Posted by badja on 1/20/2011 10:58:00 AM (view original):
Wow, you went through all that just to agree with the point that I already made (that super high usage guys are important)?   Since this was a theme league, you have to use what you've got available. 

To address your last point (which I would've noticed and noted), ppl rarely played me with a -2.    

I drafted 9500 points and 1300 to's, which I would think would be enough usage. 

As I pointed out, we took 199 3's in the first 42 games and I only drafted 267 total.  If you can't see that is way off, I don't know what else to say. 

And linking to a WIS FAQ is truly hilarious.

A.)  I didn't know all forum replies were supposed to disagree with the opening post.  My mistake for agreeing with you that high usage guys are important.
B.)  I bet people even more rarely played you with a + anything, so having a 0 played against you most of the time with the occasional negative means the average defense against you was negative, meaning you'll end up with more 3PA (not to mention other possible reasons like end of game situations, which is partially the sim's fault because everyone's 3PA/2PA ratio should be slightly lower during most of the game to compensate for real life situations where guys launched 3s to end quarters / games).
C.)  I admittedly went off on a tangent about usage that wasn't necessarily about you - I didn't mean to infer whether or not your team had a high enough usage, just that from posts I've seen in general, it seems like people want guys who shot 48.2% in real life to shoot 48.2% in the sim, and if they took 16.7 FGA per game, they should have that in real life (which was something specifically meant for your example of Fat Lever taking 29 shots and also meant in general for people who freak out about outliers - considering your Fat Lever was averaging 17.2 FGA per game at the time of your post, I'd say nothing crazy was happening).
D.)  Instead of looking at total 3PA, we should look at 3PA/FGA, correct?  Your actual stats: 3.6% of FGA were 3PA, in the sim: 5.0%.  If you were following your actual rate, you would have taken only 144 instead of 199.  An extra 55 3PA over the course of 42 games doesn't seem to be anything outlandish to me (especially given the adjustments that were already discussed - "some" teams playing you with a negative defense and some extra 3s to end games).
E.)  Linking to the WIS FAQ was meant to be funny, so I'm glad you found it hilarious.

144 vs.199 = about 25%.  That easily qualifies as "outlandish".  

You're right though, the SIM works great.  WIS is awesome and we have nothing to complain about.

Posted by malone9975 on 1/20/2011 12:54:00 PM (view original):

The one thing I have stressed to people about real life stats is that you have to look at who you are playing against.  This appears to be part of a league like Gym Rat, and you are playing against All-Stars in every game.  Would a 69-70 Haywood score as well playing against Rodman, Barkley, K Malone, McHale, Duncan, or Garnett for 1/4 to 1/2 of a season?  Usage wouldn't matter since he would most likely be outclassed by these players compared to who he was normally playing against.  Do you think that Red Robbins, Trooper Washington, Bill Bridges, Don Sidle, Bob Netolicky, or John Beasley would compare? 

 

47 mil league so pretty low cap actually.

I understand your point, but in fact he and the rest of the team did fare better than RL considering FG%.  My surprise is why he didn't handle the ball more than RL given the circumstances. 

what was his usage for the season?  Not the "real" one that WIS uses... actually compute it.  If it's around 25%, then it's about right where it "should" be.