Karl Malone   32.7% usage
RL fga  19pg
SIM fga 23pg
An increase of 20%

Free throw attempt per game decrease of  25%
Steal per game decrease of 12%
Block per game decrease of 25%
Fouls per game remain equal.
Rebounds are a product of many factors, but increase 13% ( this appears to be right on as more shots are taken, but fewer missed).
Turnovers however,  increase  50%   2.8 to 4.3

Why?

b/c much of the logic of the sim is bad and the execution of it is even worse.

Running an uptempo offense and opponents with high stl% can increase the turnovers.

I'd be fine with a 20% increase in to's, but for a league to average 18 is just dumb.  Many NBA teams run "uptempo" and average around 12 or so.  With our typical excess usage, I'd even think we would see a decrease. 

There just doesn't need to be a modifier that increases to's with uptempo offense.  Unless you are heaving the ball the length of the court on every possession, you are not really going to see increased to's.  A slow half court game has the same to's per possession really, because all the passing causes increased chances for steals, along with 24 second violations.

Now, if we are talking usage penalties, WIS really needs to give us more info as to how we need to draft. 

Posted by badja on 6/7/2011 1:42:00 PM (view original):
I'd be fine with a 20% increase in to's, but for a league to average 18 is just dumb.  Many NBA teams run "uptempo" and average around 12 or so.  With our typical excess usage, I'd even think we would see a decrease. 

There just doesn't need to be a modifier that increases to's with uptempo offense.  Unless you are heaving the ball the length of the court on every possession, you are not really going to see increased to's.  A slow half court game has the same to's per possession really, because all the passing causes increased chances for steals, along with 24 second violations.

Now, if we are talking usage penalties, WIS really needs to give us more info as to how we need to draft. 

Running uptempo has increased turnovers for years in the nba sim.  Using the turnover per possession ratio TO/(FGA+0.44*FTA+TO), ur particular Karl Malone season has seen an increase of about 30% with regards to TO per possession compared to his real life numbers (which isn't particularly abnormal if ur running uptempo offense and are facing teams with high stl%).

With that same logic, there should be more ftas, not less - but there are far less.

Also, switching to half court does nothing to lower turnovers, so I don't buy the up-tempo argument.  You're also talking about a league average increase of 67% - not one team's.  His example is not an abnormal one, either.

I stick to my original statement - much of the logic is bad and the execution is worse.

You have a stat called usage - yet if a player attempts more field goals in a game than they averaged IRL (divided by 82 games, not however many they actually played), they suffer the individual possession penalty.  So, if my 11% tov% Kobe Bryant (31%+ usage) attempts two or three more fga per game, he'll suffer possession penalty despite having a usage of 2 points lower (29%), meaning he's not getting as many possessions as his numbers would indicate - mostly due to the fact that he gets to the line only about 70% as much.

So he attempts more field goals because he gets to the line far less than he should, thus turning the ball over not only more times per game, but at a greater percentage of his possessions (13%).  And on top of that, he shoots a lower fg% because of it.

That last sentence is exactly what happens - and why I stand by my statement.


Something else messed up about it.  85-86 Jordan only played 451 minutes.  He only appeared in a few games, for a certain amount of minutes in those games.  If I'm using that Jordan, as long as his usage is not over the 38% he accomplished that season, he shouldn't hit the possession penalty.  But, again, there's another issue: 451 minutes.  So, in a progressive league where I might try to maintain a realistic career average for him - it's impossible.  You play him 25-30 minutes and he shoots 20-30% because of the possession penalty.  And then there's the turnovers.

There's no way anyone could abuse 451 minutes of Jordan - if you played him 48mpg, you'd only get 9 games out of him - so I don't understand why this 2nd penalty is there.

So, in conclusion - It is very stupid to have a triple possession penalty system with the other current issues in the sim.  They should do away with the fga/82 because it is a stat that does nothing to balance eras and only causes other issues.

What he did for me (advanced stats c/p from my spreadsheet - sorry for the poor formatting; it didn't translate over well)

Name          Usage% eFG% TS%  OReb%    DReb%    Ast%    Stl%    Blk%    Tov%
07-08 Kobe Bryant   29.2    52.0    56.7    1.9    10.1    16.5    2.34    0.83    13.2

	GP	Min	Pts	OReb	Reb	FG	FG3	FT	AST	TO	STL	BLK	FL
Per Game	82	39.7	30.1	0.8	5.1	46.9%	39.8%	83.6%	6.7	4.0	2.1	0.6	2.7
Totals	82	3258	2471	65	417	909/1938	198/498	455/544	550	331	175	53	220

