Two words in (“my research”) and you have me beat…

No one else is going to post in here? Is everyone waiting for the full strategies thread?

In Round 12 when I saw modern era teams casually drafting $87K/IP P (Hong-Chih Kuo) while I was scrambling to figure out who the best $32K/IP P I could possibly get (apparently, Moe Drabowsky) was, I realized that I probably should have taken Bonds over Mantle in round 1. Prediction: 81-81

Posted by redcped on 9/2/2024 11:19:00 PM (view original):
No one else is going to post in here? Is everyone waiting for the full strategies thread?

I do not remember my thought process at all. I just winged it

Which will make it all the more embarrassing when my team sucks anyway.

Yes - I will wait for the full-season writeups.

Going old school (1966-90) instead of modern limited the number of excellent relief seasons, so I drafted a few relievers early (JR Richard, Eckersley, Rob Murphy) at the expense of my starters.

Otherwise it was all improvised, same as d_rock. Discovering I could take Milacki with my 19th pick was luck, not strategy. I suppose I can start him if I make the playoffs, though losing 90+ is more likely

$255M writeup

1.9 – Barry Bonds. I didn’t really have a strategy going into the draft. Modern players were more abundant and the relief pitching was especially strong. But there was less traffic on the 50’s and 60’s players. All that was out the window when Bonds was still available. He’s the only hitter I would choose at this spot over a pitcher. Koufax and Gibson were available, and I may have very easily gone that way if Bonds was not available. This pick set up the rest of my draft. I’m using the 2004 version which allows me to stretch from 1980-2023.

2.16 – Mike Piazza. I usually go for a “head-and-shoulders” approach to these drafts. Since I didn’t take a pitcher with my first pick, I should probably look for one here right? Well, Piazza is head-and-shoulders better than the other catchers in my range. I’m not particularly worried about stolen bases, so I don’t need a good arm. And if the last round taught me anything, stolen bases are a bit overrated. With that being said, the best hitting catcher is 97 Piazza. This also allows me to stay within 2020 range, where there is a *plethora* of excellent players.

3.9 – Corbin Burnes. Ok, I can’t hold off on a SP anymore. Lamet, Maeda, Lincecum, Bauer, and Schmidt are all taken right before me. Since I missed the top 2020 SP boat, I figure I can wait to take a 2020 player. Schmidt would have been a good pick for me since I’m tracking the other teams and there seems to be a lot of traffic in the early 2000’s. Corbin Burnes is a screaming buy at this point and since I’m using the 2021 version, it allows me to keep 2020 open. The problem is that he only has 167 innings so I’m going to have to use a larger rotation and/or get some good middle relievers. Lastly this sets my range from 1997 to 2021.

4.16 – Miguel Cabrera. He was the last elite hitting 3^rd basemen in my timeframe. I felt there was a bunch of good-fielding but 2^nd tier hitting 3^rd basemen so I couldn’t pass him up. His defense is bad, especially his range, so I’ll have to live with 20 minus plays unless I can find another 3B later and move him to DH. Sidenote- crazy to me that Beltre and Rolen didn’t get drafted until round 9. Nolan Arenado went undrafted. I guess I could have waited for the 3B bus.

5.9 – Blake Snell. Using the 2018 version of him. Bonus, he’s a Tampa Bay Ray.

6.16 – Carlos Delgado. Maybe not one of my smarter picks as I really should be taking a pitcher here. Good-hitting 1^st basemen are generally a dime a dozen. But Carlos does stick out as the best hitter of the bunch. His OBP of .470 is hard to pass up. It is significantly better than the next 1^st baseman. I also didn’t choose a SP because I’m noticing a slowdown of SP being drafted so I feel I can wait a bit. As a sidenote, Paul Goldschmidt was 3^rd on my 1B list after Delgado but didn’t go until the 12^th round. What a steal.

7.9 – Stephen Strasburg. Zero starting pitchers were taken between my last pick and this pick. However, I’m still drafting my SP3 in round 7 so I’m behind the curve here. He’s nothing great and I do have some regret. I was also eyeing Josh Hamilton who would go later this round.

8.16 – Robinson Cano. I saw early on that there were no standout 2^nd basemen within my timeframe. Redcped had taken Roberto Alomar earlier in this round so I knew the run was coming. Cano is the most expensive 2^nd baseman in my timeframe so I took him. I was correct about the run on 2^nd basemen as four of them were taken between 8.16 and 8.24 which apparently frustrated Schwarze.

9.9 – Kris Medlen. Ok so here is where I go off the beaten path. There’s a lot of SPs within the 2.00-2.20 ERC# range so there’s no hurry to grab a 4^th starter. There’s also a lot of sub 1.50 ERC# relievers, but they all have IP/Gs around 1. What there aren’t a lot of are RPs with an IP/G of 2+ with a sub 1.90 ERC# and over 90 innings within my timeframe. In fact, I only saw Medlen, Devenski, Gonsolin, and Plesac. Since I’m low on innings, it’s important for me to grab some good middle relievers. Gonsolin is a Dodger so I can’t take him and Plesac is a guy I feel I can wait on (I’m tracking 2020 players taken). But Medlen and Devenski are not so they are must-haves. I draft Medlen, who has 30 more IP than Devenski.

10.16 – Chris Devenski. I thought someone would see what I was doing and try to take Devenski, but alas no one did or I’m an idiot and so I draft the other Long A. I need those innings. This is actually a huge relief for me to close this hole.

11.9 – Jacoby Ellsbury. No, I don’t value fielding and range very highly in the outfield either. However, he’s just as good of a hitter as the other outfielders left. So yeah, I’ll take the defense too. I was looking at him and Beltran but I like Ellsbury a little more since he has about 100 more PA. I wanted to take him a couple of rounds earlier. I’m glad I waited.

12.16 – Rich Harden. 4^th starter time. 2.07 ERC# for a 12^th round pick ain’t bad. He’s also a Cub or an Athletic and I can decide which one he’ll be later on. (He’ll be a Cub)

13.9 – Carlos Beltran. I can see why no one has taken him due to his relatively low batting average and OBP. However, he’s a switch hitter with speed, power and defense.

