - specifically as defense effects overall performance: but more importantly we will look at stats like RA/9 instead of ERA, and we'll calculate OAV and WHIP with errors counting as hits to get a true feel for how teams are impacted since the effect of errors doesn't show up in the traditional pitching stats (ERA/OAV/WHIP).
  • How many more errors will a team of deadball pitchers allow over a team of modern pitchers?
  • What effect will the increase of errors (if any) have on team performance?
  • How big of an advantage (if any) do teams with deadball pitchers have over teams with modern pitchers?
  • Have fun!
Here's how it will play out:
24 teams (12 owners with 2 teams each):
Salary: $80 million
AAA: No
WW: No
Clones: Allowed
Trades: No
DH: No


TEAM COMPOSITION:
Every owner submits two teams.

Offense: Both teams must share the same offense. You can draft whatever hitters you want, but both your teams must have identical offenses. At least 1,000 PA must have a HR/100# of 5 or greater (to account for and see/incorporate the value deadball pitchers provide in HR suppression).

Pitching: One of your two teams can only draft pitchers from 1888-1919 and the other can only draft pitchers from 1985-2016 (to keep people from taking advantage of 2017-2020 not using dynamic pricing and upsetting the value test. Plus that leaves 31 seasons of pitching options for both rosters).

BALLPARK: Any ballpark may be used, but both teams must use the same ballpark.

ALIGNMENT: There will be two different "groups" for the test. Group A (Deadball Pitchers) and Group B (Modern Pitchers), 12 teams each. Each league will have 6 of each group, each division will have 2 of each group. Each owner will have 1 team in each league. Alignment will be random and adjusted, if necessary, to meet the conditions set above.
3/30/2021 10:28 AM
First, here are the league-average traditional stats:
Deadball ERA 4.58 Modern ERA 4.76
Deadball OAV 0.262 Modern OAV 0.261
Deadball WHIP 1.51 Modern WHIP 1.46
Deadball HR 86 Modern HR 138
Deadball HR/9 0.53 Modern HR/9 0.86

From this it would appear the deadball pitchers had a slight value advantage. For the same $ spent on pitching staffs, the deadball pitchers had a lower ERA same OAV and allowed less HR. Once we add in the effect of errors, though, we have the following:
Deadball E 227 Modern E 163
Deadball FLD% 0.965 Modern FLD% 0.974
Deadball RA/9 5.61 Modern RA/9 5.55
Deadball OAV+E 0.299 Modern OAV+E 0.288
Deadball WHIP+E 1.67 Modern WHIP+E 1.57

This result led to the following:
Deadball W 81.42 Modern W 80.67
Deadball W% 0.502 Modern W% 0.498

I posted this in the league as well: "100+ win teams: 2 modern, 2 deadball. 90-99 win teams: 4 modern, 4 deadball."

Now, there were four teams that dealt with fatigue, two that had severe fatigue and two that had moderate fatigue. As luck would have it, both groups were split deadball/modern and AL/NL, so the overall effect on the league stats was minimal, if it any impact at all in terms of shifting this. The one aside on that is that of the two severely fatigued teams, the modern team won 9 less games than the deadball version (16 wins and 27 wins). If you balanced out just those severely fatigued teams to 21 each, then the W-L totals shift to:
Deadball W 80.58 Modern W 81.42
Deadball W% 0.497 Modern W% 0.502

Showing how really close this was. Essentially, I think this makes it very clear, there is no value difference between deadball or modern pitchers once you account for errors and XBH/HR rates. The run allowance and W/L records the various pitching eras provide for the price are essentially identical.

The base salary seems to really account for these variances exceptionally well in terms of pricing actual sim value.

