Hi all!

So I'm enjoying the $200M cap and typically go with 1917 Ty Cobb as my leadoff man on most teams I make.

Here are his stats for reference while I'm asking this question ;

Speed = 84
SB / SBA = 55 / 91 (60.44% success rate)


I've been keeping the other members of my team at "0" under the advanced hitter settings when it comes to Base Stealing but putting Cobb at "5". I'm finding that he does steal about 58-65 bases but also gets thrown out a lot as well.

Does anyone know if lowering that setting to like a "4" , "3" , etc. will make the success % increase? Or just decrease the amount of attempts he takes during a season?

Obviously I'd like him to run when he's got the best chance at making it and would be happier with a 40-45 SB season on a 75% rate rather than a 55-60 SB season on a 60% rate. Giving away outs seems like it's never a good idea :)

Appreciate the feedback!

That would just decrease his attempts, I believe the SIM already takes into account the catcher’s arm when deciding when to run. Elite A+ arms have less attempts on them than C- arms

I'm pretty sure the higher settings mean he will attempt more steals, necessarily including more risky attempts. Theoretically, if you lower that number, he'll be a bit more selective on his attempts, lowering total SB but raising his percentage. Maybe someone out there has data to back this up - or refute it?

i think you'd see a slight improvement in percentage but not high enough to make it worthwhile. really high caps like $200M are generally hitting heavy so you really don't want to be giving away outs

Never, ever steal bases with 60% success guys, regardless of how many attempts thy had in real life. Set them to 0 and be done with it.

Bill James published a study he did many years ago in one of his Baseball Abstracts, that showed 67% was the break even point. (That means if your player went 40-for-60 in steals, his baserunning had no effect to your offense). That study was based on data from years when scoring was much more depressed than it is now. My guess is that the break even point is probably over 70%. When you factor in most sim teams have decent armed catchers, your player should probably be at least 75% before even considering allowing your guys to steal. Of course, if you micro manage, you can flip the setting every game or series, based on the catcher's arm.

Appreciate the feedback! Yea I'd like to have a great leadoff hitter who can steal but the problem is that when I look for those high SB% success rate guys...they hit like .300 and aren't anywhere near the counting stats I have for my other hitters. It's like an outlier with the other starting 7 hitting in the .370 - .400 range , 40+ doubles, high walk rate, low K rate, etc. that I need to score at $200M.

Putting a Joe Morgan / Tim Raines / Max Carey on a team like that doesn't make sense so I'll probably just set Cobb to "0" and be ok with not stealing at all.

At that cap, your offense will generate more hits overall compared to lower caps. You can gain extra bases with the base running aggressiveness team setting over having individual players attempt steals. More 1st to 3rd/Home, 2nd to Home, etc.

Stolen Bases are overrated unless the success rate is very high. I'd rather have a leadoff guy with high OBP. Speed is useful for staying out of double plays but the leadoff hitter has fewer double play opps.
I've always wondered if the low number means he only attempts higher probability steals but haven't seen much evidence that this is so.

True, I always keep my Hit n Run / Base Running Aggressiveness at "4' or "5" for the teams I build. Most of my hitters have good speed and contact anyway so it seems to help them get those extra bases :)

@rbow923 - I'm not sure either, I'd assume that's what it means but would I be happy running with someone who's 10 for 11 on a season at a 78 speed? Doubtful!

A player's speed score only impacts frequency and success rate of taking an extra base while running. It doesn't affect steals in any way (attempts or success rate).

If a guy was 10/10 on SB in real life but his WIS speed score is 40, then for base STEALING purposes you would treat him the same as a guy who was 10/10 with a 99 speed score.

skunk206's point here is really important - I have seen many owners over the years get confused about this.

Neither WIS speed score nor the baserunning aggressiveness setting have ANY impact on steals.