What # of steals does sim look at for real life? Topic

lloyd1955
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Basically I'm wondering at which point does the sim look at at guys stolen base success rate?  And also does it factor speed into steals at all?   Somebody told me that it goes by success rate and not speed.  However, is there a minimum amount of steals for it to look at?  If a guy is 1 for 1 in real life, he surely won't be able to steal 90 bases in 95 or 100 tries.  Is the minimum 15? 20 steals?

If a guy happens to be 28 for 30 in steal attempts in real life, but has a 75 speed in the sim, will that drag him down, or is it irrelevant to the sim?

Thanks in advance for any input,

Lloyd
7/12/2010 3:25 AM
Trentonjoe
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I am pretty sure the information I am about to type is true:

1. Guys with less than 20 sba (roughly) don't steal nearly as much as you want them to if they are good.
2. Speed seems to be factored into sb success somehow.  Site staff claims it isn't but enough people have posted evidence in the past that it has made a believer out of me.
3. Speed rating becomes less important as RL stolen base attempts go up.
4. 
7/12/2010 8:57 AM
lloyd1955
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Hmmm so you feel the number is about 20?   There is a Paul O'neil Season where he is 15 for 16 in steals but his speed is in the mid to low 70's I believe.  Would he be able to possibly steal 50 bases and have a good success rate or would his 16 real life attempts be too few for the sim?
7/12/2010 10:48 AM
uncleal
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Unless you play LIVE, you probably won't be able to get more than 15 or so SB attempts of out him no matter what do you to his settings. He should be reasonably successful in those few attempts, though.
7/12/2010 10:58 AM
Trentonjoe
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It also depends on:

where you put bat him

and

How often he is on base.

The sim steals "situationally".  I haven't broken it down but leadoff hitters tend to have alot more attempts.  

Also, if you can't get on, you can't steal.   I have a Gary Pettis who was 24 for 29 in SBA in RL  (I forget what his speed is but it 80ish) but I bat him 8th and his OBP is only .290.   He is something like 11 for 14 in the sim 2/3rds of the way through.

His total is too low because:

a: he isn't on base enough
b: he isn't on base enough in the right situation  (the sim uses old school baseball logic like "don't steal with 2 outs and the pitcher up)

7/12/2010 11:10 AM
lloyd1955
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Yes, I play LIVE so i can pick and choose my spots based on sitation and mostly catcher's arm of the opponent. Maybe i'll post some results throughout the season and see if guys like this 15 for 16 paul o'neil can swipe 50 bases in LIve play and what his percentage ends up being.  Thanks for the info guys.
7/12/2010 11:44 AM
Trentonjoe
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His #'s could be through the roof live.   It's easy to do that when you play live.   
7/12/2010 11:55 AM
thurst63
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Yes in live you can get some great numbers.1987 Alan Trammell really life 21 for 23 SB.I have played him live and gone 58 for 58.He is unstoppable!.And hes speed is only 72.
 

 
 
7/12/2010 10:42 PM
Bilfert
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I was under the impression that it was established that SB% was a huge factor.  This would explain why Clay Bellinger and his 100 speed is useless as a PR, SB guy. We established that long ago in Live, not sure if it still stands with the last update. 
7/13/2010 4:24 PM
theyard2
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I always remember reading somewhere a while back that the magic number was 8, jose morban anyone?? If a player was 6/6 then he would still be counted as 6/8?? Of course this applies diferent to the sim vs live. I never thought speed had anything to do with sb success.
7/13/2010 8:28 PM
zubinsum
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Posted by Trentonjoe on 7/12/2010 8:57:00 AM (view original):
I am pretty sure the information I am about to type is true:

1. Guys with less than 20 sba (roughly) don't steal nearly as much as you want them to if they are good.
2. Speed seems to be factored into sb success somehow.  Site staff claims it isn't but enough people have posted evidence in the past that it has made a believer out of me.
3. Speed rating becomes less important as RL stolen base attempts go up.
4. 

I disagree a slight bit:
1) Guys with lesss than .20 SBA/SBO don't steal nearly as much as you want them to.
2) I think speed may play a factor in the use of hit and run plays which may ultimately affect stealing.  Personnally I haven't noticed a difference, but I trust others who have.


 

7/14/2010 9:50 PM
What # of steals does sim look at for real life? Topic
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