I'd definitely like to keep this committee together. Let's just take a breath, this is simply a game.

... and it seems like we are in agreement anyway? LOL.

Bruinsfan, will you kindly re-type the list with your adjusted figures? That way Pimpbotlove can make his announcement in World Chat.

Thanks! It'd be kinda good if the list actually read as above, format-wise, so the message is clear from the get-go. TC that list over to Pimp, also, please. Thank you.

I think we have 5 guys we can recommend. But which other 2 would be a majority recommendation?

My adjusted figures won't be available for awhile, so I'm going to suggest that we simply run with the list you typed up and I'll TC pimp if/when I have adjusted totals available.

Good job getting all three locks in! Since it takes awhile to do adjusted WAR numbers, I will focus on Servais/Tanner/Harvey since they got the most votes of people who did not get elected.

Welcome to the second season of using WAR to inform the HOF Voting! Last year, we had the following guys end up on the outside looking in using the estimated WAR totals so I spent some time calculating park (and position) adjusted totals for them:

1. Darren Harvey, C/DH: 71 estimated WAR, no adjusted totals calculated yet
2. Willis Tanner, RP: 92 estimated WAR, 14.50 adjusted WAR & average of 0.90 adjusted WAR/year
3. Marcus Shipley, Corner OF/2B: 68.2 estimated WAR, no adjusted totals calculated yet
4. John Servais, 2B: 67.7 estimated WAR, 57.1 adjusted WAR & average of 3.40 adjusted WAR/year
5. Roosevelt Curtis, SP: 35 estimated WAR, 21.4 adjusted WAR & average of 2.40 adjusted WAR/year

Based on those numbers, I wouldn’t call any of the five “absolute locks” but would say that Harvey and Servais make the strongest cases while Tanner also deserves some discussion. When compared with MLB RP’s, Tanner’s career would likely be called good but not great so not HOF worthy…but this isn’t MLB, it’s Hardball Dynasty and I rarely see relief pitchers who get to 1.0 WAR in a season so having a career average of 0.90 is certainly notable. For now I think my next step is going to be working on adjusted totals for Harvey and Shipley, but if anyone has strong opinions on any of those five or wants to throw out any other names for me to work on I am all ears.

These guys were all really good, if not GREAT. I'd be interested to see who the first-year nominees are this season.

Does anyone know the formula used by WIS for the AI nominated players?

Also, I think comments like "it’s Hardball Dynasty and I rarely see relief pitchers who get to 1.0 WAR in a season so having a career average of 0.90 is certainly notable." is important because it compares apples to apples. We have positions that are VERY heavy in our HOF while other positions are rare to find any players in.

Posted by milton7 on 5/14/2022 8:34:00 PM (view original):
Does anyone know the formula used by WIS for the AI nominated players?

I think it's very similar to the end of year awards formula which looks at Runs Created and Plus/Minus plays on defense, but it only looks at raw totals and doesn't put it into context so players who have their RC inflated by parks like Colorado, or deflated by parks like Tacoma get unfair treatment...similarly if someone is played out of position at somewhere like 1B or SS and get a disproportionate about of plus or minus plays as a result are evaluated unfairly as well. The WAR formula that I use adjusts for parks and positions played to try and put everyone on a more even playing field for the purposes of comparison.

Posted by milton7 on 5/14/2022 8:39:00 PM (view original):
Also, I think comments like "it’s Hardball Dynasty and I rarely see relief pitchers who get to 1.0 WAR in a season so having a career average of 0.90 is certainly notable." is important because it compares apples to apples. We have positions that are VERY heavy in our HOF while other positions are rare to find any players in.

My eventual goal is to evaluate the Stickball HOF to figure out exactly how many players from each position have been elected and how much WAR to expect from a HOF'er at that position in Stickball so we can say things like "HOF relievers in Stickball usually post 1.0 WAR per season and player X posted 1.5 WAR per season as a reliever so he should definitely be in the HOF." However, since this is just my second year in the league I haven't had time to do all those calculations yet so I'm working with what I've got so far.

I've had a chance to take a look at the Stickball HOF Spreadsheet, and this is the current positional breakdown, including the guys we inducted last season:

• 23 Starting Pitchers {Roosevelt Curtis}
• 13 First Basemen
• 7 Third Basemen
• 7 Left Fielders
• 6 Catchers {Darren Harvey}
• 5 Relief Pitchers {Willis Tanner}
• 4 Second Basemen {Marcus Shipley, John Servais}
• 4 Center Fielders
• 2 Right Fielders
• 1 Designated Hitter
• 0 Shortstops

The names listed in brackets above are those we are considering this season listed next to their appropriate position. Based on this data, I'd say that first dibs at being a "lock" should go to either Servais or Shipley since theirs is the position that is least represented in the HOF. Their estimated WAR totals are only one win apart, so my recommendation would be that they're either both locks or neither one are locks for this year because one win is pretty negligible over the course of a career.

Just glancing but Ortega (6 xMVP) and Watanabe (SS primary position, although not great def) should be 2 we look at.

Also Paul (3 x CY)

We also need to consider one of the guys other than this year's locks, should be elected based on whether they are out of time and this would be last chance to get them in if they are deserving.

Ok, so what I will do today is start by evaluating the three guys thebigdogs mentioned and if/when I have time figure out who is in their final year of eligibility. However, if someone else wants to do that and post the list here that’s fine too.

After I have the full list of people I will write a post here that compares all of them and we can go from there