Here's a hypothetical (although I do have certain players in mind):

If you could draft either of these players, which would score the most runs as a leadoff hitter?

A: Normalization 127 Avg+ and 129 OBP+, speed 59, 701 PA, 1-2 SB.

B: 117 Avg+ and 124 OBP+, speed 82, 714 PA, 47-10 SB.

This league will have tough pitching and average catcher's arms. His team would have high-average hitters with good (but not Ruthian) power in the 3, 4, 5 holes.

Would A get on base enough extra times to be better than B's clear advantage in taking extra bases?

P.S.--Their defensive ability is very close to being equal.

I would take B, though I'd want to know their OBP# numbers to be sure. I'd trade a little OBP for that much speed.

I look at #. I rarely look at +

more info needed, so i'll say take whoever has more XBH. I might take A the better hitter. all signs point to B as a more prototypical leadoff hitter but none of that matters if he doesnt hit well. A may not score more runs but he'll surely drive in more.

OBP# -- A = .420; B = .413.

Not much difference there; however, I'm always skeptical about OBP#, because I've seen cases in which a player's OBP+ is way higher than another's but his OBP# is actually lower.

Am I correct that the WIS computer considers OBP+, but that OBP# is only a result (or perhaps a calculated estimate) and not a factor in the event tree?

All it takes is facing a fatigued pitching staff for a series or 2 to skew offensive numbers. That and late season fatigue/playoff rest makes me think twice while I look at player's stats.

Having said that, I'd take B easily. 82 speed compared to 59 speed will result in a TON more runs, even if his OBP is .020-.030 points lower.

How do the cost and SLG compare?

Quote: Originally posted by beaneball on 3/10/2010All it takes is facing a fatigued pitching staff for a series or 2 to skew offensive numbers. That and late season fatigue/playoff rest makes me think twice while I look at player's stats.

Having said that, I'd take B easily. 82 speed compared to 59 speed will result in a TON more runs, even if his OBP is .020-.030 points lower.

I'm not sure that works out that way. 82 speed in the #2 spot is going to stay out of a LOT of double plays that 59 in the #2 spot is going to hit into.

Quote: Originally posted by doubletruck on 3/10/2010OBP# -- A = .420; B = .413.

Not much difference there; however, I'm always skeptical about OBP#, because I've seen cases in which a player's OBP+ is way higher than another's but his OBP# is actually lower.

Am I correct that the WIS computer considers OBP+, but that OBP# is only a result (or perhaps a calculated estimate) and not a factor in the event tree?

Isn't OBP+ the stat based on how this player compares to the rest of the league in that year?

I take B. I don't usually like turtles in the 1 or 2 hole. (There are exceptions of course). A stolen base, walk etc. gets a fast guy to 2nd better chance to score on a following single.

ok I looked them up and I'm changing my vote to B. other factors not listed here are not equal.

rbow: That's true. This is because I was more interested in the contrast I set up in the "hypothetical" than in the actual difference between the two. You may have noticed that I also changed a factoid or two, because I wanted to disguise these two a little.