Quote: Originally Posted By ashamael on 2/28/2010
how often do you believe you don't have the superior team, though nc? I've believed I haven't had the superior team and won a few times, but I've also believed I had the superior team (known I had the superior team, every single stat differential and season record, every facet I dominated in) yet still lost. Sim variance.

In more than half of the playoff series I've been in, I think I've had the superior team. I've never thought I had an inferior team once I reached the finals (I'm 9 for 9 in finals in the nba sim). I guess it annoys me that several people on this site keep saying that randomness has more say over the winner of a playoff series than the owner who puts together the superior team. If randomness played such a large role in determining the winner of a playoff series, I couldn't have won as consistently as I have.

In the past I usually tried to defend the SIM too, but I've given up. I can't in my wildest dreams explain how teams that went 8-0 and 7-1 during the regular season each lost 2-4 in their Playoff series, and I'm not even going to try to figure out how a team shoots 13-20 from 3 against a +2 defense. Those things (along with a lot of others) just scream randomness.

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hey what do you know? I just lost a playoff series to a team I think was inferior to mine. It wasn't a big difference, so I don't mind it (as much). This one was believable. Thing that bothers me is that foul trouble is what killed me, when it should have been the other way around. Even Wilt (60-61 version, 1.7 fp48minutes) fouled out one game.

And 67-68 Wilt just fouled out of a regular season game in 24 minutes. And yes, the aggressiveness is set to aggressive.

And as I always like to say, if I thought the sim was solid and operated like it should, I would probably play it more. I, along with presumably many others, have been "wronged" on multiple occasions so much so that I practically have 0 faith in the game. In the end, the sim does what it wants regardless of team composition.

Quote: Originally Posted By ashamael on 3/01/2010(1) maybe randomness IS the reason you've won as consistently as you have.


(2) Just because it ain't happened to you in the few teams you've put out there doesn't mean it doesn't happen to others (frequently) in fact.

(1) That isn't a logical statement.

(2) I don't consider more than 20 teams to be "few".

I'm not exactly sure what I can do (as far as my teams are concerned) to convince you that the better team usually wins a 7 game series.

1) sure it is. You have to think about it to get it, though.

2) sure it is. I don't have much more, but I've seen it happen (in both my favor and in favor of an opponent) much more than that.


There's not much you can do except for you to quit being so certain that you're absolutely 100% correct in every scenario you decide to stick your nose in. I've had the better team and lost playoff series. I've also had the worse team and won them. Both times when there was no logical reason behind it. The only thing that could be pointed to were statistical outliers (ie randomness). And it's happened often enough that many, many owners here have shared my feelings and have said it time and time again, to which you always feel the need to say differently.

Just curious, how do you define 'usually'? Half the time? 75% of the time? 90% of the time? I'd say the sim favors the better team about 57.1% of the time in a seven-game series. To me, that's not usually.

ncmusician - like I said, we won the regular season series 8-0 and lost the playoff series 4-2. One of those has to be an outlier by definition - or both. Either it's ridiculous that I won the season series 8-0, or it's ridiculous that I lost the playoff series 4-2.



Even if you make the argument that the most likely outcome of 14 games between the two teams would be 10-4 in my favor, it would mean that there would be a really, really small chance that all four of those losses would happen to come in the playoff series. It's random, and it's bad luck, no matter which way you slice it.

Quote: Originally posted by ashamael on 3/01/2010Just curious, how do you define 'usually'? Half the time? 75% of the time? 90% of the time? I'd say the sim favors the better team about 57.1% of the time in a seven-game series. To me, that's not usually.

more than 75%

And how many games do you think it takes for normalization to occur?

wonder if this works

hmm

can it be?

Glad to see it, boom!

wont last - they probably made some mistake