14.16 – Jeff Zimmerman. An unexciting yet much needed setup man. Plus, it’s 1999 where there are still a lot of teams have open. I had wanted Palmeiro to be my 1B and move Delgado to DH, but dubbigcat snagged earlier in the round. At this point, I’m just going through each undrafted season and looking for guys that I would take that for that season. I was also thinking of taking Zach Plesac here, but d_rock97 nabs him right before me. That’s ok, I got some other 2020 players that I’m eyeing.

15.9 – Rheal Cormier. Just like Zimmerman, I need another Setup A guy. He’s solid and from a year where there weren’t a lot of great choices (2003) which is how I’m now choosing players. Gotta make sure I get the standout players from seasons where talent was scarce and where other teams still had that season open.

16.31 – Trevor Story. I found some rounds ago that no one else could take him due to a Rockies or 2019 restriction. I was going to take him with my 26^th pick just to show off (hey I got my starting SS with the last pick in the draft suckas!). But then there was all this talk about “calling an audible” and then Schwarze said he knew exactly what was being talked about. So I got nervous. I still don’t know what they were talking about, but I took Story here because if I didn’t get him, the next best SS was a big drop down. 16.32 – Jason Bay. This was a mistake. He’s going to push Bonds to DH and play LF. He’s nothing special and I could have waited to take him or a guy like him. I should have taken Keuchel.

17.17 – Adam Wainwright. Because I was going to 2020 Dallas Keuchel here. But barracuda took him right in front of me ostensibly for his 2015 season *shaking fist angrily*. When I was going over my spreadsheet, I knew that no one else could take 2020 Keuchel except me. However, I knew there was a chance that barracuda could take his 2015 season and sure enough he did exactly that. Keuchel was going to be my 5^th starter. I ended up with Wainwright, who is not as good and will likely be my swingman because I still do need the innings. 17.18 – Heath Bell. Seems like a steal this late.

18.31 Mike Redmond – because when you sort by OPS# for catchers, he’s near the top. Will backup Piazza. 18.32 - Liam Hendriks. Using my 2020 pick. If Kimbrel was drafted in Rd 7, Hendriks should be a steal in Rd 21. He’ll be my closer. I also considered Brad Keller to kick Wainwright to the Long B spot but quality over quantity was more important here.

19.17 – Greg Colbrunn because he has the highest OPS to back up Bonds at DH. 19.18 -Memorial Stadium since it’s slightly pitcher-friendly while not taking away from my home-run heavy lineup.

20.46 – Eduardo Nunez, 20.47 Adam Dunn, 20.48 Jarrod Washburn – to backup the infield specifically Miguel Cabrera, to pinch hit and because 1473 innings might not be enough.

Hitters: 6825 PA, .321/.420/.596
Pitchers: 1611 IP, 0.198 OAV, 0.97 WHIP, 0.54 HR/9

I ended up going on a hot streak and moved into fourth place overall (in round 1), one spot in front of barracuda3... which turned out to be not so great for this draft as barracuda3 sniped me on more than one occasion. Not sure if I ever sniped him.

