Q: How much randomness is really in the play-by-play results? For reference, I used to have an old Avalon Hill game called Strategy Football, and the way it worked was each side called their play, and looked up the result on a table - so a specific offensive play against a specific defensive play would ALWAYS yield the same result, no matter what. Nobody wants that, but we don’t want “spinner” football games either.
A: There is always going to be a level of randomness since everything is odds based. For example, if a QB recognizes that the receiver is open. Basically, the end results is a percent chance -- say 0.9 or 90%. Then a random number is used to determine the outcome -- between 0 and 0.9, then the QB sees the receiver....between 0.91 and 1.0, the QB misses him. That percent chance is what gets adjusted based on the player ratings. This is why sample size is important. Going back to the example, the random number could end up being between 0.91 and 1.0 4 out of 5 times yielding 10% recognition, but as that sample grows, the results will trend toward the 90%.
Q: Without going into the actual formula / calculations, could you go through what is involved with simulating a play? For example, it obviously starts with select offensive play based on down/distance/game situation, select defensive play based on down/distance/offensive formation, then... ?
A: I think a lot of people out there don't realize that each play is simulated, in great detail, and the game plays out just like a real football game. We don't predetermine outcomes or get a final score and work backwards. It is played just like a real game. I’ll walk you through a passing play (skipping all the steps prior to the snap of the ball where the offense and defense are selected, players subbed, etc.):
1. The first step after the ball is snapped is to determine the time the QB has to throw the ball.
*** This initial determination is done looking at the number of players the offense has available to pass protect on the play and their ability to do so (blocking, strength, and game instinct are the most important factors) against the defense's pass rushing ability (strength, elusiveness, and technique). There is also a chance that an offensive player will miss his assignment which would result in very quick pressure on the QB. This is done by selecting a blocker and looking at his blocking, formation IQ, and experience to determine if he understands whom to block on the play.
2. The QB determines where his target location to throw the ball is for the play.
*** This determination is done based on the aggressiveness of the offensive play call to start. Then it is adjusted by shifting the QB's vision if it is 3rd or 4th down and he needs to look beyond the first down marker, if the team is close to scoring and the field is compressed, or if the throw needs to go to the endzone (time running out, hail mary, etc.).
3. Using the protection time and target location, does the QB have time to go to his target location?
4a. QB has the time - the matchup between the target receiver and the defender on the play is analyzed to determine if the receiver is open. (Go to 7)
*** This is done by looking at athleticism, speed, elusiveness, technique, and game instinct for the receiver and athleticism, speed, technique, and game instinct for the defender. This is further modified by the location on the field -- the player is more likely to be open on a screen pass than he is on a deep throw.
4b. QB does not have the time - does the QB recognize that he does not have the time he needs? (Go to 5)
*** This is based on the QB's game instinct and experience.
5a. No - there is a chance for a sack. The matchup between the QB and the pressuring defender is analyzed to determine if the sack is made or the QB eludes the pressure. (Go to 6)
5b. Yes - the QB will either select a different target he does have time for (checkdown) or rollout to buy some extra time. If he leaves the pocket, the amount of extra protection time is determined and the decision process basically goes back to 3. The QB can obviously only leave the pocket 1 time to get extra time.
6a. Sack
*** Based on the matchup between the defender (ATH, SPD, GI, TKL, TECH) applying the pressure and the QB (ATH, SPD, ELU, STR).
6b. The QB will leave the pocket to get more time if he is in the pocket.
*** The amount of time he can gain is based on his ATH, ELU, SPD, and STR along with the blocking/defense factors determined in step one with slight modifications.
6c. The QB will either throw the ball away or scramble if he is already outside the pocket.
*** Determine if the QB will scramble based on his ATH, SPD, and ELU.
7a. Receiver is open -- determine if the QB recognizes that the target receiver is open (Go to 8)
*** The main factors here are the QB's GI and formation IQ.
7b. Receiver is coverd -- the QB will either force the throw or move on to another target which basically goes back to 3. *** The decision to force the throw is based on the aggressiveness of the play call, the QB's GI, and his STR.
8a. Yes -- the throw is made.
8b. No -- the QB moves on to another target which again goes back to 3.
9. Determine the outcome of the throw. Is it a good throw?
*** This is based on the distance of the throw, the throwing window the QB has (relative "open-ness" of the receiver), and the QB's accuracy (TECH, STR).
10a. Yes -- does the receiver make the catch? (Go to 11)
*** Based on the accuracy of the throw (ease of the catch), and the receiver's hands, athleticism, strength, and technique.
10b. No -- determine if the defender makes the INT or if it is just incomplete.
*** This is based on the positioning of the defense and the closest defender. Whether or not the defender can make the play on the ball and intercept it is based on his speed, athleticism, hands, strength, and technique.
11a. Yes -- is the receiver tackled right away by the defender? (Go to 12)
*** Based on the ease with which the receiver made the catch (results of 10a).
11b. No -- the receiver dropped the pass.
12a. Yes -- receiver tackled.
*** Whether or not the receiver is tackled or the run continues is based on defensive positioning, receiver's speed, elusiveness, athleticism, and strength, and defender speed, athleticism, game instinct, tackling, and technique.
12b. No -- receiver runs after the catch.