SBs - Speed vs. Percentage Topic

b47p
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How much a factor do each play in determining how many SBs a player may have. i.e., would you rather a guy with 85 speed and 32 for 35 SBs or a guy with 97 speed and 25 for 35 SBs?



thanks
11/25/2009 11:27 AM
mpitt76
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speed means nothing, it's all %
11/25/2009 11:31 AM
zubinsum
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The number of SBs is determined by SB/100SBO, and the relative strength of catcher's arms you face. A guy who is 10/10 in real life SBs may only steal a few in the sim even when set on "5."

Once the sim logic decides a player will steal the chance of sucess is basically his RL SB% normalized against the catcher's CS%.

Speed plays no part in the calculation.
11/25/2009 2:26 PM
houseofbayne
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I cannot find the thread but this was discussed before. Someone sitemailed admin and part of the response back was that the speed rating was one of the various factors used to calculate whether or not a steal would be successful. Real life SB/CS % and the opponent's catcher arm are the biggest factors, but speed rating is part of the equation.
11/25/2009 4:05 PM
phantom23
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Quote: Originally Posted By zubinsum on 11/25/2009
The number of SBs is determined by SB/100SBO, and the relative strength of catcher's arms you face. A guy who is 10/10 in real life SBs may only steal a few in the sim even when set on "5."

Once the sim logic decides a player will steal the chance of sucess is basically his RL SB% normalized against the catcher's CS%.

Speed plays no part in the calculation.



This is true, but the % comes into play BIG TIME in LIVE. For example, I can steal over 100 bases easy with 1987 Alan Trammell. The reason? He was 21/23 stealing bases....a very lovely .913 success rate. I do not think his WIS speed rating is all that high though, and he tends to hit into a ton of dp's when I use him.
11/25/2009 4:10 PM
skinndogg
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My question is when does speed play a role? To see if a runner beats a throw from the OF home?



Also, what do you guys do with players like 1911 Ty Cobb?

87 stolen bases but he was caught 42 times. A .674 success rate. Against a decent catcher it would be less than that.

Do you want 42 of Ty Cobb's base hits to be worthless?

Would you put his steals at "1" or "2", or even "0" ?





12/28/2009 4:01 PM
contrarian23
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I would set Cobb to zero against all but the worst-throwing catchers. If you are playing a high enough cap to justify having 1911 Cobb in the lineup, the cost of being caught stealing is way too high.
12/28/2009 4:28 PM
robmb
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Quote: Originally posted by skinndogg on 12/28/2009 My question is when does speed play a role?  To see if a runner beats a throw from the OF home? Also, what do you guys do with players like 1911 Ty Cobb?87 stolen bases but he was caught 42 times.  A .674 success rate.  Against a decent catcher it would be less than that.Do you want 42 of Ty Cobb's base hits to be worthless?Would you put his steals at "1" or "2", or even "0" ?     
I have the same question regarding when does the sim actually use the speed rating to deliver the outcome of any particular play? Will players with higher speed ratings take extra bases more often?
12/28/2009 5:34 PM
cespencer
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Yes, they will. But if his baserunning ratings are low, he will get thrown out a lot trying for the extra base. Also, really fast players beat out a bunch of infield hits, even more if they have excellent contact ratings.

Cobb & almost all pre-1920 players were low-percentage base-stealers (by today's standards) and should be 0s & 1s in this sim. In those times, with home runs rare occurrences, runners needed to be on second to score on a single. Also hit-and-run plays (where runners are usually thrown out if the batters do not make contact) were far more common pre-1920.

If those players played today's game, their SB attempts would be way down and their SB% would be way up. Another place where the sim could use normalization.
12/28/2009 5:54 PM
boogerlips
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Quote: Originally Posted By cespencer on 12/28/2009
Also, really fast players beat out a bunch of infield hits, even more if they have excellent contact ratings.
This is a misconception. The success/failure part of the event tree comes before the success/failure type. Fast players are designated IF hits, but are not beating out anything. In other words, if you buy a .300 hitter, regardless of whether he's fast or not, you can expect him to hit .300.
12/28/2009 8:39 PM
joshkvt
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Quote: Originally posted by skinndogg on 12/28/2009My question is when does speed play a role?  To see if a runner beats a throw from the OF home?
Speed plays a big role in all base-running other than stolen bases. Taking extra bases on hits, scoring from third on ground balls, advancing on bunts, avoiding DPs, etc.
12/29/2009 5:41 PM
bagchucker
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if you want to know how good sparky thinks your catcher can nail baserunners, click on Leaders and scroll down to Caught Stealing Percentage. Ignore the percentage. Look at attempts. If they run on your catcher a lot, Sparky thinks you can't cut guys down.

there are two catchers i know of in open leagues who sparky runs on more than he should. he thinks they suck and they keep mowing him down. one can hit. the other is cheap cheap cheap
12/29/2009 6:15 PM
thunder1008
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2/15/2010 12:18 AM
SBs - Speed vs. Percentage Topic
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