For myself, I prefer modern pitchers, as I believe it is easier to build offense/defense/ballpark around them as you have multiple ways to get their full value, where with deadball pitchers, to get full value, you are limited to a very specific group of defenders which limits your offense/defense/ballpark options.
3/30/2021 9:09 PM (edited)
Here is the data dump for the full league Pitching+Defense Stats:
Owner Team G CG SHO W L SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO OAV WHIP ERA PO A E DP FPCT W% OAV+E WHIP+E RA/9 HR/9 TEAM TYPE
Chargingryno TWISL: Deadball Fielding Test 162 2 0 89 73 32 42 1,439.00 1787 942 761 111 391 378 0.297 1.51 4.76 4317 1925 237 446 0.963 0.549 0.319 1.68 5.89 0.69 Deadball
Contrarian23 TWISL Old 163 1 1 91 72 41 57 1,450.67 1591 660 599 50 364 389 0.277 1.35 3.72 4352 1964 84 439 0.987 0.558 0.278 1.41 4.09 0.31 Deadball
skinndogg TWISL DOGGS DEADBALLERS ARE ALL DEAD 162 0 0 75 87 41 52 1,455.33 1561 720 611 34 392 450 0.269 1.34 3.78 4366 1903 153 358 0.976 0.463 0.282 1.45 4.45 0.21 Deadball
jfranco77 TWISL Deadballers 162 3 0 93 69 35 49 1,454.00 1587 830 636 83 566 454 0.270 1.48 3.94 4362 1808 243 441 0.962 0.574 0.296 1.65 5.14 0.51 Deadball
Doctorkz Twisl 1888-1919 Arms 162 0 0 100 62 41 58 1,450.67 1482 689 591 68 416 445 0.257 1.31 3.67 4352 1881 188 376 0.971 0.617 0.277 1.44 4.27 0.42 Deadball
just4me TWISL - Deadball Pitchers 162 11 1 86 76 33 53 1,446.33 1761 1096 819 104 596 390 0.289 1.63 5.10 4339 1948 343 509 0.948 0.531 0.327 1.87 6.82 0.65 Deadball
teamhydro Talking to Tesla 162 6 2 90 72 44 58 1,461.33 1447 677 559 31 478 507 0.251 1.32 3.44 4384 1833 192 395 0.970 0.556 0.272 1.45 4.17 0.19 Deadball
schwarze Old: Full of Krapp & Duryea 162 8 5 103 59 49 59 1,463.67 1238 644 535 54 688 589 0.223 1.32 3.29 4391 1868 205 429 0.968 0.636 0.247 1.46 3.96 0.33 Deadball
fatguyrd Old Cubs 162 0 0 51 111 22 48 1,427.33 1667 1072 896 81 862 465 0.286 1.77 5.65 4282 1879 228 446 0.964 0.315 0.307 1.93 6.76 0.51 Deadball
jtvaughey Old Cy 162 10 3 83 79 38 52 1,426.00 1522 923 689 75 843 560 0.263 1.66 4.35 4278 1811 309 344 0.952 0.512 0.300 1.88 5.83 0.47 Deadball
milest Deadball Pitching & Bad Defense @ Target 162 1 0 27 135 12 26 1,408.67 2171 1732 1420 260 811 495 0.340 2.12 9.07 4226 1785 340 509 0.946 0.167 0.373 2.36 11.07 1.66 Deadball
just4me Defense Test: Deadball 162 1 0 89 73 30 48 1,446.33 1652 823 697 75 366 294 0.280 1.40 4.34 4339 1942 207 453 0.968 0.549 0.300 1.54 5.12 0.47 Deadball
just4me Defense Test: Modern 162 3 2 100 62 43 66 1,453.67 1498 680 555 109 300 821 0.258 1.24 3.44 4361 1697 164 350 0.974 0.617 0.276 1.35 4.21 0.67 Modern
fatguyrd Young Yu 162 3 0 57 105 27 48 1,427.33 1745 1174 1015 176 838 874 0.295 1.81 6.40 4282 1708 174 375 0.972 0.352 0.309 1.93 7.40 1.11 Modern
jtvaughey Young Wakefield 162 0 0 75 87 42 62 1,430.33 1471 771 662 137 558 1032 0.258 1.42 4.17 4291 1568 172 313 0.971 0.463 0.277 1.54 4.85 0.86 Modern
Chargingryno TWISL: Modern Fielding Test 163 1 0 92 71 38 54 1,465.67 1774 961 843 168 400 706 0.292 1.48 5.18 4397 1781 172 376 0.973 0.564 0.307 1.60 5.90 1.03 Modern
