i'm not sure i agree with any of the previous posts, especially the case to be made about "outliers' or such randomness affecting outcomes of games. if randomness was such an inhibitor, you wouldn't be seeing so many 60 win teams in the top 25.
What do you call a situation where a team with 55/115 reb% gets out rebounded 60-40 by a team with 30/75? The reason you see 60 win teams instead of 75 win teams is because of those outliers
sure, randomness and outliers exist at a high rate, but only for teams where the roster encourages such happenstance.
See previous statement. How does that happen?
and you asked the right question, usage. i believe this is the single biggest factor in determining, or actually, reducing random outliers on a per game basis. used to be, an owner would draft 5 studs that took up the bulwark of mins, with lots of 3's, boards, and dimes...
but this is a different sim engine now,
It's the same engine. Different players in the database, but the same engine. That certainly creates a different environment, however, and certainly means that different strategies have to be put into play.
where i believe part time players rule the roost, and they should always be playing uptempo, regardless of the usage.
I agree with all of this.
if too many outliers are happening, it is because your squad is imbalanced on the floor at different times throughout the game.
This I disagree with. I've done extensive study on the teams I feel that are under performing, looking closely at the play-by-plays to see what line-ups are in when slumps happen and when hot streaks happen... my conclusion? Randomness. To be continued...
i am having great success now with my starters not exceeding 2300-2600 mins... and their backups at 1150-1300 mins that mirrors the starter's usage% (which is the key ingrediant). if my starting sg is danny granger, who's usage is 27%, then i will back him up with a player like j.r. smith, who's usage is 26%. and so on. if i can manage my depth as such, i have taken a giant step in maintaining balance on the floor.
I typically do the same thing. I don't see why anybody would do differently.
this is why scrubs, and rookies, tend to imbalance a team, and thus, outliers and randomness abounds. even if a team uses its rookies, the 60 win teams's rookies become part of the depth chart on a regualer basis and are not really used as filler mins when a salaried player goes into the blue from fatigue.
I believe this to be the weakest part of open leagues now... to compete, you have to draft less minutes than you ideally would or else your players are inferior. But in doing that, you depend on rookies to fill up some time... and rookies suck.
I have a new theory on team building here lately. In the last incarnation, possession advantage trumped everything. I don't think that is the case now. I think the shooting war trumps everything (but possession advantage is still highly valued). I had a couple of teams dominate early in this incarnation with ridiculous boards & good defense, but now those same teams are winning less & less games. The teams where I've skimped a bit on boards and instead drafted higher fg% are doing better, however.
The ultimate answer is both, of course, but getting there... that's the challenge. About the time I do that, the database will change again. Of course, the environment is always changing, and that's why I stick with sim nba... other owners are constantly forcing you to change what you do.