1.04 Kevin Brown (1996 Marlins)
The top 3 picks were no brainers in my opinion, Pedro, Maddux and Arrieta. I strongly considered taking Jacob deGrom here (he went at 1.05), but I didn't want to restrict my years range that soon. I was 99% certain that I was taking a pitcher. If I had taken a hitter, I probably would've gone with Mantle over Bonds to get the switch hitter his great defense. Mantle went 1.08. Bonds went 1.09. This first pick is so important. Guys like Gibson (1.11), Sutton (1.12), Kershaw (1.13) and Koufax (1.15) are all great options, but I was looking for a franchise that way fewer usable players on it. I landed on 1996 Kevin Brown and the Marlins. I feel pretty good about this pick as there are all sorts of great options between 1972 and 2020. I can take my time to see where others are drafting before I commit to the full 25 years. I probably get Brown at 1.05... I should've lost a couple of regular season games to stay at pick #5.
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2.21 Chipper Jones (1998 Braves)
17 pitchers were taken in the first round. And another 14 were taken before my turn here. That's 31 pitchers in 44 picks. I was considering Jason Schmidt here, but 2003 had some other guys I was thinking about taking later (Tim Hudson or Eric Gagne). I also considered Alex Rodriguez to check off another tough-to-fill franchise. But I have to get one of my favorite switch hitters. I was planning on using his 2008 season, but needed to change it late in the draft. I knew this pick would provide seasonal flexibility. Note that using 2008 Chipper would chop off the 1970's and early 1980's but that's ok, b/c I really wanted to keep the mid-to-late 1980's open, especially 1985.
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3.04 Tim Lincecum (2009 GIants)
Jason Schmidt went to 06gsp at 2.23. It's appears that the teams picking 1-2-3-4-5 are are all going to be drafting from roughly the same time frame. Even assuming that I use 2008 Chipper, I would still have 1985 open and almost picked '85 Hershiser here, but didn't want to use my Dodgers pick this early. I chose 2009 Tim Lincecum due to his low HR rate. With Brown and Lincecum, I was going to build a pitching staff that would lead the league in fewest HRs allowed, since everybody will have modern players.
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4.21 Jake Peavy (2007 Padres)
Continuing with the low HRs allowed theme, my top choices here were '07 Peavy, '03 Tim Hudson, '93 Appier, I wanted Hudson, but if I took him, I lose the opportunity to take '03 Gagne. Both Peavy and Appier fall near my current years range of 1996-2009. I went with Peavy although in retrospect, I should have taken Hudson. I like Hudson better, and I missed a bunch of guys I could've taken later due to 2007 being locked in. I almost pivoted to Peavy's 2nd best year to have access to 2007.
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5.04 Kevin Appier (1993 Royals)
Tim Hudson went one pick after I took Peavy, immediately making me regret my Peavy pick. Lance Berkman went next, who I also really wanted but didn't think he'd go this early. I forgot this is a sharp group of drafters. I figured that it's too early to take outfielders with so many good choices. I am hoping to grab Bernie Williams in the next couple of rounds. Since I started this low-HR-allowed pitcher strategy, I might as well commit fully and grab 1993 Kevin Appier. I didn't realize it at the time, by using 1993, I really missed out on some great values late in the draft ('93 Rick Wilkins didn't get drafted).
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6.21 Eric Gagne (2003 Dodgers)
Amazingly, the two guys I want here are still on the board, Bernie Williams and Eric Gagne. A quick look at the three teams drafting behind me says that there is no way Gagne comes back, so I will have to gamble that Bernie Williams comes back. Even if he doesn't, there are a ton of outfielders left, and a bunch of Yankees options. The downside of taking Gagne is that his inflated salary will almost certainly put me in the National League with Maddux, Pedro and Bonds. I go with Gagne and discodemo takes Bernie with the very next pick. Damn, this is a tough draft.
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7.04 Ken Griffey Jr. (1994 Mariners)
Six rounds in and I have only one batter. I better get a good hitter or I won't score any runs and my low-HR pitching staff will lose games 3-2. I strongly considered taking Jose Reyes here, but there are a number of shortstops out there that I could live with, so I grabbed Ken Griffey Jr. He has a few other years I could use, but I never waivered off his 1994 season.
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8.21 Craig Biggio (1997 Astros)
This is where the wheels come off. I've been eyeing Jorge Posada since I made my last pick. I've also been looking at the 2B position. Normally, I wait until my pick to finalize who I'm taking... but this round, I determined 4-5 picks before my turn that I was taking Posada. Boom.... barracuda3 takes Posada. Also, a bunch of the 2B that I was considering got taken this round, including Alomar, Cano and LeMahieu. At one point early in the draft, I had decided to wait on 2B and take a switch-hitter like Tony Phillips or Brian Roberts later (Roberts never got drafted). I also had been keeping an eye on Garret Richards, another ultra low HR starting pitcher who would fill in the missing SP innings I needed. But for some reason, I just ignored all of that and grabbed Biggio, mainly for his A+ range (which I would need with my low-slugging-but-high-obp pitchers). As soon as Richards went to discodemo on the next pick, I new I had made a mistake.
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9.04 Manny Ramirez (1999 Indians)
This was another "I-am-worried-I don't-have-enough-hitting" panic pick. Although Manny has a bunch of good seasons, I kind of locked myself into his 1999 Indians season, since I already have my Dodger. And his Red Sox seasons are mostly DH-only due to D- range. By the way, it was about this time that I figured out that I could wait and take Ozzie Smith really late as nobody that needed a SS could take a St. Louis version. But that would add another six years to my range and shut me out of the mid 2010's. I also figured out that I could wait forever on the Red Sox John Valentin, so basically I didn't need to decide on my SS for quite a while.
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10.21 Mariano Rivera (2005 Yankees)
Once again, I finally made up my mind on which player I was taking when I was about 4-5 picks away. I was all set to take Victor Martinez. I probably would've have used his 2014 season as my DH (since Manny's 1999 fielding is not terrible: C/D+), but was going to keep the option open to use his 2011 catching season. Then barracuda3 screws me again, taking V-Mart *one* pick in front of me. What the hell did I ever do to him? Why does he have it in for me? Instead of making a panic pick, I went and ate dinner and contemplated what I should do next.

I finally got my head straight and made a decent pick with Mariano Rivera. He has so many good season to use, it really helped me later in the draft. I was determined to wait and find a reasonable catcher platoon (i.e., Carlos Ruiz and Charles Johnson). That '93 Appier pick kept me from taking Chris Hoiles or Rick Wilkins.
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11.04 B.J. Ryan (2006 Blue Jays)
So far, through ten rounds, I have 4 SPs, 2 RPs, 2B, 3B, OF, OF. I am waiting at catcher and shortstop. I should probably look at 1B, but with so many people on the Red Sox, I figured that I could get 1998 Mo Vaughn late. But one guy I was eyeing is Paul Goldschmidt. He has a very good 2013 and 2015 season, but making that pick now would knock out the late 1980's players from consideration, so then I wouldn't get '87 Ozzie Smith, and may have to settle for John Valentin (Bos) or Carlos Guillen (Det) who I started looking at after losing V-Mart. But I already had a couple of other Red Sox players in the queue. I grabbed B.J. Ryan here b/c wanted one of the best lefty RPs available and his A+/B defense is a bonus. I hate the fact that almost all modern RPs have D-/D- fielding ratings. This pick did kill 2006 for me, which had a lot of guys I wanted later (including '06 Carlos Guillen). But at least I have 3 RPs who can get guys out late in the game.
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12.21 Charles Johnson (2000 White Sox)
I learned my lesson. I am not locking in on my player until it's my turn to pick. I see that Goldschmidt went to jborhman at 12.18. Glad I didn't lock in on him ahead of time. That's a nice pick this late. This is a giant puzzle. I really want C Carlos Ruiz but am also considering SS Jimmy Rollins. I want Mo Vaughn at 1B but am also considering SS John Valentin and P Clay Buchholz. I still need a third OF and a DH. I've been eyeing both 2017 Carlos Gonzalez and 1992 Andy Van Slyke. But I can't take both. What do I do here? I review what the guys in front of me can take. I decide to get Ruiz' platoon partner first since Charles Johnson has a combined season with the Orioles and White Sox (both teams I need). More flexibility - yay!
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13.04 Mark Teixeira (2008 Angels)
Well, I really wanted another switch hitter and losing out on Goldschmidt got me to switch Chipper Jones' season from 2008 to 1998. I thought about moving Chipper's season to 2001 and playing him at DH, but there wasn't really a 3B worth picking that would be better than whatever DH I decided on later. I am of course using Teixeira's 2008 combined season from the Angels. Slight downgrade at 3B but at least I don't need to worry about finding a backup 3B to fill in those missing PAs that 2008 Chipper would have required.
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14.21 Bobby Bonilla (1995 Mets)
I was planning on using 1995 Bonilla all along, despite all the rhetoric I sprewed in the forums after making this pick. Having both the Orioles & the Mets available gives me even more flexibility. Note that my years range is still 1993 thru 2009, easily the narrowest range at this point in the draft.
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15.04 Clay Buchholz (2013 Red Sox)
I wanted a guy who could be my long reliever (i.e., IP/G > 5) but who also could start a few games, when needed. This was the perfect guy and I waited long enough. Another low-HR pitcher for my staff. With the Red Sox the board, I guess this locks in Carlos Guillen as my starting shortstop. Only one guy can take him and I pick before him.

