Posted by steelers821 on 5/13/2023 10:45:00 AM (view original):
Lol I see I’m surrounded by fellow Simmons hate listeners. I can’t wait to hear him talk about Lebron winning, KD losing and potentially Boston losing.

Don’t you dare f***ing jinx it!

I know I’m not the first to have this thought since I have talked about it with other people from this site, but Jayson Tatum would be at least twice as popular of an NBA player without the existence of Simmons.

I actually made a long Reddit post recapping podcast views/predictions from the 2017 draft and looking at them from a 2022-23 perspective, and Simmons is featured heavily. Such gems as Bill’s dad saying Fultz for Tatum+ future pick is the worst trade in Boston history, and Simmons wanting the Celtics to trade Tatum for Monk and #10.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/z6em3f/how_bad_are_we_at_predicting_the_nba_future_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

And Simmons kind of predicts the pandemic too lmao

Posted by dBKC on 5/13/2023 12:13:00 PM (view original):
I actually made a long Reddit post recapping podcast views/predictions from the 2017 draft and looking at them from a 2022-23 perspective, and Simmons is featured heavily. Such gems as Bill’s dad saying Fultz for Tatum+ future pick is the worst trade in Boston history, and Simmons wanting the Celtics to trade Tatum for Monk and #10.

https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/z6em3f/how_bad_are_we_at_predicting_the_nba_future_a/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Lol good stuff.

I remember reading that when you first posted it dBKC. Those Ringer people are mostly idiots outside of J Kyle Mann and the late Tjarks.

Posted by robusk on 5/13/2023 5:52:00 PM (view original):
I remember reading that when you first posted it dBKC. Those Ringer people are mostly idiots outside of J Kyle Mann and the late Tjarks.

I don’t disagree, but I was surprised to see that their takes aged a little better than the Dunc’d On guys.

Or at least that was my takeaway. The Dunc’d On highlights are at the bottom of my post.

I'd rather see the Williams' get more minutes for Boston if I'm them. Horford does look cooked. Grant has limitations but he has been a pretty effective post season player. Time Lord feels like he's being held back too much. Doc is 100% crushing the coaching matchup.

I have talked so much Savage and done so much editing I can't get another video out tonight, much less rope one of the guys into recording one. You guys already know my views on all the teams. Here is what I am doing instead: I described the formulas I use as a tool to evaluate team effectiveness post draft and I described the filter I made to identify seasons above replacement level. I am going to rank teams four ways: draft score (formulas previously discussed), seasons above replacement level rank (number of seasons based on filter previously discussed), average finish, and preseason SoS. Then I will give is a little qualitative assessment to apply a 5 place range expected finish to give every team a range on where I expect them to finish used the average rank of ranks as a guide. I have not put that much thought into this piece per se, although I put so much thought into the videos that I hope some of it carries over.

The tiers are not sorted in any order so please do not read anything into that. I did not do any ranking within tiers for this exercise.

Coach	Draft Rank Average	Seasons ARL Rank	Rank Average Finish	Preseason SoS Rank	Rank Average	Comments	Predicted Range
jcred5	1	4	9	23	9.25	Really depends on lineup gymnastics but so much to love.	1-5
dBKC	2	5	6	22	8.75	Lots of usage, weak defense but so many high ceiling players.	1-5
ncmusician_7	3	6	8	13	7.5	Defense is really a problem but everything else is great.	1-5
dh555	8	15	11	4	9.5	Great division draw on a great team. How to make the bench work?	1-5
ty84moss	6	20	14	3	10.75	Top level talent is elite if the bench can hold up.	1-5
jhsukow	7	1	18	15	10.25	A jhsukow masterpiece?	5-10
benhoidal	16	12	7	2	9.25	If the schedule is as good as it looks then this could be the season.	5-10
edsortails	4	2	13	9	7	Really cool to see how much the numbers love this team.	5-10
ashamael	14	11	5	18	12	Ash is probably good enough to overcome some shallow depth.	5-10
robusk	10	9	1	19	9.75	Maybe taking min maxing a bit too far to the extreme.	5-10
steelers821	9	13	17	24	15.75	Feels far too low given the beautiful roster fit but SoS and historic performance weighing it down.	10-15
raggedclaws	17	19	4	10	12.5	Really shallow amount of ARL seasons but Gobert + Lillard is magic.	10-15
amerk1180	5	3	15	11	8.5	Shooting from the high usage players will be the draw back.	10-15
gerryred	11	7	16	5	9.75	Tons of great players playing at subpar positions.	10-15
20ks	13	10	19	1	10.75	Rebounding plus Harden is a good recipe, but the bench is rough.	10-15
chewy3344	21	22	2	12	14.25	Tough to go against the history, gonna eat my words?	15-20
24kpyrite	22	21	10	7	15	History says 24k will make at least one finals and probably be closer to 15 than 20.	15-20
jkaye24	12	16	3	21	13	Gonna be gasping for breath and can't stop anyone but sure can score.	15-20
berkelon	18	14	21	20	18.25	berkelon is gonna beat the numbers I believe.	15-20
Midge	15	8	12	14	12.25	When they aren't turning the ball over they will score a lot.	15-20
jpevans31	24	24	20	16	21	jpevans blew my projections way out of the water with his last build like this.	20-24
pbandj	20	18	22	6	16.5	Trenchcoat full of watches, but I like pbandj a lot and hope I am wrong.	20-24
jethroeg	19	17	24	8	17	jethroeg gets better every season and 20 wouldn't be bad.	20-24
albiband0	23	23	23	17	21.5	Depends on what happens with the guards tbh.	20-24

On the eve of the start of another Savage - good luck to all. Felt like this was one of the best drafts and a lot of strong teams - could be our most competitive Savage yet.

What I’m not going to do is overreact. I’ll just say that after this first round of games, I have assembled the worst collection of talent Savage has ever seen and will lock in to relegation by the allstar break.

I’ll get the scoresheet updated today.

SoS was based off owner rankings or team rankings? Or some mixture of both? I hope to beat your prediction. Preseason sos no matter what it’s based off of in sports is ever accurate and I think I can do better than average of 17th in owner ranks.

good luck everyone! I hope it’s another fun season of savage.

Posted by robusk on 5/11/2023 3:19:00 PM (view original):
For those who are curious, given how much I railed on it in the video, I have 1703 total "usable seasons" for Savage in the WiS database.

If you don't mind sharing...

How many usable seasons went undrafted? Are there any players with 2+ usable seasons that went undrafted?