Contrarian23 TWISL New 162 3 1 83 79 32 46 1,449.00 1719 759 711 107 307 864 0.291 1.40 4.42 4347 1727 73 264 0.988 0.512 0.292 1.45 4.71 0.66 Modern
jfranco77 TWISL Modern-ish 162 1 0 97 65 47 64 1,437.33 1361 682 567 97 378 658 0.242 1.21 3.55 4312 1739 176 344 0.972 0.599 0.263 1.33 4.27 0.61 Modern
Doctorkz Twisl 1985-2016 Arms 162 9 2 89 73 39 67 1,461.33 1454 714 607 108 465 737 0.254 1.31 3.74 4384 1739 137 342 0.978 0.549 0.266 1.41 4.40 0.67 Modern
just4me TWISL - Modern Pitchers 162 1 1 102 60 44 65 1,448.33 1565 747 617 127 375 726 0.267 1.34 3.83 4345 1713 195 344 0.969 0.630 0.288 1.47 4.64 0.79 Modern
schwarze New: My Johnson Needs Orel 162 0 0 96 66 43 59 1,462.33 1254 715 603 136 595 942 0.225 1.26 3.71 4387 1694 167 378 0.973 0.593 0.245 1.38 4.40 0.84 Modern
milest Modern Pitching & Bad Defense at Target 162 1 1 16 146 7 30 1,388.33 2358 2022 1697 249 1006 558 0.363 2.42 11.00 4165 1716 290 374 0.953 0.099 0.389 2.63 13.11 1.61 Modern
teamhydro Driving a Tesla 162 2 2 94 68 49 56 1,452.67 1359 636 549 91 462 827 0.242 1.25 3.40 4358 1668 123 344 0.980 0.580 0.254 1.34 3.94 0.56 Modern
skinndogg Doggs Modern Day Hurlers 162 4 2 67 95 33 44 1,438.67 1503 821 733 155 512 894 0.263 1.40 4.59 4316 1650 118 295 0.981 0.414 0.273 1.48 5.14 0.97 Modern
Deadball Totals 1945 43 12 977 968 418 602 17329.33 19466 10808 8813 1026 6773 5416 0.262 1.514 4.577 51988 22547 2729 5145 0.965 0.502 0.299 1.67 5.61 0.53 Deadball Total
Modern Totals 1945 28 11 968 977 444 661 17314.99 19061 10682 9159 1660 6196 9639 0.261 1.459 4.761 51945 20400 1961 4099 0.974 0.498 0.288 1.57 5.55 0.86 Modern Total
Difference -15 -1 -9 9 26 59 -14.34 -405 -126 346 634 -577 4223 -0.001 -0.055 0.184 -43 -2147 -768 ##### 0.009 -0.005 ##### -0.10 -0.06 0.33 Modern-Deadball
3/30/2021 10:51 AM (edited)
Here is the same data dump sorted by owner so you can see the direct comparison of deadball-modern at an identical offense/defense/ballpark level:
Owner Team G CG SHO W L SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO OAV WHIP ERA PO A E DP FPCT W% OAV+E WHIP+E RA/9 HR/9 TEAM TYPE
Chargingryno TWISL: Deadball Fielding Test 162 2 0 89 73 32 42 1,439.00 1787 942 761 111 391 378 0.297 1.51 4.76 4317 1925 237 446 0.963 0.549 0.319 1.68 5.89 0.69 Deadball
Chargingryno TWISL: Modern Fielding Test 163 1 0 92 71 38 54 1,465.67 1774 961 843 168 400 706 0.292 1.48 5.18 4397 1781 172 376 0.973 0.564 0.307 1.60 5.90 1.03 Modern
Contrarian23 TWISL Old 163 1 1 91 72 41 57 1,450.67 1591 660 599 50 364 389 0.277 1.35 3.72 4352 1964 84 439 0.987 0.558 0.278 1.41 4.09 0.31 Deadball
Contrarian23 TWISL New 162 3 1 83 79 32 46 1,449.00 1719 759 711 107 307 864 0.291 1.40 4.42 4347 1727 73 264 0.988 0.512 0.292 1.45 4.71 0.66 Modern
Doctorkz Twisl 1888-1919 Arms 162 0 0 100 62 41 58 1,450.67 1482 689 591 68 416 445 0.257 1.31 3.67 4352 1881 188 376 0.971 0.617 0.277 1.44 4.27 0.42 Deadball
Doctorkz Twisl 1985-2016 Arms 162 9 2 89 73 39 67 1,461.33 1454 714 607 108 465 737 0.254 1.31 3.74 4384 1739 137 342 0.978 0.549 0.266 1.41 4.40 0.67 Modern
