I’m not sure if my pick will be considered a head scratcher or not. ADPs aren’t as useful this season.

Posted by steelers821 on 4/23/2023 10:05:00 PM (view original):
I’m not sure if my pick will be considered a head scratcher or not. ADPs aren’t as useful this season.

He is right around where I thought he would go. Kyrie, Dame and Jrue went where I thought they would go. Jokic generally right. Biting my tongue on something else.

I agonized between Chandler, Capela, and Whiteside. Ultimately it came down to liking potential realistic pairings with Chandler over those of Capela & Whiteside. That and my metric had Chandler as the literal best player available, and it wasn't particularly close (except with those 2).

I also REALLY wanted Kyrie or Luka in round 3. That. *******. HURT!

I don't hate Jokic at 13. I know I talked some mad **** about him, but I was secretly hoping that people wouldn't jump on him just yet. I can see him going anywhere between 9 and 15 going forward. I don't think he's the 9th best player, but i definitely can see someone thinking that. If he had a 50-60 defense, then he might be top 5.

I ******* loathe my draft thus far. I never like drafting a SF before round 3, much less round 1. I'm either not starting my back court till round 4 or having inferior bigs. Such is life. I didn't like last year's start either.

Imagine how good Jokic will be if he adds two more seasons like his last three.

Posted by Midge on 4/23/2023 10:58:00 PM (view original):
Imagine how good Jokic will be if he adds two more seasons like his last three.

even one more probably makes him perpetually top 10. 5x 60% efg at that point. Two more? Jesus.

So for those who don't know, I have a pair of adjusted salary per minute metrics I use to evaluate players: one that dramatically lessens the impact of usage in the salary formula, and one that leaves usage alone. I've worked quite a bit on tweaking it over the past couple of years to get a better understanding of salary evaluation and how it translates to player value.

Using the latter - the one that does not lessen usage's impact - Ty has the #2 and #5 players when averaging out their five best seasons. On the same team. Using the former, Ty has the #1 overall guard and, well, Embiid falls way down when you lessen the impact of usage (61).

Of course, this is just one metric, in a vacuum that takes no other team building or coaching concepts into account - ie by no means perfect; no single, all-in-one metric is - but it's still pretty scary. Thankfully, Embiid doesn't play a lot of minutes, but holy ****, man!!!

There is a lot of Round 2 rated talent still left on the board. Of course, it's my board so they are actually probably undraftable..

Posted by robusk on 4/23/2023 10:00:00 PM (view original):
First round was pretty chalk but there are 8 picks in the second already that really have me scratching my head. Each of them either:
- went ~10-15 picks too early with alternative paths I liked better

or

- the person selected had a clearly superior player of the same profile on the board.

To translate:

Rob HATES my Rodman/Ben Ben combo to start.

I have Embiid slotted as a top of the 2nd player. There are lots of guys who went (basically every big man except maaaaybe Capela) who I would have taken Embiid over and probably most of the guards depending on fit.

Posted by PBandJ on 4/24/2023 7:12:00 AM (view original):

Posted by robusk on 4/23/2023 10:00:00 PM (view original):
First round was pretty chalk but there are 8 picks in the second already that really have me scratching my head. Each of them either:
- went ~10-15 picks too early with alternative paths I liked better

or

- the person selected had a clearly superior player of the same profile on the board.

To translate:

Rob HATES my Rodman/Ben Ben combo to start.

I am on the record of being far lower on both players than consensus. But well established people like Ben disagree with me so I wouldn't take it personally.

I somewhat considered Embiid Wade at the turn.

I do really like the KAJ fit with those two guys though.

So far this couldn't have worked out any better than I had planned, for what my plan is worth. Really wanted to try KD and focus more on offense with my first pick rather than the generally conservative defender with mediocre shooting. And then really wanted to pair him with Capela. Worst defensive team I've started with, the dream was to slide Nance in between them to make up for the D and wasn't sure he'd make it to me. We'll see how easy it is to fit guys around them.

Posted by jcred5 on 4/24/2023 11:16:00 AM (view original):
So far this couldn't have worked out any better than I had planned, for what my plan is worth. Really wanted to try KD and focus more on offense with my first pick rather than the generally conservative defender with mediocre shooting. And then really wanted to pair him with Capela. Worst defensive team I've started with, the dream was to slide Nance in between them to make up for the D and wasn't sure he'd make it to me. We'll see how easy it is to fit guys around them.

Is the plan KD at the 3 and Nance at the 4 or KD at the 2 and Nance at the 3?