I have read EVERYTHING in the forums, and am looking to get started playing in leagues.I'm not asking for anyone to give me their "cookies,"but even after reading some excellent articles on normalization, it is still pretty tough to anticipate how it will play out in a league. For example, a pitchers # numbers can all be lower than his RL numbers, yet his ERC# may still be higher than his RL ERC. Or, a hitter may have a higher # BA than his RL BA< but his 1b# numbers,and his 2b# numbers, and his 3b# numbers, and his HR# numbers may all be lower than RL. How does one interpret these things, to select the best value in a player?

Quote: Originally posted by 2pragmatic on 3/30/2010...it is still pretty tough to anticipate how it will play out in a league...

It usually is, since each league is a little different. One hitter will dominate in a league, but get hosed in another league, depending on what kind of pitching, defense, and park factors he encounters.

Don't try to overanalyze it before you even start. Reading up on normalization as much as you have puts you way ahead of the game for a newcomer. At least you understand that Bob Gibson isn't going to put up a 1.12 ERA and Barry Bonds won't hit 73 home runs. Put together what looks like a reasonable team from what you know, and learn from what worked and what didn't.

1b# numbers are rounded to a lesser digit than batting average.

Each player has a performance history. No better way to predict the future than to look at the past. I typically analyze a player's normalization, come up with how I think he'll perform, and then check out his performance history, which usually confirms what I was thinking. As a new player you can work that backwards. Look at players' histories, then look at how they normalize, and get a feel for it that way.

I've been here quite a while and still don't have a perfect grasp of normalization, and I doubt anyone else does either (including admin). So, just do the best you can. Have fun!

Yep... Nobody knows exactly how each particular league will shake out. If we did, there'd be no reason to play.

Just build your best team, with what you know, and play. Evaluate your teams, and see if you can find patterns. Then learn from them, and go on.

And don't draft John Franco to be your closer.

once you've gotten 90% of the way there, in terms of the HR/9+, AVG#, BB/9# and raw stats that you want... then the choice is the player who is best for your park.

now ball parks are another bit of confusion. I played Strat-O-Matic's on line game, and there, ball park choices are pretty obvious. Normalization isn't a factor, whatever a player's stats are, are pretty much what you can expect. Robison Field, for example, has a 95% chance of a LH hitters Flyball X turning into a HR, so players like Ruth and Maris will hit 60 (at least) in that park. '61 Johnny Blanchard is a dominant player in that park. I picked a team here with what I expect to be dominant pitching, with the 400+ inning starter that several HOFers have called the best, along with 2 215 inning pitchers that the consensus seems to think are the best, along with 2 125 inning pitchers with similar reputations, set them in a 1, tandem 2a/2b, 3a/3b rotation, with a dominant closer(not john franco), and placed them in Polo V. The league I joined is a "win your first" league, with 30/20 waa AAA players, random. So I spent most of my money on pitching, with '22 Ruth and '02 Honus as OF'ers, and a few limited use players with excellent defensive skills for the center of the diamond, so that I can use them as defensive subs, at least, for most of the season. Hopefully I can fill out my line up from the AAA, and pick up a few innings there as well. That seems like an excellent plan to me. Am i missing something?

In general that's about how you want to operate in a AAA league. You're more likely to get decent hitters than pitchers. Now look at the "AAA - Just the Charts" thread to learn how to identify AAA. That will help you call up the best guys for your park. Remember that they'll be normalized against 2009.

And apparently that thread got bumped between when I opened this one and when I went back to the main forum. Lucky you!