fatguyrd Old Cubs 162 0 0 51 111 22 48 1,427.33 1667 1072 896 81 862 465 0.286 1.77 5.65 4282 1879 228 446 0.964 0.315 0.307 1.93 6.76 0.51 Deadball
fatguyrd Young Yu 162 3 0 57 105 27 48 1,427.33 1745 1174 1015 176 838 874 0.295 1.81 6.40 4282 1708 174 375 0.972 0.352 0.309 1.93 7.40 1.11 Modern
jfranco77 TWISL Deadballers 162 3 0 93 69 35 49 1,454.00 1587 830 636 83 566 454 0.270 1.48 3.94 4362 1808 243 441 0.962 0.574 0.296 1.65 5.14 0.51 Deadball
jfranco77 TWISL Modern-ish 162 1 0 97 65 47 64 1,437.33 1361 682 567 97 378 658 0.242 1.21 3.55 4312 1739 176 344 0.972 0.599 0.263 1.33 4.27 0.61 Modern
jtvaughey Old Cy 162 10 3 83 79 38 52 1,426.00 1522 923 689 75 843 560 0.263 1.66 4.35 4278 1811 309 344 0.952 0.512 0.300 1.88 5.83 0.47 Deadball
jtvaughey Young Wakefield 162 0 0 75 87 42 62 1,430.33 1471 771 662 137 558 1032 0.258 1.42 4.17 4291 1568 172 313 0.971 0.463 0.277 1.54 4.85 0.86 Modern
just4me Defense Test: Deadball 162 1 0 89 73 30 48 1,446.33 1652 823 697 75 366 294 0.280 1.40 4.34 4339 1942 207 453 0.968 0.549 0.300 1.54 5.12 0.47 Deadball
just4me Defense Test: Modern 162 3 2 100 62 43 66 1,453.67 1498 680 555 109 300 821 0.258 1.24 3.44 4361 1697 164 350 0.974 0.617 0.276 1.35 4.21 0.67 Modern
just4me TWISL - Deadball Pitchers 162 11 1 86 76 33 53 1,446.33 1761 1096 819 104 596 390 0.289 1.63 5.10 4339 1948 343 509 0.948 0.531 0.327 1.87 6.82 0.65 Deadball
just4me TWISL - Modern Pitchers 162 1 1 102 60 44 65 1,448.33 1565 747 617 127 375 726 0.267 1.34 3.83 4345 1713 195 344 0.969 0.630 0.288 1.47 4.64 0.79 Modern
milest Deadball Pitching & Bad Defense @ Target 162 1 0 27 135 12 26 1,408.67 2171 1732 1420 260 811 495 0.340 2.12 9.07 4226 1785 340 509 0.946 0.167 0.373 2.36 11.07 1.66 Deadball
milest Modern Pitching & Bad Defense at Target 162 1 1 16 146 7 30 1,388.33 2358 2022 1697 249 1006 558 0.363 2.42 11.00 4165 1716 290 374 0.953 0.099 0.389 2.63 13.11 1.61 Modern
schwarze Old: Full of Krapp & Duryea 162 8 5 103 59 49 59 1,463.67 1238 644 535 54 688 589 0.223 1.32 3.29 4391 1868 205 429 0.968 0.636 0.247 1.46 3.96 0.33 Deadball
schwarze New: My Johnson Needs Orel 162 0 0 96 66 43 59 1,462.33 1254 715 603 136 595 942 0.225 1.26 3.71 4387 1694 167 378 0.973 0.593 0.245 1.38 4.40 0.84 Modern
skinndogg TWISL DOGGS DEADBALLERS ARE ALL DEAD 162 0 0 75 87 41 52 1,455.33 1561 720 611 34 392 450 0.269 1.34 3.78 4366 1903 153 358 0.976 0.463 0.282 1.45 4.45 0.21 Deadball
skinndogg Doggs Modern Day Hurlers 162 4 2 67 95 33 44 1,438.67 1503 821 733 155 512 894 0.263 1.40 4.59 4316 1650 118 295 0.981 0.414 0.273 1.48 5.14 0.97 Modern
teamhydro Talking to Tesla 162 6 2 90 72 44 58 1,461.33 1447 677 559 31 478 507 0.251 1.32 3.44 4384 1833 192 395 0.970 0.556 0.272 1.45 4.17 0.19 Deadball
teamhydro Driving a Tesla 162 2 2 94 68 49 56 1,452.67 1359 636 549 91 462 827 0.242 1.25 3.40 4358 1668 123 344 0.980 0.580 0.254 1.34 3.94 0.56 Modern
3/30/2021 10:54 AM (edited)
Quoting my personal highlight from the first post:

