Can you win with average pitching? Topic

My 1 TOC victory was probably with the cheapest end-of-season pitching staff I have ever had on a serious OL team, so I dunno if I agree with that entirely.  Although I'm not sure I could replicate that now.  I used to use a 5-man rotation of 200-IP guys with only 1 decent at all.  At the transaction deadline I'd drop the one performing least well and upgrade somewhere else.  This particular team got an expensive Ruth for the middle of the lineup.  Boom.  World Series, TOC.
6/27/2010 8:03 PM
If you dont mind dashdebater, who was one of your non-decent pitchers so I can get an idea of how talent is judged.
6/27/2010 10:34 PM
When doing a players search use ERC#, BB/9#, OAV# and HR/9#. sort by ERC#. that'll give you a good hint. Then fit them in with an appropriate field. ie 08 joss in a hr neutral or + field. Or 00 Pedro in a HR - diamond etc. This is how I do it
6/28/2010 9:12 AM
Posted by zubinsum on 6/27/2010 7:32:00 PM (view original):
I don't think you can win a short series with average pitching unless you get very lucky. The TOC is the tournament of champions. The top 2 teams (i.e. World Series opponents) in every league advance to the TOC. 32 TOC teams play each other in 5-5-5-7-7 series structure. The top 2 teams win WIS credits totaling $250.
I agree that you need luck to win a five game series with average starting pitchers, but it happens.  As a case in point, I recently lost a five game playoff series wherein my very good (and quite expensive) 08 Ed Walsh ($18.3 mil) and 08 Joss ($12.8 mil) were beaten by a very mediocre 95 inning, $ 2.2 mil Irv Young and a AAA starting pitcher.  So it does happen.  Nonetheless, I take my chances and stick with top notch starting pitchers because they can be, and often are, "difference makers".  I currently have one team with 00 Pedro, 95 Maddux and 08 Joss, another with 08 Joss, Ed Cicotte and 02 Taylor, and one with 08 and 10 Walsh and they're all in first place.  So again, me personally, I would rather spend the money on quality and roll the dice.  But hey, to each his own. 
6/28/2010 7:46 PM
As they always say, pitching wins ballgames.
6/28/2010 10:52 PM
Posted by mixtroy on 6/28/2010 7:46:00 PM (view original):
Posted by zubinsum on 6/27/2010 7:32:00 PM (view original):
I don't think you can win a short series with average pitching unless you get very lucky. The TOC is the tournament of champions. The top 2 teams (i.e. World Series opponents) in every league advance to the TOC. 32 TOC teams play each other in 5-5-5-7-7 series structure. The top 2 teams win WIS credits totaling $250.
I agree that you need luck to win a five game series with average starting pitchers, but it happens.  As a case in point, I recently lost a five game playoff series wherein my very good (and quite expensive) 08 Ed Walsh ($18.3 mil) and 08 Joss ($12.8 mil) were beaten by a very mediocre 95 inning, $ 2.2 mil Irv Young and a AAA starting pitcher.  So it does happen.  Nonetheless, I take my chances and stick with top notch starting pitchers because they can be, and often are, "difference makers".  I currently have one team with 00 Pedro, 95 Maddux and 08 Joss, another with 08 Joss, Ed Cicotte and 02 Taylor, and one with 08 and 10 Walsh and they're all in first place.  So again, me personally, I would rather spend the money on quality and roll the dice.  But hey, to each his own. 
Of course it happens...  But you opponent only won because he got lucky, which is exactly my point.
6/29/2010 12:24 AM (edited)
I don't necessarily call it lucky.  In fact, I think it's ridiculous to say that the other team had to "get lucky" to win based solely on starting pitching.  mixtroy paid over $30 million on starting pitching.  That likely left the opponent with dramatically more money for offense and bullpen pitching.  Trying to predict results based solely on starting pitching is taking a ridiculously narrow viewpoint.  As to chisox question about what I call "mediocre" pitchers, I know 2 of the 3 I kept on that TOC team were '07 Chien-Ming Wang and '07 Fausto Carmona.  I THINK the other might have been '07 Roy Halladay.  The "better" pitcher was probably '06 Chris Carpenter.
6/29/2010 1:59 AM
wow, Wang and Carmona.... thanks alot for your input dahsdebater.
6/29/2010 10:13 AM
Well $30mil for the starting pitcher can still spend $11-$13mil on the pen.This leave $39-$37mil for hitters I know I can make that work.And I am very sure that MIXTROY could make this work also.I always spend more on pitching then hitting.Drive for show & put for DOUGH.

6/29/2010 7:53 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 6/29/2010 1:59:00 AM (view original):
I don't necessarily call it lucky.  In fact, I think it's ridiculous to say that the other team had to "get lucky" to win based solely on starting pitching.  mixtroy paid over $30 million on starting pitching.  That likely left the opponent with dramatically more money for offense and bullpen pitching.  Trying to predict results based solely on starting pitching is taking a ridiculously narrow viewpoint.  As to chisox question about what I call "mediocre" pitchers, I know 2 of the 3 I kept on that TOC team were '07 Chien-Ming Wang and '07 Fausto Carmona.  I THINK the other might have been '07 Roy Halladay.  The "better" pitcher was probably '06 Chris Carpenter.
Well I guess it really means what you consider average...  However my opinion is based on the statistical mechanics of a rotation set up.  If we neglect fielding and range for a second, we basicaly can agree that pitchers are to keep runs allowed (RA) down, while the position players are to produce runs scored (RS).  The WIS database is set up so that the cost of one less RA is close to each additional RS.  This means that during the regular season, sacrificing offense for a stud pitcher who throws 250 innings is zero sum.  That is the RS sacrificed more-or-less equals the decreased RA when the pitcher throws 17% the team's innings.  However in the post-season when that same pitcher pitches 26%  to  38% of the team's innings, he is preventing RA in disporportion to the sacrificed RS.
6/29/2010 10:58 PM
next time in Engligh zubinsum =)
6/30/2010 2:25 PM
While your point is well taken dahsdebater, I'd still much rather go into a series with great pitching and a lineup that is both conducive to its ballpark as well as cost effective.  Me personally, and of course I may very well be wrong, but aside from the occasional exception, I don't think $30 mil for starting pitching will get you very far.  I regularly spend between $35-$36 mil and recently won a WS (my first) with a $38.4 mil starting staff (400 inning Pete Alexander, 08 Joss and 05 Carl Lundgren).  So again, IMO great starting pitching (along with a well thought out lineup) can go a long way.  
6/30/2010 7:53 PM
I have a question about drafting...sorry more questions... Do I have to draft 25 players? I also see alot of teams use the minor league players?  So do you draft very low end players as subs and then switch them with AAA guys? Or can you leave the team you drafted even though most of those subs will fatigue fast. Or go for a more balanced team and having quality subs?
6/30/2010 11:19 PM
Yes, your team must have 25 players on it.

In a league with AAA, there is no reason to get any subs at more then 200K if the starter at that position has enough PA to last full-time.

And even if there's a few that aren't quite full-time, the AAA can probably cover it for a few games.

Only reason to spend $$$ on "subs" is if you're actually intending to platoon your two guys, or if you have a tiny amount (say, 100K or so) extra cash left after lineup, rotation, bullpen -- then maybe put the money into a pinch-hitter or pinch-runner.
6/30/2010 11:31 PM (edited)
thanks alot uncleal that helps alot, I'm guessing 500 plus plate appearances is good enough to cover a full time player for the whole year.
6/30/2010 11:38 PM
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