Posted by PBandJ on 4/25/2023 7:24:00 AM (view original):
Posted by robusk on 4/24/2023 1:27:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ashamael on 4/24/2023 1:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by robusk on 4/24/2023 7:13:00 AM (view original):
Posted by PBandJ on 4/24/2023 7:12:00 AM (view original):
Posted by robusk on 4/23/2023 10:00:00 PM (view original):
First round was pretty chalk but there are 8 picks in the second already that really have me scratching my head. Each of them either:
- went ~10-15 picks too early with alternative paths I liked better
or
- the person selected had a clearly superior player of the same profile on the board.
To translate:
Rob HATES my Rodman/Ben Ben combo to start.
I am on the record of being far lower on both players than consensus. But well established people like Ben disagree with me so I wouldn't take it personally.
I’m also really high on Ben Wallace. I have other guys ranked higher, but that 5x 100 with his rebounds makes a lot of decisions easier when picking later rounds. People are efg obsessed, though, and when you look at that, he falls quite a bit. I have him ranked behind Chandler & Capela in my metrics but would (and have, at least twice) pick him over either because I prefer draft flexibility later versus forced weakness early.
eFG is definitely not my reasoning, my draft record shows that. Just look at my first three draft picks. For my money Ben isn’t even one dimensional… he’s like .75 dimensional. I need a lot more than that at that stage of the draft.
But ash is another voice of reason to put with Ben and the others. I think it’s pretty safe to ignore me on the matter even if I can’t say no to moderately interesting dialogue.
I don't agree with the one (or the .75) dimensional reasoning. His defense and rebounding are great, but he does it without killing you on fouls and turnover %. I find that to be essential for these leagues. Not only is he giving you more possessions by what he does on defense, but he provides fewer opportunities in giving away possessions.
I mean, comparatively, he isn't even that good of a rebounder. Yes, you get the 5 100 D seasons. But of the 9 big men who are drafted between the turn and middle of the second, he is only the 6th best rebounder of the 9 while being the second worst offensive player of the 9 (the other bad offensive player is Bill Russell, who is tied with Ben in terms is defense, and he is a significantly better rebounder). The three players who are worse rebounders than Ben:
- Tyson Chandler, who I also have towards the back of this pack is mostly a plus on offense, low usage but a positive when he does something, almost as good on defense
- Artis Gilmore, depends on the buyer, it's hard to stomach the fouls and turnovers but I think it is hard to argue he isn't the superior player. I won't fight you too hard though.
- Joel Embiid is I think the best player of the entire 9 people in this list.
Everyone else on the list is an extremely good defender besides Capela who is just an above average defender. However, Capela is not only among the handful of best rebounding big men in the database but is the best offensive big man in this list besides Embiid and just a general per minute monster.
So from a value proposition standpoint, at least in terms of how I stack up the players, I see Ben as clearly the worst of those 9 players and yet he has the 4th highest ADP which seems like pretty bad ROI.
4/25/2023 9:25 AM (edited)