Help with my 2nd team, please - SimLeague Baseball

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I have read and reread the forums, and much of what has been posted is contradicted by another post,you know what i mean? So, for an OL, probably in the Astrodome, how many AB's and IP do I really need? Also, the whole normalization thing is very confusing, the concept itself, and different people have different opinions on how it works. I have been looking primarily at the ERC numbers, to select. If a pitcher's advanced ERC is lower than his RL ERC, and his ERC+ is above 150, is he a good bet? or are my standards too high? And D...The premier defensive players are very expensive, but if you drop your standards to B and C, prices seem more favorable...or is the D worth it, say, up the middle? Thanks in advance for any help.

4/27/2010 5:45 PM

clackumus

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To me defense at 3b and ss is the most critical bad fielders at those positions will kill you. As far as the pitching goes to start out get low oav, low walks and and low hrs per 9. You can learn all the normalization crap later. There are many approaches to all this, but in the dome I like speed and as with (all )my teams high obp, for my hitters. For me if I can I draft hitters with more walks than k's.

4/27/2010 6:01 PM

2pragmatic

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thank you clackamus, but this is where it gets confusing. low OAV, but by which standard? RL or normalized, or both? same with walks. I guess what I am trying to figure out is which numbers are the most significant in predicting the performance of a given pitcher?

4/27/2010 6:14 PM

clackumus

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Well to me a low oav would be .220 or below and low bbs is below 3 per 9 innings. Low hr's per 9 would be less than .5, but thats just my opinion for what its worth. One thing I also do that has seemed to work is look at oav# and get someone who's oav# is less than actual oav. It's worked for me.

4/27/2010 6:24 PM

clackumus

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Also the same with erc and erc#, near 2.0 i might add.

4/27/2010 6:29 PM

pfattkatt

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clackamus, that is excellent advice you gave him. I frequently select too few IPs, I know people have said they can get by with less, but unless you are willing to throw some games(which is a winning strategy,BTW), I would go 1300-1350, and 5000 ABs. And don't go nuts with lots of teams. Glean what knowledge exists in each team you play B4 going on to the next one. But if you follow what clackamus said, and don't drive yourself nuts with the normalization, you should have a competitive team. You did well with the WW in the league we are in, but the WW is a fall back we'd like to stay away from. Judging by the players you selected, and those you dropped, I can tell you are on the right track. Although I am certain '15 Pete is spinning in his grave!!!

4/27/2010 6:37 PM

clackumus

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I agree, like I said to start out with. You can learn that normalization crap later.

4/27/2010 7:04 PM

zubinsum

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Quote: Originally Posted By 2pragmatic on 4/27/2010
I have read and reread the forums, and much of what has been posted is contradicted by another post,you know what i mean? So, for an OL, probably in the Astrodome, how many AB's and IP do I really need? Also, the whole normalization thing is very confusing, the concept itself, and different people have different opinions on how it works. I have been looking primarily at the ERC numbers, to select. If a pitcher's advanced ERC is lower than his RL ERC, and his ERC+ is above 150, is he a good bet? or are my standards too high? And D...The premier defensive players are very expensive, but if you drop your standards to B and C, prices seem more favorable...or is the D worth it, say, up the middle? Thanks in advance for any help.

1) You only need 4800 quality PAs. Draft 8 (or 9, if you want one platoon) position players that total 4800-5000PA. Then draft 4 ~$200K scrubs.

2) You need 1200-1300 quality IP. Draft 10-11 quality pitchers. ~70% of your innings should be from 3-5 starters. The reamining pitchers should be relatively low IP starters or relievers. Draft 2-3 $200K scrubs to complete your roster.

3) When drafting the simpliest accurate way to gauge expected performance is the use of normalized (i.e. #) stats. For hitters the most important stats are avg#, obp# and slg# followed by hr#, 1b#, 2b#, 3b#. You achieve the most synergies by matching hit type# stats to a park's effects. For example, a hitter with a hr/100ab# of 9 benefits much more from Chicago's Wrigley Field +3hr than a hitter with only a hr/100ab# of 1. There is an important caveat to relying in # stats, however. That is that modern home run hitters (post 1990) tend to underperfrom their hr/100ab# stats while old-time (pre-1920) hitters tend to slightly overperfrom their hr/100ab# stats.

4) When drafting pitchers look at oavg#, hr/9#, and bb/9 or bb/9#. For your first (or second) team, I'd recomend staying away from pitchers with a bb/9 above 2 and a hr/9# above 0.5. I'd also recomend paying attention to ip/g for your starting pitchers. Initially I'd take guys with 7+ ip/g.

5) For defense, I'd stick to guys that have a A (A- to A+) fielding at SS. For 2B , 3B and CF, I'd stick to guys that have at least a B fielding rating. I'd look for C-rated fielding from LF and RF. At first base and catcher, just don't draft a D- fielder. Your catcher should have at least an A- arm. As for range, initially stay away from D- range at all positions. If you want to pay for range, it may be worth it at SS and CF, less so at 2B, 3B, and probably not worth it at LF, RF and 1B.