To be continued.

Continued...
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16.41 Carlos Guillen (2004 Tigers)
16.42 Carlos Ruiz (2012 Phillies)
Thru 15 picks, I still haven't committed to a full 25-year era yet - we're still showing years 1993 thru 2009. At this point, I'm pretty sure I know what I am going to do, but decided to keep everybody (who is tracking it) in the dark for one more round. I do like Carlos Gullen, but his 2004 season is a bit short on PA, so I will need to get a backup to start a dozen or so games. Ruiz gives me two solid catchers: Charles Johnson with a .961 OPS and Ruiz with a.934 ops.
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17.07 Charlie Blackmon (2017 Rockies)
17.08 Kyle Hendricks (2016 Cubs)
Well, there was a pretty decent chance that both of these guys would have been available later, but I didn't want to take any chances. Blackmon may end up being one of my best hitters (if Performance Review results means anything). HIs B+/B outfield defense is the best on the team, so he will start in CF. Hendricks' 0.71 hr/9 is the highest on my team but getting a starting pitcher with a sub 1.00 whip and 2.14 erc# seemed like a steal this late in the draft. This means I can use Clay Buchholz solely as a long reliever. With these two picks, I finally locked in my years range (1993-2017). I don't need much else. The rest of the picks will include some pitching depth, a backup SS and a backup outfielder who can play defense (for Manny).
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18.41 Joel Hanrahan (2011 Pirates)
18.42 Francisco Cordero (2002 Rangers)
Going into this pick, I still needed 2001, 2002, 2010, 2011, 2014, 2015. I have 1451 innings, but only 9 pitchers so I wanted to add some pitchers that wouldn't kill me. Francisco Cordero only has 46 innings, but has a solid 1.98 erc# and fills my Texas slot. Hanrahan has 69 innings with a 2.01 erc# and a very low HR rate. Filling 2002 meant that I wasn't going to be able to add an expensive ($6.6M) Miguel Tejada to supplement PAs at shortstop. I was trying to save salary to avoid playing in the highest division, and maybe even get into the A.L. In retrospect, this may have been a mistake.
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19.07 Jamie Garcia (2015 Cardinals)
19.08 Yankee Stadium III
I badly wanted a LHSP and I had Garcia in my queue for a number of rounds (I knew I'd get him, so I waited until now). A SP with a 2.33 erc# with low HR rate certainly will have some value vs certain teams. He will also represent my second lefty out of the bullpen. Of course, I had to take Yankee Stadium III to take advantage of all the power hitters I drafted (roughly 300 HRs in my starting lineup). And my pitchers won't allow many homeruns.
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20.61 Danny Santana (2014 Twins)
20.62 Lorenzo Cain (2010 Brewers)
20.63 D.T. Cromer (2001 Reds)
With this last pick, I didn't really know what I was going to do, even when it was my turn. I strongly considered switching 2005 Rivera to 2010, then switching my '95 Mets Bonilla to the '95 Orioles version, then adding 2005 Juan Padilla (Mets). Padilla has a 1.57 erc# with 1.01 whip and zero HRs allowed. He's even at 1.5 IP/G. But his 3.2 bb/9 is a little higher than I like and he only has 37 innings. Changing from '05 Rivera to '10 Rivera would have saved $1.3 million in salary, but I lose 13 innings and 2010 is a downgrade stats-wise. Then I'd need to find a 2001 defensive OF. At the end of the day, it wasn't worth it.

Anyway, Danny Santana will spell Carlos Guillen at SS, is a switch hitter who can hit a little bit (.319, .353, .472). His A/D- rating at SS isn't ideal, but it's only a few games. Lorenzo Cain is a cheap defensive replacement (C+/A-) for Manny Ramirez and can also hit a little bit (.306 avg). Cromer was selected mostly as a salary saver, but he does have a .596 slugging% (5 HRs in 57 ABs) which isn't too bad for a $359K salary.

Team Total Offensive Stats
.319 avg, .403 obp, .576 slug

Team Total Pitching Stats (best 1450 innings)
.202 oav, 0.99 erc, 8.8 k/9, 2.4 bb/9, 0.40 hr/9

Outlook:
I do think my offense turned out ok considering 5 of my first 6 picks were pitchers. Every single starting batter (including both catchers) have slugging percentages over .500, three guys are over .600. But the team is not completely dependent on HRs. All my guys are .300+ hitters, six guys over .318 so I should be able to score enough runs in negative HR parks. I also will be starting 4 switch hitters (would've been 5 except that damn barracuda3).

My defense is above average, although not as dominant as I'd like. Biggio is my only A+ range defender, but I have a bunch of A, A- or B range guys. Chipper is an A/C at 3B which is fine because bad fielding 3B tend to make a bunch of errors (I'd much rather have an A/C at 3B then C/A).

I really like my pitching staff - very few HRs allowed, so you will need 3 hits to score a run. I have 3 really good RPs (Gagne, Rivera, Ryan) so maybe I won't blow too many 9th inning leads. Fun stat - In the years 1993 thru 2017 (my 25 years), there are only 13 starting pitchers with at least 200 innings, an erc# < 2.25 and a hr/9 < 0.50. Pedro, Maddux & Arrieta were picked 1-2-3. Of the other 10 pitchers, I have 4 of them.

Prediction: 87-75

This draft didn't turn out as I planned. I definitely didn't have enough time to plan things out, and my brilliant plan backfired.

Round 1 - Sandy Koufax

Having the 15th pick isn't ideal - miss out on all the top players and also don't really know enough about the draft to plan without having several people maybe jumping into the same era as me. When Sandy Koufax fell all the way to me, I figured he was an easy choice. 4 of the 14 teams who picked before me were likely to be in the same era (Brett, Mantle, Gibson, Sutton), and Sandy gave me the flexibility to go anywhere from 53 to 89.

