I have read every post, article, etc etc about 20 times that has anything to do with usage....but wanted to get some opinions from some of the people that know a whole lot more than me. What is the min amount of usage you would go with to run a half court offense? Max for uptempo? Are we counting points or total usage? How bad are some of the negative effects for not running enough or too much? If anyone would like to be generous with some info/their opinions, I would greatly appreciate it! I'm now officially addicted to sim basketball, I have almost completely moved over here from sim baseball. (Sim baseball now just helps $upport my habit over here!!) Thanks!

7/14/2011 5:45 PM
What is the min amount of usage you would go with to run a half court offense?
10 usage points.

Max for uptempo?
same.

Are we counting points or total usage?
points.  It doesn't make sense, but it's the way they do it.  A 27.1% usage guy dominates the ball far more than a 22.2% one, yet they are treated equally in the occasion.

How bad are some of the negative effects for not running enough or too much?
The only negative effect of running too much is wasted salary.  Through my extensive experimentation I've determined that you don't really benefit from having more than 10 usage points when it comes to the negatives (turnovers, lower fg%).  I still see similar increases in tov% with 18 usage points as 10.  The only thing I've definitely seen as bad from running only 10 usage points is a slight decrease in fg%.  But it's very slight.  It's a shame because with higher usage on the floor, you would think that it would open up better shots for everyone (increasing fg%) and help players take better care of the basketball since they wouldn't have to be "forcing it" so much.  But what do I know?  I'm just watch basketball.


7/14/2011 8:27 PM

For me to determine if a team is half court one thing I do is I add the total amount of usage of my starting 5 and its 107 or below I look towards doing a half court team.  This is a very inexact science (or it doesnt mean anything at all), sometimes I think my team is a half court team and its not doing well.  So I switch it to a full court and it does better or visa versa.  Sometimes you might just have to see how it goes with your team during a season.  Also reason for a half court team if is to cut down on TOs and Fouls.  Less possession means less times your team will screw up.

 

7/15/2011 7:18 AM
thanks guys, greatly appreciated!!!
7/15/2011 2:08 PM
Posted by eleibowitz on 7/15/2011 7:18:00 AM (view original):

For me to determine if a team is half court one thing I do is I add the total amount of usage of my starting 5 and its 107 or below I look towards doing a half court team.  This is a very inexact science (or it doesnt mean anything at all), sometimes I think my team is a half court team and its not doing well.  So I switch it to a full court and it does better or visa versa.  Sometimes you might just have to see how it goes with your team during a season.  Also reason for a half court team if is to cut down on TOs and Fouls.  Less possession means less times your team will screw up.

 

"Less possession means less times your team will screw up."

Not necessarily.  From what I've seen, the percentage of times your team screws up remains the same or is even greater... thus you're not helping your cause and only enabling outliers a greater chance to screw you over (assuming you've the better team).
7/15/2011 3:25 PM
there's that word again, outliers

it seems to me that there are so many outlier behaviors (multiple outlier outcomes in almost every game: your 90% FTA guy shoots 3 of 10, you hit 72% of your threes, Wilt fouls out in 12 minutes and your 48-7 team loses to that 12-43 basement dweller) that outliers arent by definition outliers around these parts, that in fact outliers are rather the norm

one could argue that it is achieving the mean expectation in WTFsports that is the 'outlier' behavior
7/15/2011 9:35 PM
Posted by ashamael on 7/15/2011 3:25:00 PM (view original):
Posted by eleibowitz on 7/15/2011 7:18:00 AM (view original):

For me to determine if a team is half court one thing I do is I add the total amount of usage of my starting 5 and its 107 or below I look towards doing a half court team.  This is a very inexact science (or it doesnt mean anything at all), sometimes I think my team is a half court team and its not doing well.  So I switch it to a full court and it does better or visa versa.  Sometimes you might just have to see how it goes with your team during a season.  Also reason for a half court team if is to cut down on TOs and Fouls.  Less possession means less times your team will screw up.

 

"Less possession means less times your team will screw up."

Not necessarily.  From what I've seen, the percentage of times your team screws up remains the same or is even greater... thus you're not helping your cause and only enabling outliers a greater chance to screw you over (assuming you've the better team).
Well not from what I've expereinced.  If I have a team that is turnover or fouling too much switching to half court has helped most times. 
7/17/2011 9:55 AM
Placebo effect.  Have you run the advanced stats?  Every time I make the switch, my tov% remains the same or even higher.  Fouls... that's a different story.
7/17/2011 4:05 PM
Posted by ashamael on 7/17/2011 4:05:00 PM (view original):
Placebo effect.  Have you run the advanced stats?  Every time I make the switch, my tov% remains the same or even higher.  Fouls... that's a different story.

