Hi all - I am trying to figure out how the sim engine calculates pitcher per PA. My understanding is the logic of each plate appearance is a decision tree based on PA outcomes, not at the pitch level. So, how are discrepancies in pitches/PA determined?

I seem to have a pretty clear (and I'd say appropriate) correlation between higher k's+bb's and higher pitches/PA among my various staffs. Just using mostly deadballers, I have a range of 3.2-3.5/PA. I imagine it's even higher for modern types. Even so, that 10% band of pitch count is a meaningful difference, when it comes to fatigue management.

Anybody know how this logic works? Is there a set # of pitches per non-K-or-BB PAs, and likewise for Ks-or-BBs ?

I don't ever remember this being discussed before, and certainly not fully explained by WIS or figured out by a user.

My best guess is that each possible outcome of a PA has a fixed range of total pitches assigned to it, with more likely numbers weighted more heavily. Then it's just a random spin of the wheel to determine how many pitches the PA was worth once the outcome is known.

Example: A base on balls has a range of 4-12 pitches (example only, no idea if true). After a PA ends in a walk, the RNG determines it required 5 pitches and the pitcher's count has five added to it. The next PA also results in a walk. This time the RNG spins a 9 so nine pitches are added to the pitcher's total.

Higher numbers like 9 or 12 would have much lower odds than 4 or 5.

The range for a strikeout could be 3-12.
A hit of any type/HBP/error/other events could happen on the first pitch so those ranges could be 1-12.
Etc.

That's how I've always imagined it works.

justforme is the guy you want to talk to