Round 2 - Dean Chance

Picking Chance was also a really easy pick - just a year before Sandy and on a scarce team, so keeping lots of flexibility. At least in the draft. Having a guy with 279 IP and a guy with 336 makes it hard to build a rotation, but in a league where there's really no cap and use all 25 players, I figured I could work it out. Several teams after me went after the 60s and 70s (Seaver, Drysdale, Vida, Tiant, McLain). Nice pick by gworear on the turn to pick Bieber and isolate himself from the 8 teams around him that were in a totally different era.

Round 3 - Norm Cash

Still keeping my options open, picking a 61 to go with a 64 and a 65. Most of the teams around me seemed to be trending later. I really wanted Robin Yount but figured if all the shortstops went, I could consider pivoting to the 50s.

Round 4 - Al Rosen

I couldn't pull the trigger on Yount, even though he was still there. I did the math and looked briefly at the 50s players, and I thought I could make it work. A top 4 of Koufax/Chance/Cash/Rosen seemed like a really good start, and it looked like I'd almost have my pick of the early players. I just had to walk the tightrope to make sure I didn't run out of years where the "new" franchises exist.

Round 5 - Frank Robinson

Really a good hitter who fits into the early 60s, with some flexibility to use the Orioles if necessary.

Rounds 6-8 - Roger Nelson, Nellie Fox, Dale Murray

Was I going too early for outlier franchises? I figured that there were lots of good players from the big name teams and I could get them later. Nelson fits into the rotation... somehow... and Murray gives me a good reliever, when I know relievers are going to be hard playing in an early era. Lots of people in my time frame already had Astros, so I knew I'd have a good SP there. Around this time I realized that Klu and Kaline shouldn't be on my draft board since I had used their teams. I started looking at outfielders and wanted Carty or Clemente soon. (Roberto being one of my favorite all time players to boot.)

Rounds 9-10 - Rico Carty and Ron Reed

I was kind of thinking of Darrell Evans at 3B, so now I had a hole there. I figured Carty was more important than Roberto, so I picked him in round 9. Then in round 10, I was thinking Eddie Mathews, and had some other guys filled in, but I was worried about the bullpen. Ron Reed 76 looked really good. My notes say "Going to go with Reed. Need a lot of innings. I am almost positive I can use a 76 PHI pick and still have enough years to draft the weird teams" - spoiler alert, that was not true.

Rounds 11-14 - Reggie Smith, Larry Dierker, Toby Harrah, Bill Dailey

Roberto went before my pick at round 11, and then I figured I'd platoon Reggie Smith and Elmer Valo as a replacement. (Then I thought, wait Valo plays for KC. Then only too late did I realize, yes, but the KC Athletics. Oops.) So I picked Reggie Smith and his good 73 BOS season, then Larry Dierker to get my HOU SP, took Harrah who I had pencilled in at SS forever, and then took Dailey since I needed a reliever.

Rounds 15-17 - Merv Rettenmund, Frank Linzy, Joe Cunningham, Enrique Romo, Elmer Valo

Hey, Valo made it onto the team after all! Rettenmund 71 was going to platoon with Cunningham in my super OBP DH partnership. Then later I realized I needed my last 2 1970s seasons for other franchises so I had to punt him back to bench duty. Linzy was the best RP I could find. Same for Romo, who I needed to use to fill my 1977 SEA/TOR spot. Valo was the replacement for Rettenmund when I kicked him to the bench.

Wrapping up - Yogi Berra, Roy Face, Johnny Jeter, Bill Castro

Yogi was also penciled in forever. Another one of my all-time faves - at least I got one. Face was a solid RP from the Pirates I never used. Right around this time I realized I had written in 71/76 for my last 2 teams, and left Ron Reed off of my list. Which meant that the only way I could easily find to make a legal team was to move Rosen up to 1954 and take a 1978 player. Ouch. Maybe there was another solution, I'm not sure.

In hindsight, obviously if I would have kept track of things better, I think this team could still have been a powerhouse picking the early years. But given that I didn't really have the time to devote to it, I probably should have kept it simpler and just used the core 60s guys and gone into the 80s with everyone else.

Here's what I've got:

Sp1 Koufax65 336ip 0.86whip 0.70/116hr .186oav# 2.02bb# 7.81ip/g 1.67erc#
Sp2 Dierker69 306ip 1.02whip 0.53/143hr .220oav# 2.10bb# 7.83ip/g 2.21erc#
T3a Roger Nelson72 183ip 0.87whip 0.68/94hr .208oav# 1.65bb# 5.10ip/g 1.88erc#
T3b Chance64 279ip 1.01whip 0.23/422hr .203oav# 2.79bb# 6.05ip/g 1.83erc#

SUA Murray74 71ip 0.99whip 0.13/510hr .191oav# 2.85bb# 2.18ip/g 1.67erc#
SUA Ron Reed 128ip 0.94whip 0.56/102hr .197oav# 2.26bb# 2.17ip/g 1.84erc#
SUA Bill Dailey 110ip 0.91whip 0.75/124hr .216oav# 1.61bb# 1.65ip/g 1.89erc#
SUB Frank Linzy 96ip 1.06whip 0.38/181hr .210oav# 3.38bb# 1.68ip/g 2.15erc#
SUB Enrique Romo 115ip 1.15whip 0.63/142hr .225oav# 3.07bb# 1.97ip/g 2.73erc#
SUB Roy Face 121ip 1.06whip 0.86/98hr .230oav# 2.30bb# 1.69ip/g 2.50erc#
SUB Bill Castro 50ip 1.15whip 0.36/207hr .234oav# 2.53bb# 1.18ip/g 2.78erc#


