Recruit potential messages key/legend Topic

lvnwrth
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Quote: Originally Posted By sluggo on 4/10/2010
These two are not the same. Tapped Out is not low potential. It is closer to NO potential...I had one on one of my teams. He was a D1AA DL with a WE of 34, and he grew 8 pts in a 17 game season
My understanding is that the worse a guy is, the easier it is for him to improve. If that's true, a D1AA player is already starting out pretty high, so there's not that much room to grow anyway, compared to a DIII player.

I only bring this up because I did take a "tapped out" RB a few years ago at Dickinson (Leahy). He was already pretty good, relative to the RB I had on my roster. He was my #3 RB from the beginning, with cores (Spd, Str, Elu) all in the 50's. He DID grow 2-3 points in each core each season, and was the #2 back on a playoff team his senior season.

Based on that experience, I took one (an OL) a couple of seasons later at Concordia (IL) in Yost. He had poor ST, WE, but he was like 110 in str+blk and my team was so weak that he started immediately. He didn't improve as much as the RB at Dickinson, but he also got a couple of improves a year and was up in the mid-120's str+tkl by his senior season.

I wouldn't recommend building a team around tapped out guys, but if you're in a position where you have to take one...where they're significantly better than the remaining available guys at their position and no one else is recruiting them...they can be passable players, at least at DIII.
4/10/2010 4:07 PM
kentaurus
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Quote: Originally posted by kcwallace on 4/10/2010THis post should be pinned to avoid people asking the same repeated question.
+1 (or get a good clean copy like will's post and pin/close that one)
4/10/2010 7:15 PM
onside
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4/10/2010 10:18 PM
peanutjets
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Quote: Originally posted by willgibson on 4/10/2010Great potential
1. Sky's the limit (in the AC scouting rreport)
2. Incredible upside potential (in the AC scouting rreport)
3. A truly gifted athlete (in the HC scouting report)

Good potential
1. Above average potential (in the HC scouting report)
2. He's got the potential to improve his game a lot over 4 years with us. (in the AC scouting report)
3. I'm sure that your guys took some good notes about my game, and recognized that I have an amazing upside to my game. (message from recruit)
4. Upside is my middle name (message from recruit)
5. "improve a lot" (from AC scouting report)
6. "room to grow".
7. "With a little work, he could be a very good player" (from HC scouting report)
8. "Good potential for improvement" (from the HC scouting report)
9. "He's not the most gifted athlete . . . but not bad at all." (from the HC scouting report).

Average potential:
1. Looks like he has a hard time making adjustments. (from the HC scouting report)
2. He's made good strides towards reaching his potential over the past couple years. (from the HC scouting report)
3. I think his growth potential is pretty average - nothing special. (from the AC scouting report)
4. My motor never stops running (message from recruit)
5. I give 110% out there (message from recruit)
6. I'm sure that your guys took some good notes about my game, and recognized that I've worked really hard and lived up to my potential. (message from recruit)
7. "Some room for improvement, but not much." (from HC scouting report)
8. "Probably won't see huge improvements." (from HC scouting report)
9. "He seems slow to pick things up in practice." (from HC scouting report)

Low potential
1. "he's worked really hard in high school and has about reached his potential (from AC scouting report)
2. "tapped out" (from AC or HC scouting report, I forget which -- it's been a while since I've seen this message).

These are not guesses on my part. I've done a lot of work cross-referencing the various messages and charting recruit growth during my time in GD.


THANK YOU!!!!
4/11/2010 1:26 AM
wildpike
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+1, sticky this

4/11/2010 11:34 PM
wildpike
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keep bumping this until it becomes stickied

Yes, I know I can save it but I have 3 computers and travel a lot....dont ask

4/11/2010 11:35 PM
hitman1979
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Quote: Originally posted by wildpike on 4/11/2010keep bumping this until it becomes stickiedYes, I know I can save it but I have 3 computers and travel a lot....dont ask 

As long as only one is for porn.
4/11/2010 11:43 PM
willgibson
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OK, I found a new message from the HC scouting report

He's probably already playing close to his potential.