	GP	Min	Pts	OReb	Reb	FG	FG3	FT	AST	TO	STL	BLK	FL
Per Game	14	42.9	30.6	0.9	5.5	44.0%	40.6%	89.9%	7.9	5.0	2.1	0.4	2.6
Totals	14	601	428	12	77	158/359	41/101	71/79	110	70	29	5	36

	GP	Min	Pts	OReb	Reb	FG	FG3	FT	AST	TO	STL	BLK	FL
Per Game	82	38.9	28.3	1.1	6.3	45.9%	36.1%	84.0%	5.4	3.1	1.8	0.5	2.8
Per 48 Min	82	-	34.9	1.4	7.8	45.9%	36.1%	84.0%	6.6	3.9	2.3	0.6	3.4
Totals	82	3193	2323	94	517	775/1690	150/415	623/742	441	257	151	40	227

	Usage%	2pt%#	3pt%#	eFG%	OReb%	DReb%	Ast%	Stl%	Blk%
Advanced	31.9	48.8	35.9	50.3	3.3	13.6	17.0	2.1	0.7

adding to his real numbers, his tov% was 11.3%

www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bryanko01.html

ashamael, ur example of 07-08 Bryant shows an increase in TO%, 2pt% and 3pt% over real life during the regular season in the sim (which is what uptempo is supposed to do).  The FTA issue has been discussed before, players with a high FTA/FGA ratio in real life will have lower ratios in the sim because they are typically playing teams with a low amount of fouls.  There has to be a penalty to players like the 85-86 Jordan if you try to play them 48 mpg, otherwise you will have the equivalent of the Bob Milacki glitch from the MLB sim.

The increase in fg% was very small compared to what it would be 2 versions ago when everybody drafted too much usage.  Generally you expect 2-5% increase in fg% from running up-tempo... and that's without including the huge amount of ast% I ran.

The turnover %, by contrast increase is very large and more than should have occurred by running up-tempo. 

Yes, the FTA issue has been discussed before, but since it IS an issue, it shouldn't create the fga/82 issue. 

Again, my usage was well lower than RL, and my tov% was equally higher than RL.  Less possessions total with far more of those possessions being turnovers.  This is not an isolated issue and is not one you can make up for by drafting too much usage.  I did an experiment with Shaq, Mailman & Lebron and came up with similar results - all had 2-4% less usage with 2-5% more tov%.  The only thing that worked out to be positive from that was that none of the three suffered too severe a fg% hit since none of them were going far over the fga/82 issue.  They still went over it, but again, it was because of lack of ftas.

There would still be a penalty for guys like 85-86 Jordan - it's called lack of minutes.  You couldn't get away with drafting a team full of them, and even saving the minutes till the end of the season and playing them 9 games won't make or break a team.  I suppose you could abuse the waiver wire for half the season, but it wouldn't matter.  Fatigue resets in the playoffs so it wouldn't be an issue there.  I don't see how it would do anything negative to the current sim.

Hmmm.  I've been searching and have no idea where I got fga/82 from.  I can't find it in the knowledge base or in the possession penalty thread.  I did find possessions/82, which makes more sense to me as that really is what usage is.

However, I would like to point out that players who played in a slowdown type offense in the modern era that have high usages (like this year's Kobe) seem to suffer higher individual possession penalties than older players.  I think this is due to using the wrong stat for the wrong thing.  The possessions/82 should be done away with and it should be strictly usage based.  I see no way of exploiting this.

Look at it this way:  I select a modern player with high usage and he'll end up with WAAAAAY more possessions than he had IRL (if I build a "balanced" team).  If I select a player from the 60s, he'll get no where close to the number of possessions he had IRL.  Therefore they're both effected differently with the individual possession penalty:  The modern player will turn the ball over even more than he should because he'll have way more possessions/82 than he did IRL, whereas the older player will probably still turn the ball over the same amount of times as the number WIS fabricated for them.  However, with the older players, you're paying for stats it aren't possible for them to achieve (like 30ppg Oscars & Wests).  Unless, of course, you cause severe possession penalties to claim you.

ps - badja, I found an old post by you while browsing that old thread and responded with something I think you'll particularly enjoy.

Here's some more stats to chew on (all teams OL, up-tempo):

Team 1 has 11 usage points in starting line-up/all rotations, averages 20.4 turnovers (16.2% tov%) per game, shoots 48.5%+ from the field, wins 69 regular season games and a 'ship.  This team started 4-6.  I made no pace adjustments.

Team 2 has 14 usage points in starting line-up/all rotations, averages 20.5 turnovers (16.3% tov%) per game, shoots 47.5% from the field, and is 17-11.