Actually just did and your correct about TOV% but like you said fouls are a discernable differnce

 

7/21/2011 11:40 AM
hey yard, i'm not sure i agree with any of the previous posts, especially the case to be made about "outliers' or such randomness affecting outcomes of games. if randomness was such an inhibitor, you wouldn't be seeing so many 60 win teams in the top 25.

sure, randomness and outliers exist at a high rate, but only for teams where the roster encourages such happenstance. and you asked the right question, usage. i believe this is the single biggest factor in determining, or actually, reducing random outliers on a per game basis. used to be, an owner would draft 5 studs that took up the bulwark of mins, with lots of 3's, boards, and dimes...

but this is a different sim engine now, where i believe part time players rule the roost, and they should always be playing uptempo, regardless of the usage. if too many outliers are happening, it is because your squad is imbalanced on the floor at different times throughout the game.

i am having great success now with my starters not exceeding 2300-2600 mins... and their backups at 1150-1300 mins that mirrors the starter's usage% (which is the key ingrediant). if my starting sg is danny granger, who's usage is 27%, then i will back him up with a player like j.r. smith, who's usage is 26%. and so on. if i can manage my depth as such, i have taken a giant step in maintaining balance on the floor.

this is why scrubs, and rookies, tend to imbalance a team, and thus, outliers and randomness abounds. even if a team uses its rookies, the 60 win teams's rookies become part of the depth chart on a regualer basis and are not really used as filler mins when a salaried player goes into the blue from fatigue.

something to think about when putting together your next team. good luck.
7/23/2011 10:00 AM
 i'm not sure i agree with any of the previous posts, especially the case to be made about "outliers' or such randomness affecting outcomes of games. if randomness was such an inhibitor, you wouldn't be seeing so many 60 win teams in the top 25.
What do you call a situation where a team with 55/115 reb% gets out rebounded 60-40 by a team with 30/75?  The reason you see 60 win teams instead of 75 win teams is because of those outliers

sure, randomness and outliers exist at a high rate, but only for teams where the roster encourages such happenstance.
See previous statement.  How does that happen?

and you asked the right question, usage. i believe this is the single biggest factor in determining, or actually, reducing random outliers on a per game basis. used to be, an owner would draft 5 studs that took up the bulwark of mins, with lots of 3's, boards, and dimes...

but this is a different sim engine now,
It's the same engine.  Different players in the database, but the same engine.  That certainly creates a different environment, however, and certainly means that different strategies have to be put into play.

where i believe part time players rule the roost, and they should always be playing uptempo, regardless of the usage.
I agree with all of this.

if too many outliers are happening, it is because your squad is imbalanced on the floor at different times throughout the game.
This I disagree with.  I've done extensive study on the teams I feel that are under performing, looking closely at the play-by-plays to see what line-ups are in when slumps happen and when hot streaks happen... my conclusion?  Randomness.  To be continued...

i am having great success now with my starters not exceeding 2300-2600 mins... and their backups at 1150-1300 mins that mirrors the starter's usage% (which is the key ingrediant). if my starting sg is danny granger, who's usage is 27%, then i will back him up with a player like j.r. smith, who's usage is 26%. and so on. if i can manage my depth as such, i have taken a giant step in maintaining balance on the floor.
I typically do the same thing.  I don't see why anybody would do differently.

this is why scrubs, and rookies, tend to imbalance a team, and thus, outliers and randomness abounds. even if a team uses its rookies, the 60 win teams's rookies become part of the depth chart on a regualer basis and are not really used as filler mins when a salaried player goes into the blue from fatigue.
I believe this to be the weakest part of open leagues now... to compete, you have to draft less minutes than you ideally would or else your players are inferior.  But in doing that, you depend on rookies to fill up some time... and rookies suck.


I have a new theory on team building here lately.  In the last incarnation, possession advantage trumped everything.  I don't think that is the case now.  I think the shooting war trumps everything (but possession advantage is still highly valued).  I had a couple of teams dominate early in this incarnation with ridiculous boards & good defense, but now those same teams are winning less & less games.  The teams where I've skimped a bit on boards and instead drafted higher fg% are doing better, however.

The ultimate answer is both, of course, but getting there... that's the challenge.  About the time I do that, the database will change again.  Of course, the environment is always changing, and that's why I stick with sim nba... other owners are constantly forcing you to change what you do.

7/23/2011 1:11 PM

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