DH Cunningham59 585pa 346/455/469 ... B+/D- at 1B, C/D- at OF
LF/CF Robby 701pa A/C+ 343/422/619
1B Cash 672pa B/C 365/486/656
RF Carty 560pa C/D+ 369/453/579
3B Rosen54 596pa B/C 303/402/511
CF/LF RSmith 495pa B/A+ 304/398/516 (B-/A+ 1B) and Valo55 356pa B+/C 366/456/485
C Berra56 629pa B-/B+/B 299/371/528
SS Harrah 631pa B-/B 296/404/460
2B Fox47 756pa A-/A+ 321/404/415

OF Rettenmund68 85pa A+/D- 315/470/492
OF Johnny Jeter71 80pa C/A+ 326/344/422
C Cal Neeman 238pa B+/B-/B- 259/337/461
UT Chuck Hiller 277pa 283/340/350 ... B/D at 2B, B-/D at 3B, B-/D+ at OF

1.17 Ron Guidry (1978 Yankees):
An ace starting pitcher is the most important player on my team because they will have the most individual batter-pitcher matchups of any player. I was the 17th pick, so all the really great starting pitchers were already picked. I was specifically looking for 240 IPs or more and an ERC# of less than 2.00. I knew I wanted to pick a player year in the 1970s or later so the sluggers of the late 1990s were available to fill the position player slots later in the draft. 1978 Ron Guidry was the only player who met all the criteria. He had a year that was as dominant as any pitcher between 1953-2023 with greater than 250 innings pitched. A bonus was his 8.43# strikeouts per 9 innings pitched. I was very satisfied with this pick. (Grade A)

2.08 Derek Lowe (2002 Red Sox):
I fully intended selecting a good #2 starter for my 2nd round pick. Specifically, I was looking for a pitcher with at least 200 IPs, a WHIP# less than 1.00 and a low HR#. 2002 Derek Lowe was the only pitcher left who met all my criteria and was in the window available to me. Most impressively, Lowe had a HR# of 0.36. This pick locked me in for the time frame of 1978 to 2002. I actually didn’t mind restricting myself this early, because it allowed me to plan my future picks and strategy. I was satisfied with this pick. (Grade A)

3.17 Jeff Bagwell (1994 Astros):
For the 3rd pick I wanted a slugger to anchor the middle of my lineup. With his BA#=.365, SLG#=.737 and OPS#=1.186, 1994 Bagwell was the best slugger available, not named Bonds or Mantle. As a bonus, Bagwell was a decent fielder at first base (C+/B-), with some speed (69). I was satisfied with this pick. (Grade A-)

4.08 Luis Gonzales (2001 Diamondbacks):
I was looking specifically for Mike Piazza or Nomar Garciaparra. Both are players at key positions with superior hitting, but they were already picked. Luis Gonzales had BA#=.326, OBP#=.427, SLG#=.668, OPS#=1.096 with 728 PAs. He will make a very solid number 3 hitter. Although Gonzo only has D+ range, he has a perfect 1.000 fielding Pct. A nice addition to my team. (Grade B+)

5.17 Mike Norris (1980 Athletics):
I was looking for a viable 3rd starter in this pick, but got a number 4 starter instead. All the better starters within my year range were already gone. I was getting some pitcher fatigue death spiral anxiety from a horrible past experience that I don’t want to talk about. Norris has 285 innings pitched and an amazing 8.62 IP per game. I am hoping that his IP/G makes up for his mediocre WHIP#=1.04 and HR#=0.51. I probably should have waited another round for this pick, but really wanted to get those IPs filled out on the early rounds. (Grade C-)

6.08 Knoblauch (1996 Twins): I wanted to get a middle infield position filled here with a good hitter; a high OBP and greater than 650 PA. I was impressed with Chuck Knoblauch’s BA#=.332 and OBP#=.436 and lots of extra base hits at the 2nd base position with 701 PA. I will likely bat him second in the order against lefties, but probably after Gonzo against righties. His only big weakness is a D+ range factor which will probably add up to 20+ poor plays (Grade C)

7.17 Lenny Dykstra (1990 Phillies): I was looking for a defensive center fielder with the range to rack up some good plays. I really wanted Fred Lynn, but he went early in the draft. With Dykstra I probably exchanged too many offensive runs scored for defensive runs saved (3.00 OF Range Factor). A BA#=.329 and OBP#=.422 is not horrible for a defensive center fielder, but I may end up regretting not having some more slugging here. A lefty with 691 PA, I will probably bat him second in the order against right handed pitching and toward the bottom of the order against lefties. (Grade C-)

8.08 Larkin (1990 Reds):
Good hitting/fielding infielders were disappearing quickly, so I wanted to get my infield filled out. I picked Larkin because he had a number of decent years to choose from. This is the point in the draft where I had to start planning which teams and years were still open. Larkin gave me options. I would have preferred to have his 1995 year with 51 SB and only 3 CS, or his 33 HR year, but neither end up working out with the remainder of the draft picks. (Grade D+)

9.17 Pendleton (1991 Braves):
As in the previous pick, I was trying to get my infield finalized. I really wanted Caminiti, and would have picked him in the 3rd round if redcped didn’t draft him just before my turn. I considered taking a risk here and almost picked Matt Williams 1995 half season; BA#=.335, SLG#=1.033 and A+ range. I just didn’t want to coordinate picking a platoon pair. 1991 Terry Pendleton is no 1996 Ken Caminit, but he also is a switch hitter, has A+ (3.80) range, a BA#=.326, lots of extra base hits and won the NL MVP. Pendleton’s only weakness is an OBP#=.369, which is low for this high salary league. (Grade C)

10.08 D Martinez (1992 Expos): I needed one more starter to finalize my rotation. Dennis Martinez was the best starter left with adequate innings in my year range. In retrospect, I probably would have selected that last starter before finalizing my infield or tandem starters with lower WHIP. I think D. Martinez WHIP#=1.06, HR/9#=.45 will probably get lit up. (Grade D)

11.17 C Hoiles (1993 Orioles):
If anyone has gotten this far, you will observe a pattern of decreasing confidence in the quality of my picks. That is not the case here. I was really pleased to get Chris Hoiles; BA#=.308, OBP#=.411, SLG#=.983 and A-/A/A+ defense. I also considered Rick Wilkins of the 1993 Cubs who had slightly lower offensive stats, but was comparable and a lefty. The only weakness with C Hoiles is only 503 PAs, but that is to be expected with catchers (Grade A).