Team 3 has 12 usage points in starting line-up/all rotations, averages 23.4 turnovers (18.2% tov%) per game, shoots 49.6% from the field, and is 55-25.

differences in team make-up with relative turnover percentages (RL vs SIM):

Team 1 uses an Ellis/Rice platoon at the 2:  (9.6% / 10.0% vs 12.1% / 10.3%)

Team 2 uses a Redd/Smith platoon at the 2: (6.6% / 13.0% vs 13.3% / 13.5%)

Team 3 uses a Miller/Barry platoon at the 2: (16.6% / 11.3% vs 20.9% / 14.6%)

Everyone's usage went up 2-3%.


Now, without comparing the relative stl% of every opponent, you can't draw exact conclusions from this.  Actually, the only conclusion I can draw is - WTF?

Seriously.  WTF is up with Michael Redd?!  He went from 6.6% tov% to 13.3%!  His efg% is almost 2% lower (I never have a bomber go lower), too.  His usage is only 2% higher...  That's extreme.

Maybe I should go back to having Wilt/Shaq be my only players higher than tier 5.

Posted by ashamael on 6/7/2011 9:23:00 PM (view original):
The increase in fg% was very small compared to what it would be 2 versions ago when everybody drafted too much usage.  Generally you expect 2-5% increase in fg% from running up-tempo... and that's without including the huge amount of ast% I ran.

The turnover %, by contrast increase is very large and more than should have occurred by running up-tempo. 

Yes, the FTA issue has been discussed before, but since it IS an issue, it shouldn't create the fga/82 issue. 

Again, my usage was well lower than RL, and my tov% was equally higher than RL.  Less possessions total with far more of those possessions being turnovers.  This is not an isolated issue and is not one you can make up for by drafting too much usage.  I did an experiment with Shaq, Mailman & Lebron and came up with similar results - all had 2-4% less usage with 2-5% more tov%.  The only thing that worked out to be positive from that was that none of the three suffered too severe a fg% hit since none of them were going far over the fga/82 issue.  They still went over it, but again, it was because of lack of ftas.

There would still be a penalty for guys like 85-86 Jordan - it's called lack of minutes.  You couldn't get away with drafting a team full of them, and even saving the minutes till the end of the season and playing them 9 games won't make or break a team.  I suppose you could abuse the waiver wire for half the season, but it wouldn't matter.  Fatigue resets in the playoffs so it wouldn't be an issue there.  I don't see how it would do anything negative to the current sim.

(1) The increase in FG% in OL is less now because, in general, good OL teams have better defenses due to the change in salary structure from a previous version.
(2) Well, if a player's TOV% goes from 10% to 15% (a relative increase of 50%) and eFG% goes from 50% to 53% (a relative increase of 6%), the points per possession is about the same.
(3) IMO, there isn't a satisfactory way to solve the FTA issue for players with high real life FTA/FGA ratios.  For example, if a player averages 16 FTA/48 minutes (and his sim usage is comparable to his real life usage) and he is facing a team where each player averages 3 fouls/48 minutes, he won't come close to the 16 FTA/48 minutes (unless you want players fouling out at ridiculous rates).
(4) I think we both agree that drafting more than enough usage is pointless in this version of the sim.
(5) The glitch would be using highly effective, low minute players in game 7 of a playoff series for 48 minutes (like the Bob Milacki glitch in the MLB sim).

1)  I actually didn't think about that... though front court defenses should be much worse at this point.

2) not sure how you arrived at those numbers or even how to incorporate them at this time... will think about what you say.

3)  I agree completely

4)  Yes, we do.  I've been trying to figure out if getting more usage would help lower team tov%, increase team efg% or some other benefit.  At this point, I don't see that having more than 10 (or 11) usage points on the floor does anything.  I am considering trying to duplicate the first team I mentioned with higher efg% / similar tov% combo at shooting guard to see if there's any consistency in my findings or if it's randomness being random.  I'm also switching that 17-11 team to slow down for a few games to see if anything positive occurs.  I have a feeling I'll be putting it back at up tempo quickly, but we'll see what happens.

5)  Didn't think about that... though wasting a million bucks on a guy to maybe close out a series seems counter productive.  Seems like you'd want to spend your salary better so that you didn't end up with game 7s.  I see your point, however much I dislike it.

(2) Assume no FTA, 9/18 FG and 2 TO vs 9/17 FG and 3 TO, 18 points in 20 possessions in both cases.
(5) For example, pair 94-95 Rodman with 09-10 Haywood (or someone inferior depending on how much salary you have to spend on that position) during the regular season then crank up Rodman's minutes during crucial playoff games.  It wouldn't be wasting salary.