Showing how really close this was. Essentially, I think this makes it very clear, there is no value difference between deadball or modern pitchers once you account for errors and XBH/HR rates. The run allowance and W/L records the various pitching eras provide for the price are essentially identical.

The base salary seems to really account for these variances exceptionally well in terms of pricing actual sim value.

For myself, I prefer modern pitchers, as I believe it is easier to build offense/defense/ballpark around them as you have multiple ways to get their full value, where with deadball pitchers, to be get full value, you are limited to a very specific group of defenders which limits your offense/defense/ballpark options.

3/30/2021 11:06 AM (edited)
I've always liked using modern pitchers more, but assumed I was putting myself at a disadvantage for doing so. This is great information.
3/31/2021 2:58 AM
Wow, so for all the people who complain that dead ball pitchers break the game, it seems like when everything is factored in, the difference between deadball and modern pitchers are negligible.
3/31/2021 4:50 AM
Bump
4/4/2021 12:25 PM
Interesting stuff just4me, thanks for sharing. I always use modern pitchers in OLs, except the once or twice a year where I go with a Coors team and even then, I mix it up with a few modern pitchers and I have had a few of them even win the Cy Young at Coors.
From what I see in OLs I'm one of the very rare owners to do so, I'd say that 90% of starters I face are deadballers.

I never really understood that phobia of giving up a few more HRs by sticking to deadballers. My staffs give up more HRs than most still I have a pretty good winning % in OLs, around .580 and I also have a very good success ratio for making the playoffs and winning WS.

I hope this info encourages a few more owners to go with modern pitchers, just to see a little more diversity in OLs.
4/4/2021 12:45 PM
Bump for savoybg
12/10/2022 11:24 AM
This is cool. I wonder if it is possible to get the IF combined range factor vs OF combined range factor for each era of teams.
12/23/2022 4:07 PM
Posted by adsmith182 on 12/23/2022 4:07:00 PM (view original):
This is cool. I wonder if it is possible to get the IF combined range factor vs OF combined range factor for each era of teams.
I probably have those files downstairs still. No promises, but I’ll see if I can pull it up
12/23/2022 5:44 PM
Discussion thread has some stats that might be insightful

https://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?topicID=525362
12/25/2022 8:27 PM
bump
12/12/2023 11:14 PM
Have you tried running this at different salary caps? I'm curious what, if any, variation there is between higher caps and lower caps.
12/15/2023 8:37 PM
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Pitcher Value: Deadball vs Modern - TWISL Results Topic

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