12.08 Doug Jones (1997 Brewers):
The run on closers had started the last round and I didn’t want be left with no good relief pitchers. Doug Jones is decent WHIP#=0.85, HR/9#0.40 with 81 IPs.

13.17 Tim Salmon (1995 Angels):
My strategy for winning pivots on picking good hitters with power from the middle and late 1990s in 13th and 14th rounds of the draft to finish my lineup. The theory is that this league will have higher HR totals because of the 1953 cut off. There won’t be any deadball pitchers with HR/9# of 0.00 to 0.05. Salmon is a BA#=.325, OBP#=.421 and an OPS#=.992 and a good fielder (B+/B). The grade here depends on whether Salmon is able to hit some HRs in this league.

14.08 Palmeiro (99 Rangers): The rationale is the same for Palmiero as for Salmon above. Palmiero has BA#=.317, OBP#=.410 and an OPS#=1.012. If he can hit some HRs I will consider the pick a success. A bonus with Palmiero is his A/B+ fielding at first base. That is good enough to move Bagwell to the DH slot.

15-25 The remainder of picks were making sure I have plenty innings, a back up catcher and some hitting subs.
Rincon, Montgomery, Randy Myers, Hassey, Rod Craig, P Wilson, Rozema, Hammaker, Jeff D Robinson, Fishlim

Predicted Record 69-93

255M – 1,000 White Hot Suns
The round 1 regular season ended with me in second place overall. Looking ahead to this theme, it seemed obvious to me that Pedro and Maddux would be the top two picks in this draft, and I was happy that I’d presumably get one of them. Then the playoffs happened. Four of my five teams lost in the first round, and the other lost in the second, dropping me all the way to fifth place, fatefully behind schwarze.

Round 1 – Jacob deGrom
Once it became apparent that I wouldn’t be picking in the top two I decided that I wanted to be at the modern end of the timetable. I definitely wanted to be able to pick players at least as late as 2020, and quite possibly all the way to 2023, since there would be plenty of modern players (Maddux, for example) whose selections would prevent going that late and so the number of teams picking 2021-2023 would be low. Obviously I would’ve liked Arrieta, but equally obviously he went third overall. I honestly don’t know what I would’ve done if schwarze had taken deGrom. I don’t think I ever seriously considered Bonds, but who knows? Anyway, in most drafts, you can’t win the league with your first pick but you can lose it with your first pick. I think deGrom was pretty safe here.

As an aside, I would’ve considered taking a player from the earlier end of the spectrum if the divisional alignment had been chronological rather than salary-based. My fear was that if too many people chose earlier timeframes the talent would be diluted so much that there would be no way to compete with the modern teams, and obviously at #5 it was too early to tell whether that would happen. I wasn’t convinced that a salary-based alignment would duly compensate for this because having fewer franchises to choose from might mean having to draft too many PAs and IPs to get the players you want, leading to a disproportionately higher total team salary. Of course, there being so many smart people in this draft, the chronological distribution of teams ended up being pretty much optimized.

Round 2 – Kenta Maeda
This might have been a panic pick. Once the second round began, I looked ahead and hoped that somehow Dinelson Lamet would make it back to me. As often happens, he made it all the way back…until the last pick where he could’ve gone before mine. I had been so locked in on Lamet that I felt I needed to take a pitcher in his absence. Maeda has an amazing ERC# (1.40) but the elephant in the room is obviously his homers allowed (0.82 HR/9+). Still, I thought he was the best available. There was going to be no lack of quality available in this draft, especially on the modern end of the timetable, so his relative lack of innings didn’t concern me; my mantra in this draft was quality over quantity. There was only one position player who I considered here, but it seemed like the pitching run might continue so I hoped he would make it back to my third pick. In hindsight I wish I had taken him. That player, of course, was Chipper Jones, who schwarze nabbed with the very next pick. Not only do I think my team would’ve been better with Chipper, especially since third base ended up being my lineup’s weak link, but my team name likely would’ve ended up being 100,000, or even 1,000,000 White Hot Suns.

Round 3 – Corey Kluber
Chipper being off the board (along with Nomar and A-Rod, the other two position players I would’ve considered here), I thought the value at this pick was still at starting pitcher. To me Kluber was the best available in my timeframe, and I never seriously considered anyone else.

Round 4 – Jason Giambi
600 IP in with no offensive players, I decided to grab the best hitter available. The fact that he was at a strong offensive position was unfortunate but didn’t dissuade me. I needed an anchor for my lineup, and he was the guy.

Round 5 – Corey Seager
Clearly the best offensive shortstop on the board, a lefty hitter and an A/B+ glove to boot. Yeah, he only has 536 PAs, but hit him 9^th and you only need 70 PAs of backup. Quality over quantity.

Round 6 – Christian Yelich
More quality over quantity, and the perfect leadoff hitter for a league like this. Wait, what? 44 RL HRs (which actually leads my team), a .648 SLG#, leadoff? Yes. To me, in a high cap DH league with no deadballers, any hitter who doesn’t provide power is a wasted opportunity, including the leadoff hitter. Because you only lead off the game once. After that, in a league like this the average number of men on base per plate appearance is not going to be appreciably different for your leadoff guy than for any other spot in your order. I’m probably hitting Posada 9^th and his OBP# is .421, and my worst on-base guy is .386. In a league where the pitcher hits 9^th and a weak hitter hits 8^th it’s a waste to have power in the leadoff spot. In this league it’s a waste not to. Oh, and Yelich is 30/32 in steals.

Round 7 – Jeff Kent
See the above. Second base tends to be the domain of the slap-hitting speedster. Not on my team, not in this league. Give me another masher.

Round 8 – Jorge Posada
One of my all-time favorites, and apparently schwarze’s as well. I considered going third base here; the best third basemen available were Beltre and Rolen, who I knew would be chosen soon and were both similar players. If either was a LHH I would’ve taken them. But as long as I was going to end up with a righty at third, I looked ahead and saw that everyone in the modern era who needed a third baseman already had their Red Sox player, so I knew I could get Youkilis in the endgame, and he’s only slightly worse than Beltre/Rolen.

