Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:58:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 2:34:00 PM (view original):So, that's all you have on her? She's a conservative? I see how you decide who to vote for. You look at the letter next to the name and go with the D.yeah, here.
Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 2:34:00 PM (view original):So, that's all you have on her? She's a conservative? I see how you decide who to vote for. You look at the letter next to the name and go with the D.
Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 5:54:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:40:00 PM (view original):Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 5:34:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:27:00 PM (view original):Correct, but do you know who he is, what he's known for, and what he does?Yes.Then you also know who he works for and that his job is translation of polling data, correct. I know he's not pollster and has never taken a poll in his life, but you understand what I'm saying. Yes, but it isn't like HE makes a prediction. Like it's a model that he develops but that spits out the results, not him. And honestly there isn't much political bias to his writing.
Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:40:00 PM (view original):Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 5:34:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:27:00 PM (view original):Correct, but do you know who he is, what he's known for, and what he does?Yes.Then you also know who he works for and that his job is translation of polling data, correct. I know he's not pollster and has never taken a poll in his life, but you understand what I'm saying.
Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 5:34:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:27:00 PM (view original):Correct, but do you know who he is, what he's known for, and what he does?Yes.
Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:27:00 PM (view original):Correct, but do you know who he is, what he's known for, and what he does?
Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 6:39:00 PM (view original):Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:56:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:38:00 PM (view original):Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:28:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.This is a weird take. If if I ask you to roll a sixsided die and attempt to get a six, your odds of rolling a six would be one in six. Your odds of rolling something other than a six would be five in six. If I say it’s likely that you won’t roll a six and then you do roll a six, was I wrong?Yes, I agree polling is very difficult, but it's similar to sports betting. Creating spreads in Vegas is far from an exact science, but if oddsmakers are consistently way off base they lose credibility.I don't think Silver was way off base in 2016. He had Clinton ahead nationally and she ended up ahead nationally. And Silver had Trump's odds of winning at something like 1 in 3...those aren't long odds.Silver was very close with the popular vote, but if I remember correctly he gave Clinton somewhere around an 85% chance of winning.
Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:56:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:38:00 PM (view original):Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:28:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.This is a weird take. If if I ask you to roll a sixsided die and attempt to get a six, your odds of rolling a six would be one in six. Your odds of rolling something other than a six would be five in six. If I say it’s likely that you won’t roll a six and then you do roll a six, was I wrong?Yes, I agree polling is very difficult, but it's similar to sports betting. Creating spreads in Vegas is far from an exact science, but if oddsmakers are consistently way off base they lose credibility.I don't think Silver was way off base in 2016. He had Clinton ahead nationally and she ended up ahead nationally. And Silver had Trump's odds of winning at something like 1 in 3...those aren't long odds.
Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:38:00 PM (view original):Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:28:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.This is a weird take. If if I ask you to roll a sixsided die and attempt to get a six, your odds of rolling a six would be one in six. Your odds of rolling something other than a six would be five in six. If I say it’s likely that you won’t roll a six and then you do roll a six, was I wrong?Yes, I agree polling is very difficult, but it's similar to sports betting. Creating spreads in Vegas is far from an exact science, but if oddsmakers are consistently way off base they lose credibility.
Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:28:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.This is a weird take. If if I ask you to roll a sixsided die and attempt to get a six, your odds of rolling a six would be one in six. Your odds of rolling something other than a six would be five in six. If I say it’s likely that you won’t roll a six and then you do roll a six, was I wrong?
Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.
Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.
Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 6:48:00 PM (view original):Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 5:54:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:40:00 PM (view original):Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 5:34:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:27:00 PM (view original):Correct, but do you know who he is, what he's known for, and what he does?Yes.Then you also know who he works for and that his job is translation of polling data, correct. I know he's not pollster and has never taken a poll in his life, but you understand what I'm saying. Yes, but it isn't like HE makes a prediction. Like it's a model that he develops but that spits out the results, not him. And honestly there isn't much political bias to his writing.He creates the models; therefore, the results are his. I never said his results were politically biased. What I was saying is that he has missed quite a bit in recent years, so I wouldn't count your chickens too early in Kansas.
Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 6:51:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 6:39:00 PM (view original):Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:56:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:38:00 PM (view original):Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:28:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.This is a weird take. If if I ask you to roll a sixsided die and attempt to get a six, your odds of rolling a six would be one in six. Your odds of rolling something other than a six would be five in six. If I say it’s likely that you won’t roll a six and then you do roll a six, was I wrong?Yes, I agree polling is very difficult, but it's similar to sports betting. Creating spreads in Vegas is far from an exact science, but if oddsmakers are consistently way off base they lose credibility.I don't think Silver was way off base in 2016. He had Clinton ahead nationally and she ended up ahead nationally. And Silver had Trump's odds of winning at something like 1 in 3...those aren't long odds.Silver was very close with the popular vote, but if I remember correctly he gave Clinton somewhere around an 85% chance of winning.It was actually 71%. What's wrong with that?
Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 6:43:00 PM (view original):Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:58:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 2:34:00 PM (view original):So, that's all you have on her? She's a conservative? I see how you decide who to vote for. You look at the letter next to the name and go with the D.yeah, here.Yes, voting based on political party is wrong. Also you said political party is an issue. I disagreed with you.
Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 6:55:00 PM (view original):Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 6:51:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 6:39:00 PM (view original):Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:56:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:38:00 PM (view original):Posted by bad_luck on 11/6/2018 5:28:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 5:11:00 PM (view original):Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:58:00 PM (view original):Side note: 538 has Kansas' Governors race at a 50/50 toss up. Only toss up projected. Kelly SLIGHT favorite. ****, now it's giving me hope.I'm not sure I would trust Nate Silver's predictions. He had one good year where he got everything right, but has been wrong quite a bit sense.This is a weird take. If if I ask you to roll a sixsided die and attempt to get a six, your odds of rolling a six would be one in six. Your odds of rolling something other than a six would be five in six. If I say it’s likely that you won’t roll a six and then you do roll a six, was I wrong?Yes, I agree polling is very difficult, but it's similar to sports betting. Creating spreads in Vegas is far from an exact science, but if oddsmakers are consistently way off base they lose credibility.I don't think Silver was way off base in 2016. He had Clinton ahead nationally and she ended up ahead nationally. And Silver had Trump's odds of winning at something like 1 in 3...those aren't long odds.Silver was very close with the popular vote, but if I remember correctly he gave Clinton somewhere around an 85% chance of winning.It was actually 71%. What's wrong with that?Okay. I'll let you have that since you took the time to look it up. I was going off of memory.
Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:54:00 PM (view original):Posted by cccp1014 on 11/6/2018 3:37:00 PM (view original):Posted by rsp777 on 11/6/2018 3:13:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 2:34:00 PM (view original):So, that's all you have on her? She's a conservative? I see how you decide who to vote for. You look at the letter next to the name and go with the D.Honestly it's the PIECE OF **** part I'm worried about. We all know her politics and what she represents. And don't tell me because she was in the military that she's somehow more qualified. She's NOT.She served in the war as fighter pilot. I would never disparage a war veteran by calling them a POS. *COUGH* McCain *COUGH*
Posted by cccp1014 on 11/6/2018 3:37:00 PM (view original):Posted by rsp777 on 11/6/2018 3:13:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 2:34:00 PM (view original):So, that's all you have on her? She's a conservative? I see how you decide who to vote for. You look at the letter next to the name and go with the D.Honestly it's the PIECE OF **** part I'm worried about. We all know her politics and what she represents. And don't tell me because she was in the military that she's somehow more qualified. She's NOT.She served in the war as fighter pilot. I would never disparage a war veteran by calling them a POS.
Posted by rsp777 on 11/6/2018 3:13:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 2:34:00 PM (view original):So, that's all you have on her? She's a conservative? I see how you decide who to vote for. You look at the letter next to the name and go with the D.Honestly it's the PIECE OF **** part I'm worried about. We all know her politics and what she represents. And don't tell me because she was in the military that she's somehow more qualified. She's NOT.
Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 7:00:00 PM (view original):No, I'm okay with that. Like I said, I remember him giving her like an 85% chance of winning. There is a big difference between 85 and 71.
Posted by cccp1014 on 11/6/2018 7:22:00 PM (view original):Silver is not reputable. He still blames Comey for HRC's loss vs. blaming HRC herself or the fact that voters didn't like Obama's eight years. I agree with you, KO.
Posted by cccp1014 on 11/6/2018 7:09:00 PM (view original):Posted by tangplay on 11/6/2018 4:54:00 PM (view original):Posted by cccp1014 on 11/6/2018 3:37:00 PM (view original):Posted by rsp777 on 11/6/2018 3:13:00 PM (view original):Posted by strikeout26 on 11/6/2018 2:34:00 PM (view original):So, that's all you have on her? She's a conservative? I see how you decide who to vote for. You look at the letter next to the name and go with the D.Honestly it's the PIECE OF **** part I'm worried about. We all know her politics and what she represents. And don't tell me because she was in the military that she's somehow more qualified. She's NOT.She served in the war as fighter pilot. I would never disparage a war veteran by calling them a POS. *COUGH* McCain *COUGH*Did I ever call McCain a POS?
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