it may be a record, but it also looks like the bubble is about to burst

yep. definitely a record for schools in danger, and the number with all 10 seasons full of appearances is definitely declining, too. sign of potential-driven parity, or waning interest? or both?

on the plus side, there are a number of up-and-coming teams who have filled in the last 5-6 postseasons, and don't look to be going anywhere but up.

Adrian makes a visit although new could also include danger next to it. Glad to be in the list even if it is just for a season. Thanks for putting this all together wronoj.

nope, no danger for this season, jstrat-- you've made 4 in a row, and it takes 4 of 5 to qualify, so you're qualified next season even if your RPI is 300 and you go nowhere. you'll drop some spots, but...

Thanks for doing this wronoj!

As a school in danger who thinks they stand a decent enough chance of not making the the postseason this year, any thoughts to getting rid of the 4/5 rule and just posting the top 25 pasted upon the last 10 seasons cummalitive total?

Additionally, do you save all the data that you've collected? I'd be interested in all time top 10 where all seasons were treated equal. I assume Anderson would be first under that scenerio, I wonder if Chicago could compete for 2nd w/ UNCW or some of the other multiple title winners.

1) nope-- i think there needs to be some standard, and it is too hard to go back further (like say 7 or 8 in 10 seasons), which would also eliminate all the up-and-coming teams. maybe if we really do start losing a ton of teams i would consider going to: 4 of 6 OR 7 in 10 or whatever, but i need to be able to automate the selection in my Excel spreadsheet in order to do that.

2) i have data back to season 10, i think. So i could easily run the last 25 seasons or so, but not the first 9. there was definitely a hugely different feel to this list at the beginning (St Olafs, Juniata, Dallas, others were all there with Anderson), and then all the coaches who started in season 10 and up seem to have figured something out, or the others got sick of it or something... If there were an easy way to get all that data, I would be happy to run the formula through it.

though the original idea was to prevent inclusion of superteams, essentially, which do seem to have gone the way of the dodo. so maybe it is worth consideration. will have to change it then to just a top 50 regardless, and you would be penalized (ie- get negative points) for any season you didn't make it in the last 10. we would end up with top-50 teams with negative point totals...

Is it only postseason appearances and success that qualifies a team? There are teams like Emmanuel in the Great Northeast that get into the postseason every year because they play in a weak conference, then get trounced in the early rounds. If Chicago missed the postseason next year, I'd still say they're more of a dynasty than Emmanuel.

Maybe a finishing RPI or ranking thrown in there could sort it out? Just talking off the top of my head.

...and in the long run, it would bear out in the standings.

given your scenario, though, even if i dropped the "4 in 5" rule, Emmanuel could pass Chicago with a good postseason run next season, if Chicago missed entirely. 2 zeroes in the last 5 seasons does some pretty serious damage to your total number here. However, if Chicago is able to even squeak into the last spot in the PIT next season, they would stay pretty high in the rankings. He is losing an Elite 8 appearance from 10 seasons ago, too, so barring a good run he will drop a few points anyhow.

i currently only give out points based on how far you go in the 2 tourneys, weighted for more recent success to count more. This definitely rewards consistency over inconsistent deep runs, and we have seen, consistently, guys who were able to do both. i doubt this ends anytime soon. if it does, i will be happy to re-think it.

how do you separate a team with 10 consecutive 2nd-round losses from one who goes 0-0-sweet 16-final 4-0-0-e8-runner up?

the teams who do the best in this system are the ones who consistently win games in the NT-- there is a bump for winning each game, with a slightly larger one for making each "weekend" (ie-sweet 16, f4) than for winning each game. perhaps i need to make an exception for people with an NT championship in the last 10 seasons, but that would require a lot more eye-testing from me in Excel, and lead to more mistakes than it would be worth, IMHO.

i like the idea of doing something simple like subtracting your total RPI from your point total in my current system. Or maybe even half of your total RPI. This would punish pretty severely teams whose one season missing postseason is worse than others who missed (rpi 200 vs RPI 100 coming off your points).

the honest truth is, if i were better with Excel, or had been entering more data all these seasons, i would love to play around with some tweaks to the scoring system. but i am not, and have not been doing so, and have a long string of these things released now, so...

Didn't really want to make it about Chicago, per say... but this is by far my favorite thing going in HD and after working so hard to reach my dream of the top spot, I quickly gave it away to UNCW super dynasty (well deserved snatching of the top spot by them at that point I must add) the very next year. Now I'd hate to see us bumped all the way out, but its my own fault as I grew board w/ recruiting and didn't really try very hard for a couple of years and am about to face the consequences.

Whoooooo! Only took a bunch of seasons but finally got Eureka on. I just hope to have the horses to make the postseason next season and stay on the list.

And, as always, thanks for putting this together wronoj.

more congrats to barjaz (E. Oregon) on yet another D3 championship, this time in Rupp. That's 2 this week. Nicely done.

congrats to barjaz as well, I saw that and wondered if it was his old one, or if he really just double dipped. Going off your earlier post wronoj, you better pick up the pace w/ a title to keep your rep in the original big 5. barjaz, jj & myself w/ 4 titles in the last week. I'm expecting your or bugs to come thru in the next week or 2.