Round 9 – Brian Giles
I seem to like this guy more than most people do. LHH, .449 OBP#, 1.057 OPS#, some speed, steals a few bases. He also has an A-/B- version which I sometimes use in CF, because that’s how I roll. But I had other thoughts for 1999 so I penciled in the slightly better 2002.

Round 10 – Victor Martinez
The pick that launched a team name. My draft board was running low on good non-RHH candidates, and I knew that I would already have two of those in my starting lineup and didn’t really want a third, so it was time to lock in a great DH who can hit both ways. He can also play a few games at 1B if Giambi’s 671 PAs aren’t enough to see him through the season at 100%. And he always produces.

Round 11 – J.D. Drew
Another guy who I like more than most people seem to. When he came up with the Cardinals, I remember thinking that if I could be any baseball player I’d want to be him. I just thought he was so naturally and seemingly effortlessly talented. His career never quite panned out the way I thought it would, but he was still a very good player. And I ended up with an A-/B- in CF after all. I considered Beltran here for the better defense, but I just don’t like his bat nearly as much.

Round 12 – Terry Shumpert
I’m almost certain that this was a massive reach, and I’m 100% certain that I don’t care. I used to spend far too much of my free time playing the computer game Civilization IV against the computer. In that game, I’ve always found that when you achieve the technology to build the Statue of Liberty, if you can afford to build it and still move toward your end goal of winning the game, it’s a bellweather that you’re doing well. Because it’s definitely a nice-to-have rather than a must-build, so if you have the excess capacity to build it you’re probably winning. For me, Terry Shumpert was the Statue of Liberty of this draft. He’s my absolute favorite player in the sim because he is almost absurdly useful and really, really good, but there was enough talent available in this draft that he was definitely a nice-to-have rather than a must. The fact that I felt that I could take him so early meant that I had accomplished the majority of my draft goals, or, in the case of Youkilis and my bullpen, would eventually do so without much trouble.

Round 13 – Fernando Rodney
I was kind of hoping that Kuo would drop here, but justinlee_24 grabbed him, so I settled for a 75 IP, 1.21 ERC# Tampa Bay Ray. I’ll take it.

Round 14 – Greg Holland
Another guy I seem to end up with a lot. It’s clearly bullpen time. Royals. Solid.

Round 15 – Mike Adams
Another bullpen arm. I wasn’t sure whether I’d use the 74 IP 2011, the 48 IP 2011, or the 37 IP, 0.62 ERC# 2009. I chose the latter. Stop if you’ve heard this one before: quality…

Round 16 – Ranger Suarez, Mark Melancon
Melancon is yet another guy I end up with a lot. Here is the one place I went with quantity, using his 71 IP 1.62 ERC# over his 30 IP 1.37 ERC# from the same team/season. Suarez is the prototypical Long A: 106 IP, 1.92 ERC#, 2.72 IP/G, meaning he can give you 40 pitches a pop.

Round 17 – Takashi Saito, Dallas Keuchel
Saito is the reason I wasn’t too sad about not getting Kuo in Round 13. The Dodgers have so much bullpen depth that you can get a 79 IP, 1.39 ERC# guy this late in the draft. Incredible. And yes, while I never checked precisely who I was screwing over, part of the reason for choosing Keuchel as my fourth starter, even though I’d need to use his second-best 2015 because I already had my 2020 player, was to prevent his 2020 from being used. So, to the rest of the league, you’re welcome.

Round 18 – Cliff Lee, TGGoW (The Greek God of Walks)
One of the weaknesses of the Excel workbook that I use for these drafts is that when I load it, I delete all but the most expensive versions of players who have multiple versions for the same season and team. This is because in team-based drafts I look at total team salary, and I don’t want those guys to be double-counted. The downside is that I sometimes forget about guys like Cliff Lee, whose full season 2010 was among the best SPs still available, but whose 104 IP, 1.86 ERC# partial season, which was not in my workbook, was definitely the best LR available to me. In fact, had I remembered that version I would’ve taken it instead of Suarez in Round 16, but it worked out because I got him anyway. And while I was 98% sure that no one would take Youkilis for the rest of the draft, there was no reason to continue to risk it. .309/.386/.549, A-/B+ at 3B with your 21^st pick is pretty good value in my book.

Round 19 – Henry Blanco, Edgar Renteria
Endgame city. Blanco is nothing but a defensive replacement for Posada. Renteria is good enough that I’m OK using him in a quasi-platoon with Seager, enabling me to bat him a bit higher in the order. He’s also a great pinch-runner who can steal bases. The only downside is that he’s a full season, which kept me out of the cheapest cumulative salary division. But I think he’s worth it.

Round 20 – Todd Jones, Connor Overton, Sportsman’s Park III
I’ll be honest, I’d expected a little better than Jones for my second Long A. Even in the modern era, with so many franchises to choose from, pickins were pretty slim at the end of the draft. And I might have gotten a little too cute with Overton. I like him: 1.71 ERC# and a 5.50 IP/G. I love using guys like this as a RH Specialist. Sparky won’t use those guys until no one else is available, so they don’t get used much, but if you end up with a long extra inning game having a guy like that who can go 5+ innings is useful. However, this means that I only ended up with 1,478 innings. Will that be enough? I think it will be, especially because I have several guys in relief who can go many innings per game, including Lee who can spot start with 7.97 IP/G to rest the ‘pen. Obviously I thought it was enough innings at the time because I chose an offensive park to accentuate my team’s doubles-hitting ways, but it might’ve been safer to replace Overton with someone with more IP.

EPILOG
I like my team. It looks pretty much the way I thought it would except that the rotation is way too homer-prone. I hope it’s good enough to compete. We shall see.

6000 PA, .327/.425/.581 (not including Blanco, including only 71 PA of Renteria)
1478 IP, 1.71 ERC#, 0.41 HR/9+ (yikes that’s high)

Can someone enlighten me about "calling an audible" reference during the draft?