The AC scouting report was a self scout that said "I've worked really hard and lived up to my potential."

I'm going to send out another AC scout as I've never had that message come up before.

4/12/2010 8:27 PM
z32fanatic
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Wow this is really an eye opener. I had thought that "made good strides toward" and "probably won't see huge improvements" meant low potential. I still have yet to get the "reached his potential" in a AC scout, although I have gotten "worked really hard and lived up to my potential" from the recruit many times.

Are you sure about all these Will? It seems that very, very few of them are low potential, way less than there are good potential. I would guess 75% of the people are average potential if all those messages are in the correct categories. I know I've passed on several people thinking that they had low potential, which I apparently confused with average haha.
4/12/2010 9:51 PM
jtwhiz
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I've also tested these potential messages and I believe Will's entire list is correct. You do hardly ever see low potential guys - I think I've seen them about as often as STL guys. In my experience, you see high potential and average potential guys at about the same frequency.
4/12/2010 10:02 PM
wildpike
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Quote: Originally Posted By hitman1979 on 4/11/2010
Quote: Originally posted by wildpike on 4/11/2010
keep bumping this until it becomes stickied

Yes, I know I can save it but I have 3 computers and travel a lot....dont ask



As long as only one is for porn


crap, now i need to get a 4th

4/13/2010 7:07 AM
willgibson
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Quote: Originally Posted By willgibson on 4/12/2010
OK, I found a new message from the HC scouting report

He's probably already playing close to his potential.

The AC scouting report was a self scout that said "I've worked really hard and lived up to my potential."

I'm going to send out another AC scout as I've never had that message come up before.



OK, I've got three self scouting reports back on the kid, all with the same language. I would tend to believe "He's probably already playing close to his potential." is the same as "reached his potential". If this is the case, it means the self-scouting reports usually indicate average potential but occasionally are low potential kids. If that's the case, it would stand to reason that self scouting reports that indicate "amazing upside to my game" usually indicate good potential with the occasional STL recruit. Which suggests if you get back a self-scout report, you might want to spend the extra money on a HC report just to be certain.

This potential confusion could be elminated with plague's excellent proposal to clean up the language in scouting reports to make it easier for coaches to evaluate a player's potential.
4/13/2010 1:08 PM
tigerpark135
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OK great topic. My 2 cents. I am in my sixth season in heismann. and fifth in leahy. I am by no means an expert but I am a quick learner and a stat nut.

I am starting to believe we all put way to much stock into potential. I also believe the perseption of how to track it is waaay off. It was explained to me that potencial was the "SIZE OF THE CUP" and the "we" the amount of water poored in. I DO NOT believe this.



A better way to decribe it is: "WE" is how much a player will grow in a season. The "pot" is for how many season. I chart like this:

STL= expect "we" value increases all the way through senior or redshirt senior year.

high= "we" value increases until approx jr-sr year then a moderate decrease if he is redshirted.

ave= "we" value increases until so-jr years then drop some.

low="we" value fr-soph years

tapped out="we" value fr year.



What I mean by "we" value is that if he has high we then expect a bigger increase then lower we.

The proof is in the pudding folks. I had to take a tapped out Te in an emergancy situation. He had about a 40 something we and had pretty significant increases all his fresh year and part of his soph year. I was forced to start him as a 2nd te in the box form.



I have had multiple average pot guys get 50+ for there first few season.



I have heard coaches say so many times that they have above average guys getting stl number.

I personaly have only had one stl player but he also had 65 we as a freshman and is a redshirt senior on my ran macon team. Developed into an animal. But how many of you have taken a stl player with low to ave "we" and just sat around waiting for this kid to kick it into gear.



My final synoposis:

"we" improvement per season.

"pot" for how many seasons you will see improvement at the same rate.

4/14/2010 1:48 PM
infamous_od
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Do the "sky is the limit" guys even exist anymore? I haven't found one in a long time.
4/14/2010 2:48 PM
mach5
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Quote: Originally Posted By infamous_od on 4/14/2010Do the "sky is the limit" guys even exist anymore? I haven't found one in a long time
They're out there.
4/14/2010 5:45 PM
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