Keep in mind these are only my recomendations to get you started. These recomendations won't guarantee you a great team, but it will keep you from an awful one. Also, keep in mind there are many ways to win in the sim and some will break the guideline I provided above.

4/28/2010 1:27 AM

thunder1008

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I agree with most of what has been said here. You should be fine with 1200 quality IP (not counting scrubs and prospects) and 4800 PA in most parks except Coors. If you think you will check your rosters for each of the 3 SIM games/day, the minimums should be plenty because you can substitute regularly for players showing signs of fatigue. If you think you will sometimes leave your team untended for a day or two, fatigue will increase rapidly, so draft more IP's and PA's to give yourself a cushion.

As a general rule, don't pay over $200 K for your scrubs. You will generally want to play your AAA players in place of scrubs, because your AAA players average ~$1-$3 MM in value v. $200 K for your scrubs. The one exception is Mop Up pitching, where "good" scrubs can be very useful, especially if you have decent AAA pitchers you want to use as starters or in the bullpen.

I like strong defenses up the middle (C, SS, 2B, CF), respectable at 3B and in LF, and I basically ignore defense at 1B and RF, where I go for offense or a AAA punt instead. As discussed in more detail in other very good threads, it makes sense to pay for a catcher with at least an A+ arm, maybe even A+++.

I use fewer pitchers than most (certainly fewer than Zubinsum) -- I draft 3-5 man rotations and draft 4-5 pitchers for the bullpen, so I only draft 8-9 quality pitchers total, occasionally 10. I usually gamble on one of my two AAA prospects being decent enough to be a long reliever or a setup man, though that's not a lock.

Don't go crazy calculating the normalization stats, especially at first. If you want to "cheat" the system a little, check out the Performance Histories very carefully, which will give you a better indication of how different players will perform for you than your own interpretation of OBP#, OAV#, etc., at least at first.

Walks and HR's will kill you. I never draft pitchers with more than 3.0BB/G or more than 0.5 HR/G, and I recommend even less.

Take the time to run the charts on your AAA prospects to find out who they really are. I learned that the hard way. Otherwise you're just guessing on how they will perform until at least halfway into the season, because their ratings are often misleading. If you know who they are, you can play them accordingly. I think that's good for at least one to three extra wins/season, maybe more.

4/28/2010 3:01 AM

boogerlips

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Man, if I figure out who my AAA is, I can win an extra 3 games? Sweet! Thanks, Thunderbrains!

4/28/2010 3:54 AM

Trentonjoe

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Quote: Originally posted by 2pragmatic on 4/27/2010I have read and reread the forums, and much of what has been posted is contradicted by another post,you know what i mean? So, for an OL, probably in the Astrodome, how many AB's and IP do I really need?

You need about 730 PA for the leadoff spot in order to remain at 100% the whole season. You need roughly 30 less PA for each spot farther down in the order. Many people are comfortable playing people under 100%, it is something you might want to play around with.

As per IP, I generally try to get 1250 quality IP. That plus a 30 IP 200K and the two AAA pitchers will be more than enough. As you get more comfortable with the game you can go lower.

Also, the whole normalization thing is very confusing, the concept itself, and different people have different opinions on how it works. I have been looking primarily at the ERC numbers, to select. If a pitcher's advanced ERC is lower than his RL ERC, and his ERC+ is above 150, is he a good bet? or are my standards too high?

That isn't the best search parameter but it isn't the worst either. Others have mentioned bb/9 and hr/9. I go out of my way to get pitchers who don't walk or give up homeruns

And D...The premier defensive players are very expensive, but if you drop your standards to B and C, prices seem more favorable...or is the D worth it, say, up the middle? Thanks in advance for any help.

I don't have a handle on the new defensive system yet but I would avoid D- guys like the plague. It's important to know that the two letters mean different things. Fielding is all about errors and range affects the + plays and turning double plays.

4/28/2010 8:26 AM

clackumus

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Quote: Originally Posted By boogerlips on 4/28/2010Man, if I figure out who my AAA is, I can win an extra 3 games? Sweet! Thanks, Thunderbrains!

4/28/2010 8:35 AM

mixtroy

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While much of the above advice is very sound, you will often find that you will feel a little more comfortable doing things your own way and based on your own hunches about a particular player, because when all is said and done, no matter who you decided to draft for your team (assuming you drafted reasonably decent players), it's the SIM that's going to determine whether you win or not.

As for pitching, me personally, I make it a point to have at least two top notch starting pitchers (like 00 Martinez, 94 and 95 Maddux, 10 Ed Walsh, 02 Bernhard, 08 Joss, 15 Pete Alexander etc.) and focus on stats like OAV# (generally .200 or less), WHIP# (no higher than 1.00), BB/9, HR/100AB, along with the hit and strand rates of a pitcher. Of course this does not guarantee a championship or even a playoff appearance, but you can't go wrong this way.

4/30/2010 3:38 PM

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